小镇交易家

The core of the #交易类型入门 trading type introduction is to clarify the purpose and risks. It is mainly divided into three categories:
1. Investment type: Focus on the long term (such as stocks, bonds), emphasize fundamentals, pursue asset appreciation and dividends.
2. Speculation/Trading type: Emphasize the medium to short term (such as day trading, swing trading), utilize price fluctuations (stocks, foreign exchange, commodities, derivatives), commonly use technical analysis, and have higher risks.
3. Arbitrage type: Capture temporary price differences between markets (cross-market, cross-period, etc.), with relatively controllable risks but high demands on speed and strategy.

The key to entry: Choose the type that fits your own goals, time, and risk tolerance, solidly learn the basics, prioritize small-scale experimentation, strictly control risks (stop-loss!), and avoid blindly following trends. Acting within your means is a strict rule.
Core points condensed:
Classification: Investment (long-term), speculation/trading (medium to short-term), arbitrage (price difference).
Key: Clarify goals, match risk tolerance, learn the basics, small-scale experimentation, strict risk control (especially stop-loss).
Warning: Do not blindly follow trends, act within your means.

#币安Alpha上新 can't afford three BNB, only have 1000 USDT, should I still participate in today's new offering?

Ethereum, as the core of the smart contract ecosystem, maintains its leading position in the public chain thanks to its high developer activity and vast DeFi/NFT application network. Its technology iteration roadmap is clear: PoS upgrade enhances energy efficiency, Rollups layer scaling alleviates Gas pain points, and account abstraction optimizes user experience. However, it faces performance bottlenecks in Layer 1, concerns over staking centralization, and regulatory scrutiny regarding 'securities attributes.' In the long run, if EIP-4844 shard and L2 ecosystem collaboration breaks through, Ethereum may become the preferred foundational layer for Web3 infrastructure, but it must balance innovation with compliance to respond to the competition from high-performance chains like Solana. Technological accumulation and ecological barriers remain its moat.

$USDC USDC serves as a benchmark for compliant stablecoins, building trust with a 1:1 dollar reserve and monthly audit transparency, becoming a core liquidity tool in DeFi and the preferred choice for institutions. Its advantages include: 1. Strong regulatory endorsement, issued jointly by Circle and Coinbase, with compliant banks holding cash and short-term US treasury bonds; 2. Multi-chain support (ERC20/SPL, etc.) to adapt to diverse payment scenarios; 3. Real-time cross-border settlement with very low costs. However, one must be cautious of centralization risks: issuers can freeze addresses, and reserve assets are still affected by the traditional financial system (such as the Silicon Valley Bank collapse incident). In the future, USDC may face dual challenges from CBDC competition and tightening regulations, but in the short term, it will continue to dominate the compliant stablecoin market.

Ethereum Security Program #以太坊安全计划 focuses on technological upgrades and ecological protection: 1. Strengthening the consensus layer, continuously optimizing the randomness of verification nodes in the PoS mechanism to resist Sybil attacks; 2. Upgrading the smart contract security toolchain, implementing a formal verification framework for Solidity, allowing developers to pre-check for reentrancy vulnerabilities; 3. Anti-quantum computing threats, developing post-quantum signature algorithms based on STARKs; 4. Establishing Layer 2 security standards, mandating OP/zk-Rollups to set up escape pod mechanisms; 5. The community initiates the 'White Hat Circuit Breaker' protocol, automatically freezing abnormal on-chain transactions and triggering governance votes. Security is the lifeline of public chains, requiring coordinated defense of both software and hardware.

The #稳定币日常支付 stablecoin, leveraging the stability of pegged fiat currencies, is gradually penetrating everyday payment scenarios. Its advantages include: 1. Eliminating the price volatility risk of cryptocurrencies, supporting small and frequent purchases such as coffee and online shopping; 2. Cross-border payments are received in seconds with fees only 1/10 of traditional SWIFT; 3. DeFi protocols enable automatic salary payments and bill deductions through smart contracts. Currently, compliant stablecoins like USDC and BUSD have been integrated with Visa cards and e-commerce platforms. Users need to be aware of the transparency of issuers and the risk of on-chain address freezes. The future integration of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDC) and compliant stablecoins may reshape the global payment ecosystem.

