加密老朱

#马斯克概念

News aspect
Musk's 'Heart Certification' for Taki, Meme coins are flowing like rivers.
Core of the event: Musk is soliciting names for Grok's male partner on the X platform; the community proposed 'Taki' (derived from Musk's variant) received his heart emoji reply, triggering a frenzied market interpretation as 'designated'.
Chain reaction:
Ani (AI girlfriend token): Market value skyrocketed to 40 million dollars, a 24-hour surge of 178.7%, once breaking the 50 million mark (currently reported at 48.23 million).
CHAD (male partner prototype coin): Market value soared from 2 million to 2.26 million, an increase of 13%.
Taki's namesake chaotic battle: Multiple 'Taki' tokens suddenly emerge on the Solana chain, fierce speculation, beware of Piyu schemes.

#CPI数据

特朗普与鲍威尔之间，究竟谁更“懂”关税对美国经济和通胀的影响？
随着周二美国略低于预期的美国6月CPI报告发布，特朗普显然认为自己又一次“赢”了；不过从金融市场的表现看，投资者似乎认为：鲍威尔昨晚才是真正的“赢家”——因为对美联储9月降息的预期，在昨夜进一步下降了……
这或许是一幕很有意思的场景，无论是呼吁美联储立刻降息的特朗普，还是今年以来一直谨慎至上按兵不动的美联储，都能从这份最新的6月CPI报告中，寻找到有利于自身立场的说辞……
这背后，显然与6月CPI数据呈现出的最终结果有关。在最受业内人士关注的一组指标中：美国核心CPI环比涨幅虽然不及预期，但确实高于了前月。
数据显示，6月剔除波动较大的食品和能源成本的核心CPI环比上涨了0.2%，略低于经济学家预期0.3%，但高于5月份的0.1%涨幅。

值得一提的是，这已是美国核心CPI环比数据，连续第五个月实际公布值的表现低于市场预期值：

与我们昨日前瞻中设想的局面一样，略低于市场预期的通胀报告，迅速给美国总统特朗普抨击美联储提供了新的“口实”。特朗普在周二数据发布后不久，就再度公开呼吁美联储大幅降息。
特朗普在Truth Social平台上写道：“美联储应将利率下调300个基点。通胀非常低。每年可节省一万亿美元！！！

不过，与特朗普自认为“看懂”CPI支持美联储降息不同的是，昨夜金融市场交易员和华尔街分析师，却似乎认为这份通胀报告，反而更为支持美联储按兵不动的谨慎立场……
周二，美国股债市场在CPI报告发布后双双遭遇了承压。道琼斯工业平均指数收跌逾400点，标普500指数下跌了0.4%。与此同时，30年期美债收益率在周二升破了标志性的5%关口；指标10年期美债收益率上涨6.4个基点，至4.487%，连续四天走高。这一“全球资产定价之锚”盘中早些时候曾触及4.491%的高点，为6月11日以来的最强水平。

降息预期减弱！CPI之夜真正赢家是鲍威尔？
不少业内人士表示，虽然总体通胀数据符合预期，但家具和大型家电等商品价格的上涨表明，特朗普的关税政策可能正在推高美国民众的生活成本。
Principal Asset Management首席全球策略师Seema Shah在周二数据发布后表示，美联储能否降息在很大程度上就取决于周二的通胀数据。由于核心通胀连续第五个月低于预期，最初数据看起来似乎仍未出现美联储所期待的关税引发的通胀提振效应，然而，仔细观察不难发现，随着家居用品、娱乐和服装等类别价格上涨，进口关税正逐步传导至核心商品价格。
事实上，6月美国服装价格环比上涨了0.4%，鞋类价格在连续数月下跌后上涨了0.7%。家具和床上用品价格也上涨0.4%，扭转了5月0.8%的跌幅，这些可能均表明与关税相关的成本压力正开始传导至消费者。
Shah认为，关税的全面通胀影响可能还需要时间显现，特别是在最新关税生效前提前运输了部分商品的情况下。“鉴于更高关税已经公布，美联储至少在未来几个月保持观望将是明智之举。”
Inflation Insights LLC总裁Omair Sharif也指出，剔除汽车的6月核心商品价格上涨了0.55%，创下了2021年11月以来的最高纪录。“今天的报告显示，关税开始产生影响了。”
“鲍威尔在一些事情上一直非常坚持，其中之一就是——通胀正在到来。虽然这份报告中未明显体现出来，但情况正在酝酿，”Bryn Mawr Trust固定收益主管Jim Barnes也写道。
美国银行资产管理公司高级投资策略总监Robert Haworth则表示：“今天的CPI数据——尤其是家电领域的数据——表明我们开始看到关税的影响。”他表示，通胀加速的迹象只会“加剧人们对美联储应采取何种行动的不确定性”。
根据芝加哥商品交易所(CME)的FedWatch工具显示，在CPI报告发布后，投资者对美联储在7月会议上维持利率不变的概率预期升至了97%，高于周一的93%。与此同时，9月降息的可能性在报告发布后大幅下降，在数据发布后就迅速跌破了60%，随后随着市场进一步消化数据，该概率一路下滑至了接近50%。

