What’s Next for BTC?

Since early May, $BTC has been exhibiting a strong recovery trend, with the primary driver remaining a steady inflow of capital into spot ETFs. The latest data shows that between May 13 and May 22, over $3.3 billion flowed into the market via IBIT, FBTC, and ARKB combined, despite isolated outflows from Grayscale. Notably, May 22 saw one of the largest single-day net inflows at $934M, a level that historically coincides with local upside momentum.

In addition, the Coinbase Premium remains firmly positive, signaling strong interest from U.S.-based market makers and institutional brokers. This type of “bottom-up” support creates an environment where even pullbacks are seen as opportunities for accumulation.

📊 Technical Structure

On the 1H chart, $BTC has confirmed a breakout above key moving averages:

- 21EMA, 50EMA, and 200EMA are all trending upward and supporting the move.

- The $107.5K level acts as the key weekly VWAP, below which aggressive buying has been observed.

- A new value area high (VAH) at $110.2K and continued holding above $110K indicate a forming upper fair value zone.

In the near term, holding above $107.5K is critical - if ETF inflows continue and the Coinbase premium holds, we could see another push toward 112–115k by the end of the week.

Forecast & Scenarios

Base Case:

- Price consolidates into a strong value zone above 107–110K.

- Next upside target: 115k, followed by 118–120K, where profit-taking may emerge.

Alternative Case:

- If price dips below 107.5K, key support lies at 105K (dWeek VAL).

- A breakdown below that - combined with a pause in ETF inflows, could shift BTC into a range-bound structure.

As long as institutional demand is validated by ETF inflows and the Coinbase premium, BTC retains both technical and flow-based support for continued upside. Active defense of the 107–110K zone and a sustained breakout above VAH open the path toward $115K+ in the short term.