CPI eve sees a tug of war between bulls and bears; how will BTC move after breaking $120,000?
CPI will ignite the market tonight:
The US June core CPI expected to be released tonight is projected to hit 2.9%-3.0% (returning to the '3 era')57. The key question is whether tariff inflation will truly explode—if furniture, cars, and toys, which have been taxed, collectively increase in price, it would dampen expectations for interest rate cuts. The market's expectation for a rate cut in September has dropped from 'set in stone' to about 70%. If tonight's data exceeds expectations, the likelihood of a September rate cut will basically cool down4710.
BTC broke $120,000, but don't FOMO:
Yesterday, BTC surged to $123,000, setting a new historical high, with institutional buying of ETFs being the main driving force (a net inflow of $1.18 billion in a single day last week, a new high for the year)69.
But old Zhu reminds: This surge is accompanied by a total of 129,000 people being liquidated across the network, totaling $744 million, with shorts being wiped out by 80%6. It is clearly a forced short squeeze by the market maker, and the risk of chasing highs in the short term is extremely high.
Policy support is backing it up:
The United States enters 'Cryptocurrency Legislation Week' this week. If three key bills (stablecoin regulation, anti-CBDC monitoring, etc.) pass, the compliance channel will be completely opened. Trump has also declared himself the 'crypto president,' and his company has applied for a crypto ETF, with political and business forces supporting the market at 69. Regulatory thawing is the foundation for a long-term bull market.
Signals of altcoin rotation have appeared:
XRP: Stabilizing at $2.98, the technical indicators are moving into an upward channel. Support at $2.86, breaking through $3.05 could target $3.353.
ETH and SOL are rising: ETH rose 18% this week, with funds flowing out of BTC into mainstream altcoins, but sustainability is in doubt (if the CPI is negative, altcoins will drop harder).
Position management life and death line:
Spot traders: Maintain a bottom line of $100,000, and on pullbacks, gradually accumulate mainstream coins (ETH, SOL preferred).
Contract traders: Clear leverage before CPI! Data volatility is expected to exceed 30%, and high leverage will definitely explode.
Confused party: Focus on policy-related coins (such as Ripple's application for a banking license6), and avoid high-inflation sensitive projects.
Conclusion:
Bull market? Bear market? It's all a gambling market! Keep a close eye on $112,000 tonight—if we hold, it's a gold mountain; if we don't, it's a grave mountain! For those wanting to survive, quickly tune into Old Zhu's live stream, as I will guide you to seize the opportunity during the CPI shock!