Reflections after a major trading loss: 1. Imbalanced position management, with a single bet exceeding 20% of the principal, resulting in severe injury from a single mistake; 2. Emotion-driven trading, retaliatory opening after consecutive stop losses, uncontrolled leverage magnifying risk exposure; 3. Obsession with averaging down, speculating on a rebound even after Bitcoin fell below the EMA30 moving average, leading to a tripling of losses. Blood and tears lesson: Always use 5% of the principal for trial trades, recognize losses at breakout, and leave enough defensive space to avoid fatal drawdowns. Respect the market, be patient in accumulation, and you can survive amidst volatility.

Bitcoin, as the first decentralized digital currency, embodies both technological innovation and financial disruption. Its fixed total supply, anti-inflation properties, and global liquidity establish its status as 'digital gold'. Currently, it faces challenges from tightening regulation, energy disputes, and technological iterations, but the entry of institutions, approval of spot ETFs, and increasing geopolitical risks have boosted its demand as a safe haven. In the long term, Bitcoin may become a store of value outside of sovereign currency systems, but its high price volatility, network congestion, and the risk of a 51% attack still require caution. Its future direction depends on breakthroughs in technological scalability, the degree of integration with mainstream finance, and the collaborative dynamics of global regulatory frameworks, fundamentally remaining an experimental hedge between trust mechanisms and centralized systems.

#美国加密立法 The recent acceleration of U.S. cryptocurrency legislation has led to a tug-of-war between the two parties over the regulatory framework, with the core issue being the balance between innovation and risk. The SEC's strengthened enforcement has triggered a backlash from the industry, while proposals such as the '21st Century Financial Innovation and Technology Act' attempt to clarify the classification of digital assets and the jurisdictional division between the CFTC and SEC. However, there are significant disagreements between the two parties on investor protection, DeFi regulation, and stablecoin rules. Under the pressure of global regulatory competition, U.S. legislation needs to seek a balance between preventing systemic risk, anti-money laundering, and maintaining technological leadership. The enactment of the bill may reshape the industry landscape, but the dual variables of the political cycle and technological iteration still leave the final path uncertain.

Bitcoin has recently shown an intensifying trend of volatility, with prices influenced by a multitude of factors: the nearing end of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike cycle and fluctuations in the dollar index weaken its safe-haven attributes, while escalating geopolitical risks stimulate some capital inflow into crypto assets; the U.S. SEC's stance on the approval of spot ETFs remains a key policy variable, and the pace of institutional entry has slowed; on-chain data shows an increase in the proportion of long-term holders, with the market entering a stage of existing stock competition. In the short term, technical support around $40,000 is relatively strong, but the liquidity contraction in a high-interest rate environment may suppress rebound potential. In the medium to long term, it still relies on the narrative of the halving cycle and the process of compliance, and one must be cautious of the risks of severe volatility caused by regulatory uncertainty and leveraged liquidations.

The U.S. tariff increase of #美国加征关税 is essentially a unilateral means of trade protectionism. In the short term, it may protect domestic industries, but in the long run, it will drive up domestic inflation, weaken consumer purchasing power, and exacerbate global supply chain distortions. History has shown that tariff barriers often provoke retaliatory actions from trade partners, creating a vicious cycle that ultimately harms the economic interests of all parties involved. As the world's second-largest economy, China has a complete industrial system and domestic demand market, allowing it to hedge external pressures through diversified cooperation and technological innovation. The real solution should be based on multilateral consultations under the WTO framework, rather than zero-sum games. In the context of globalization, cooperation and win-win outcomes are the sustainable path.