正如华尔街一再被提醒的，美联储的谨慎立场，不仅源于近期的数据，还源于对特朗普总统不断演变的关税政策不确定性的担忧。
牛津经济研究院首席美国经济学家Ryan Sweet表示，如果特朗普提出的8月1日关税措施生效，商品价格的通胀影响可能还需要数月时间才能显现。目前预测美联储直到12月才会进行下次降息的Sweet指出，这可能使美联储保持观望态度，除非劳动力市场显著走弱。
“如果实施新关税，这可能使下次降息的时间推迟至基线预测之后，”这位经济学家表示。“由于关税的不确定性，美联储可能愿意等待更长时间，然后通过更激进的降息来弥补。
老朱总结：
7月PPI数据（今日20:30公布）→ 若超预期将巩固“按兵不动”预期
美联储褐皮书（明日02:00）→ 观测区域性关税影响
特朗普“小国关税信函”细节 → 全球贸易链风险二次发酵
国今夜表决：加密行业生死48小时！
众议院将于7月17日（今夜）二次表决三项史诗级法案，若通过将引爆核弹级行情
《GENIUS法案》：稳定币发行权收归美联储，USDT、USDC面临“持牌绞杀”
《反CBDC法案》：永久禁止美联储发行数字美元，特朗普政府狙击全球央行数字货币霸权
《CLARITY法案》：要求SEC、CFTC明确代币分类，以太坊现货ETF审批或加速！
关注老朱带你今晚带你深度分析、实操教程

#美联储何时降息？
The dollar's rebound is just the calm before the storm, as whale funds are seizing the opportunity to adjust their positions, sparking a new wave of cryptocurrency surges!
The latest report from Michael Pfister of Deutsche Bank Research is like a deep-water bomb: the dollar may technically rebound in the short term, but a Fed rate cut in September is a foregone conclusion, compounded by Trump's ongoing attacks on the Fed's independence; any recovery in the dollar will be 'temporary and fragile'!
At this moment, an epic game that determines the flow of wealth is unfolding—smart money has begun to act!
The truth behind the dollar's 'false rebound': interest rate cuts loom, and Trump is the biggest variable

#比特币

Led by the son of the U.S. Secretary of Commerce and joined by Bitcoin godfather Adam Back, a capital game that will rewrite financial history has officially started — are your positions ready?

Insider trading: $4 billion BTC changes hands, Wall Street giants gobble up chips
Epic delivery: Cantor's SPAC (Cantor Equity Partners 1) acquires 30,000 Bitcoins from Blockstream founder Adam Back for a whopping $4 billion, after the transaction, the entity will be renamed BSTR Holdings and plans to raise another $800 million to aggressively purchase 147.
Core power linkage: Trader Brandon Lutnick is the son of U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick, and Adam Back is the only scientist mentioned in the Bitcoin white paper (the inventor of Hashcash), making this a handover with the 'purest Bitcoin lineage'.

#数字货币超话
Old Zhu has spent the whole morning bringing the latest news on the dynamics of the cryptocurrency field for everyone, without further ado, let's get straight to the point.

1. White House AI and cryptocurrency director: The Trump administration plans to ban the issuance of CBDCs.
2. The Pantu Bitcoin ETF will be listed on July 18, becoming the first of its kind in Hong Kong this year.
3. JPMorgan CEO: Will participate in stablecoin and JPMorgan deposit coin related businesses.
4. Bitcoin faces a 'survival threat,' with a new proposal to freeze quantum vulnerable Bitcoins like those of Satoshi Nakamoto.
5. The UK releases a digital strategy for wholesale financial markets, promoting DLT and stablecoin innovation.

#巨鲸
A tweet set off the crypto world. James Wynn, the "God of Gamblers" who once lost $100 million in a single day, made another crazy prediction that the market is about to experience a dramatic change.
News:

According to BlockBeats, on July 16, the well-known whale trader James Wynn released a major tweet, claiming that Bitcoin will hit its historical peak of $145,000 at the end of July, and then plummet to $110,000.
Immediately afterwards, an epic altcoin bull market will break out in August and September, and after the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates in the fourth quarter, Bitcoin will embark on its ultimate sprint - heading straight for $240,000!

