#CPI数据来袭 【CPI Data is Coming: Short-term Fluctuations Do Not Change the Long-term Trend】

The CPI data for May is about to be released, and the market generally expects a slight decline in the year-on-year growth rate, but the core CPI remains sticky. If the data exceeds expectations, it may strengthen the Federal Reserve's wait-and-see stance and delay interest rate cuts; if it meets or falls below expectations, risk assets may see a rebound. Currently, the decline in energy prices and high service costs are pulling in different directions. It is recommended that investors: 1) be wary of short-term fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields after the data is released; 2) pay attention to the guidance of core inflation sub-items on the policy path; 3) maintain a view of an upward shift in the inflation center under the reconstruction of the global supply chain in the medium to long term. Data disturbances are unlikely to change the main logic of "higher for longer", so flexibility in the portfolio should be maintained.