The recent Bitcoin (BTC) price has slightly corrected after breaking through the $100,000 mark, currently reported at about $102,162. Short-term technical indicators (such as RSI) show signs of being overbought and may face adjustment pressure. Institutional funds continue to flow in, with BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF seeing a net inflow of over $5 billion for 20 consecutive days, supporting market confidence. On-chain data shows that whale addresses are accumulating, and long-term holders are not mass-selling, indicating a healthy market structure. Macroeconomic factors such as easing tariffs between China and the U.S. and expectations regarding Federal Reserve policies are favorable for risk assets, but the market greed index has reached 70, warranting caution for short-term volatility. In the medium to long term, if Bitcoin stabilizes above $100,000, it may further challenge $120,000.

#加密圆桌会议要点 Below are the key points from the U.S. SEC cryptocurrency roundtable on May 12, 2025, focusing on tokenization and new regulatory directions:

### **1. Potential and Advantages of Tokenization**
- **Increased Liquidity**: Tokenization can break down low liquidity assets like real estate and private equity, attracting more investors.
- **Automation of Smart Contracts**: Such as automatic dividends and voting, reducing intermediary costs.
- **New Market Activities**: Blockchain technology may give rise to innovative securities applications not covered by existing SEC rules.

### **2. New SEC Regulatory Framework**
- **Farewell to “Enforcement Regulation”**: SEC Chairman Paul Atkins criticized former Chairman Gensler's “enforcement first, inquiry later” model, promising to provide clear guidance through rulemaking and exemption policies.
- **Issuance Reform**: Adjusting traditional securities registration forms (like S-1), simplifying crypto asset disclosure requirements, and exploring safe harbor policies.
- **Custody Relaxation**: Abolishing SAB 121, which hinders banks from custodizing crypto assets, and researching self-custody solutions and qualified custodian standards.
- **Trading Innovations**: Allowing brokers to offer “paired trading” of securities and non-securities (like cryptocurrencies), supporting a “super app” model.

### **3. Participation of Institutions and Traditional Finance**
- **Institutions like BlackRock, Fidelity, and Nasdaq** attended, indicating a growing interest in tokenization on Wall Street.
- **On-chain Securities Trend**: Drawing a parallel to the transformation of the music industry from vinyl to digital, tokenizing securities may reshape issuance and trading methods.

### **4. Policy and Market Impact**
- **Collaboration with the Trump Administration**: Atkins emphasized working with the government to position the U.S. as the “global crypto capital,” promoting regulatory friendliness.
- **Market Reaction**: After the meeting, Bitcoin briefly rose by 3%, and crypto-related stocks (like Coinbase) followed suit, reflecting market optimism towards regulatory clarity.

### **5. Future Directions**
- **Acceleration of Real Asset Tokenization**: For instance, BlackRock may lead innovations like on-chain U.S. stocks.
- **Institutional Capital Inflow**: Regulatory easing could drive more crypto ETFs and the integration of blockchain technology into traditional financial products.

This meeting marks a shift for the SEC from strict enforcement to framework building, which may profoundly influence the integration process between the crypto market and traditional finance.

#CPI数据来袭 【CPI Data is Coming: Short-term Fluctuations Do Not Change the Long-term Trend】

The CPI data for May is about to be released, and the market generally expects a slight decline in the year-on-year growth rate, but the core CPI remains sticky. If the data exceeds expectations, it may strengthen the Federal Reserve's wait-and-see stance and delay interest rate cuts; if it meets or falls below expectations, risk assets may see a rebound. Currently, the decline in energy prices and high service costs are pulling in different directions. It is recommended that investors: 1) be wary of short-term fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields after the data is released; 2) pay attention to the guidance of core inflation sub-items on the policy path; 3) maintain a view of an upward shift in the inflation center under the reconstruction of the global supply chain in the medium to long term. Data disturbances are unlikely to change the main logic of "higher for longer", so flexibility in the portfolio should be maintained.