Lao Zhu's analysis:

#币安Alpha上新
Exclusive revelation: the rise of the White House crypto empire and the power reshuffling in the crypto circle.

A mysterious $2 billion transaction 'sleeps' in Binance wallets, generating $30 million in annual profits for the Trump family - this is just the tip of the iceberg of the crypto alliance between Binance and the White House.
Technical blood transfusion: Binance has personally forged the foundation of the presidential family's stablecoin.
Three directly informed sources revealed that Binance's engineering team secretly wrote the core smart contract code for USD, supporting the underlying lifeblood of the Trump family's World Liberty Financial (WLF) stablecoin.

#关税大战

On July 14, the same day that Trump threatened to impose a 100% "secondary tariff" on Russia, the price of Bitcoin quietly hit a record high! Behind this coincidence, global capital is voting with real money - when the US tariff hammer hits Russia, China, India and other trading partners, tens of trillions of dollars are frantically looking for pressure-resistant containers, and Bitcoin has become the number one target.

1. 100% Tariff Nuclear Explosion: The Eve of the Explosion of the Global Trade Landscape
"Secondary tariffs" are aimed at Russian oil buyers in China, India and other countries: Trump has given Russia and Ukraine 50 days (before September 2) to force a ceasefire, otherwise he will impose a 100% punitive tariff on third countries that purchase Russian oil and natural gas, directly impacting giants such as China (accounting for 35% of Russia's seaborne crude oil) and India.

#ETH（二饼）

Latest Market News
Current price: 3,121 USDT (24-hour increase +3.58%)
ETH/BTC exchange rate: 0.0267 (6.01% surge in 24 hours), strongly outperforming Bitcoin!
News: Institutional whales’ “buy, buy, buy” vs. “lock in profits”
Institutions are frantically hoarding goods:
SharpLink spent another $15.86 million to buy 5,188 ETH 10 hours ago. In 30 days, it has accumulated 300,000 ETH (average price $2,701) and made a floating profit of $130 million!
A mysterious whale withdrew 80,000 ETH (worth $251 million) from Kraken at an average price of only $2,801, clearly locking up the funds and waiting for takeoff.
The take-profit signal emerges:
Trend Research (owned by boss Jack Yi) started to unload leverage after the price broke $3,100: it sold 22,289 ETH (about $68.55 million) today to repay the loan and put the money in pocket.

#CPI数据

The world holds its breath! The U.S. June CPI year-on-year rate is 2.7%, monthly rate is 0.3%, precisely hitting expectations, but the devil is in the details: core inflation soars to 3%, a tariff powder keg has been ignited (Trump threatens 30% tariffs on Europe and Mexico, 100% on Russia, countdown begins!).
Strangely, the market reaction is a split between hot and cold: Bitcoin spikes to 117,000 (single-day liquidations of 684 million), while Ethereum stubbornly defends the 3000 level! Behind the narrowing decline of 0.97%—is it a conspiracy by the main players to cover their buying?
News:
The Fed's 'smoke screen': is a September rate cut a trap for retail investors?

#美联邦利率决议;
The Powell Era Ends! Trump's 'Crypto President' plan exposed, countdown to Bitcoin at $200,000?

The Federal Reserve's power succession process has suddenly started, and a monetary flood sweeping the globe is rushing out of Washington—Is your Bitcoin wallet ready?
U.S. Treasury Secretary Basent today dropped a financial nuclear bomb: the formal selection process for the successor to Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has begun, and it will be 'carried out at Trump's speed'! No sooner had he finished speaking than the crypto market surged with undercurrents. This power earthquake, warned by Deutsche Bank as 'potentially triggering a 4% one-day drop in the dollar,' coincides with Bitcoin just breaking the historical high of $120,000—coincidence or fate?

#马斯克概念

Musk once again transforms into 'crypto circle nuclear button', his xAI suddenly launched AI companion features on July 14, gothic anime character Ani with 'NSFW mode' (adult content mode) enters the market, related Meme coins surged 900% within 24 hours, on-chain AI girlfriend sector trading volume skyrocketed 300%! Old Zhu takes you through the wind, dissecting the traps of getting rich
Who is Ani? 3 major highlights that the crypto world must know
AI erotic economy nuclear bomb: Ani's design directly hits the gold mine for otaku - golden twin tails, black silk gothic skirt, characters in lingerie under NSFW mode, supports voice flirting and real-time action feedback. Musk personally promotes it: 'This is so cool!'

