Logarithmic Growth Analysis of BTC

The presented logarithmic growth chart of Bitcoin outlines BTC’s long-term trajectory since 2010 and highlights several key zones:

- Pink line ("Overbought") - cycle tops and extreme peaks.

- Purple and blue lines ("Midpoints") - median growth levels BTC tends to revert to during periods of stable appreciation.

- Green line ("Oversold") - cyclical bottom support during bear markets.

Historical Observations:

BTC has consistently followed a long-term logarithmic growth path, with the slope gradually flattening over time.

Each bull cycle has historically culminated near or at the overbought line.

As cycles mature, their amplitude compresses - reflecting Bitcoin’s increasing market cap and structural maturity.

Current Positioning:

As of now, BTC (~$107K) is trading just below the Midpoint 2 (blue line), indicating a structurally healthy position within a sustained long-term uptrend.

Outlook for End of 2025:

Based on historical behavior and trend alignment, the following scenarios are plausible:

- Conservative case: $180K–$220K

- Optimistic case: $250K–$320K

- Base case (most likely): ~$200K–$250K

The logarithmic trend reinforces prior projections and supports a high-probability scenario in which BTC reaches the $200K–$250K range by the end of 2025, assuming continuation of the current market trajectory.

*data: @Alphractal