$BTC Bitcoin (BTC), as the leader of the crypto market, carries both high risks and high volatility. In the short term, it is dominated by Federal Reserve policies, institutional capital flows, and market sentiment. If macro liquidity improves (such as through interest rate cuts), it may drive a rebound. Long-term value depends on global regulatory progress, institutional adoption, and technological upgrades (such as Layer 2 scaling). However, its speculative nature remains strong, and caution is needed for black swan events (such as exchange collapses or regulatory crackdowns). Investors should manage their positions carefully and view its dual nature as 'digital gold' and a risk asset rationally.

The easing of the trade war helps to alleviate global supply chain pressures, reduce corporate costs, and boost market confidence. In the short term, tariff concessions from both sides can promote the recovery of imports and exports, benefiting the manufacturing and consumer sectors; in the medium to long term, it is necessary to observe whether structural contradictions (such as technological competition and industrial subsidies) are truly resolved. China can take this window period to deepen reform and opening up, strengthen multilateral cooperation, and accelerate the independent control of core technologies to cope with future uncertainties. However, the trend of normalizing trade frictions remains unchanged, and companies still need to prepare for risk hedging.

Ethereum (ETH) recently broke through $2500, mainly driven by the successful Ethereum Pectra upgrade, the revival of the DeFi ecosystem (TVL reached $80 billion), and the inflow of institutional funds. The technical outlook shows strong short-term momentum, but caution is needed near the 200-day moving average ($2426) resistance and regulatory risks (such as SEC investigations). If it holds above $2500, it may target the $2800-3000 range, but the risk of a high-level pullback still exists, especially if competing chains (like Solana) divert funds or market sentiment shifts. In the long term, network upgrades and staking growth may support prices, but volatility is expected to persist.

$XRP XRP (Ripple) has experienced significant price fluctuations recently, with the current trading price around $2.1-$2.3, significantly influenced by market sentiment, regulatory developments, and on-chain activities. Analysts have diverging predictions for May 2025, with conservative estimates ranging from $0.7 to $4, while optimistic forecasts (such as EGRAG CRYPTO) even bullishly project up to $30, mainly based on technical patterns (like the Fibonacci 1.618 level) and potential SEC lawsuit settlements. In the short term, if it breaks below the $2 support, it may drop to $1, but breaking through the $2.6 resistance could trigger a new round of increases. The RLUSD stablecoin launched by Ripple may impact XRP's long-term positioning, requiring close attention to regulatory dynamics and market capital flows.

There is currently a divergence in the market regarding whether the altcoin season will arrive in 2025. Some viewpoints suggest that, due to Bitcoin's dominance (BTC.D) remaining high (around 55%-60%) and the lack of liquidity in altcoins, a full altcoin season may not reoccur, with only localized opportunities. However, on-chain data shows that if BTC.D falls below 50%, and the ETH/BTC exchange rate recovers, coupled with the inflow of stablecoins (USDT.D) into altcoins, it could trigger a phase of market activity. Key indicators include capital outflow effects, altcoin market capitalization momentum, and narrative themes (such as AI, RWA, Meme coins). Currently, it is essential to observe changes in macro liquidity and market sentiment.

The current Bitcoin (BTC) price of $BTC has surpassed the $100,000 mark, driven by multiple factors:
1. **Institutional Funds Inflow**: Asset management giants like BlackRock continue to increase their BTC holdings, with net inflows of over $4 billion in spot ETFs in a single week, and institutional holdings accounting for 8%.
2. **Policy Benefits**: New Hampshire has legislated support for Bitcoin reserves, and the Trump administration has sent crypto-friendly signals, boosting market confidence.
3. **Technical Breakthroughs**: BTC has stabilized at key support levels, with MACD and Bollinger Bands indicating short-term pullback risks, but on-chain data (such as MVRV ratio) reflects that the market is still in a healthy stage.
4. **Geopolitical and Liquidity Factors**: Rising expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, combined with the India-Pakistan conflict heightening demand for safe-haven assets, strengthen the narrative of BTC as “digital gold.”

Short-term bullish sentiment is strong, but caution is needed regarding high leverage risks, regulatory uncertainties, and large whale sell-offs.