Greed is not a mistake, but fearless greed is very dangerous! With the current market temperature, will you choose to ride the wave of emotions or start buckling up and consider taking profits in batches? Especially for those who have already made gains... Don't forget, the real winners often have already thought of an exit strategy during the market's frenzy. Follow me, and in the next issue, let's talk about the 'defensive counter-strategy under high greed index'. How can we not miss opportunities while others are greedy and still protect our profits! Friends, what is your current position management strategy? Let's discuss in the comments! 🔥

套牢不可怕，可怕的是装死躺平——币圈只有活韭菜，没有死多头！”

一、为啥你被套成粽子？真相扎心！
FOMO追高，狗庄割菜：
牛市顶峰冲进去，结果买在珠穆朗玛峰（案例：2025年5月BTC冲高6.3万刀后暴跌12%，12.9万人爆仓7.44亿12）。
老朱暴论：90%的套牢都是贪心作祟，听信“再不买就错过”的鬼话！
死扛止损，越套越深：
跌破关键支撑位还幻想反弹，结果账户缩水50%才哭爹喊娘（案例：2025年6月BTC跌破10万刀后插针至8.8万，杠杆党集体归零）。
二、解套狠招：对号入座，刀刀见血！
📌 老朱原则：能割肉时别断臂，能翻身时别装死！
【轻套党：亏＜20%】
止损换仓：
立马割肉！把烂票换成BTC/ETH等龙头，牛市里龙头反弹最快（例：SOL暴跌后3天反弹40%，垃圾币原地躺尸）。
日内做T：
震荡行情中，跌5%补仓，涨3%就抛，反复摩擦降成本（工具：用CiaoTool设自动化网格）。
【中套党：亏20%-50%】
对冲保命：
跨所现货对冲：交易所A低价补仓，交易所B高价抛货，锁定价差（例：A所BTC便宜50刀，瞬间套利）。
现货+合约对冲：现货被套时，开等量空单对冲，暴跌时空单赚的补现货亏的。
分批补刀：
每跌15%补一次仓，子弹分3次打（例：10万刀成本，跌到8.5万补第一枪，7.2万再补）。
【深套党：亏＞50%】
断臂求生：
基本面崩盘的项目（如空气币、跑路盘）直接割肉！留青山在不怕没柴烧。
质押躺平：
把币扔进交易所质押生息（年化5%-20%），用利息回血，等牛市翻身。

三、防套心法：老朱的保命底线！
仓位暴论：
“单币别超总仓10%，山寨别超5%！ 重仓梭哈=主动当烈士。”
止损铁律：
BTC/ETH：跌破10日线割一半，破30日线全清！
山寨币：亏损10%立即割，别等归零。
杠杆禁忌：
“合约是高手的印钞机，新手的碎钞机！” 非专业玩家别碰10倍以上杠杆。
#BTC

想亲眼见证老朱如何用对冲大法3天解套50万刀？今晚20点，直播间实盘拆解‘多空双吃’战术！关注上车，限100个名额——手慢的只能蹲墙角哭

Core event: Trump's team urgently clarifies its policy towards Russia, switching from threatening '100% secondary tariffs' to 'secondary sanctions' in an instant. This is essentially a financial nuclear bomb level suppression—it's not as simple as raising tariffs; it aims to cut off Russia's global financial lifeline and force countries to take sides!
If this big bear (Russia) is truly kicked out of the dollar system, cryptocurrency channels will inevitably become a means of capital escape. Referencing the scenario during the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, BTC, ETH, and XMR (Monero) may replicate the safe-haven buying.
Stablecoin dark clouds: Tether, the issuer of USDT, has 40% of its reserves in U.S. Treasury bonds. If the U.S. government aggressively pushes for sanctions on on-chain entities, the redemption risk of USDT will surge. Smart money has started to move towards decentralized stablecoins like DAI and FRAX.

CPI eve sees a tug of war between bulls and bears; how will BTC move after breaking $120,000?
CPI will ignite the market tonight:
The US June core CPI expected to be released tonight is projected to hit 2.9%-3.0% (returning to the '3 era')57. The key question is whether tariff inflation will truly explode—if furniture, cars, and toys, which have been taxed, collectively increase in price, it would dampen expectations for interest rate cuts. The market's expectation for a rate cut in September has dropped from 'set in stone' to about 70%. If tonight's data exceeds expectations, the likelihood of a September rate cut will basically cool down4710.
BTC broke $120,000, but don't FOMO:
Yesterday, BTC surged to $123,000, setting a new historical high, with institutional buying of ETFs being the main driving force (a net inflow of $1.18 billion in a single day last week, a new high for the year)69.

Not smashing early or late, but choosing to sell when BTC breaks the new high of 120,000 and retraces (more on that later). Whales are also afraid of missing out! But dumping so much at once, the short-term psychological impact > actual selling pressure. Brothers, the whales are waking up, it's not that the bull is dead, but a reminder for us not to lose our minds.

Follow Lao Zhu for first-hand information and in-depth analysis!