玩币猎手

Today we continue to capture the market's motives with the mindset of a dealer

First, we need to understand the market reaction brought by the breakthrough at 95K

Before the 95K breakthrough, the market feared the rise because there was strong pressure, but no effective rising structure. However, after the 95K breakthrough on Friday night, things started to get interesting; the upper space opened up, and retail investors began to think about buying on the dip and taking off

So today, the weekend's gradual decline went unnoticed as a problem by anyone.

The dealer's purpose has three points

1. To make retail investors believe that the space above 95 is opening up

2. To force short positions to stop losses

3. To lure in buying on the pullback

Now let's return to the actual market and take a look; just a simple glance shows that the position at 945 has formed a smooth support, with a bullish flag pattern forming, combined with a triangular convergence of oscillation; technically, the MACD golden cross is present, and notably, a large number of retail investors have entered. Coupled with the repeated friction at 95 last night, the pressure on high positions has been fully loaded, which means that currently, only retail investors are going long, and no retail investors are going short.

Conclusion: Gradually trapping retail long positions step by step, luring them in batches at 945, 935, 930, 926, and finally completing a rapid spike at the 930-926 stage, completely cleaning out retail long positions, and only then can we start the second push towards 95K and ultimately stabilize above 95K.

Based on the conclusion, our approach is very simple, foolproof operation

Based on the current gradual decline to lure retail long positions, we will short near 945 against retail at around 942, with a stop loss at 955. At the position of 926-930, short positions can choose to take profit and then prepare to catch the spike.

Based on the spike action at 926, we will catch the spike at 913-910, with a stop loss at 90K, and choose to reduce positions for protection near 95K. Finally, through a week's box oscillation, we will achieve a breakthrough for a real rise above 95K, with upper targets of 98K-100K.

The group concentrated around Pi coin consists of elderly individuals and mothers in small towns and counties. This demographic typically has an elementary school education level, and their understanding of internet applications is limited to the stage of cutting prices on platforms like Pinduoduo. Their knowledge of blockchain is still superstitious, equating Pi coin with Bitcoin. Can you expect such a group to promote Pi coin in a way that guides blockchain reform? The underlying structure of Pi has already determined that this is a harvest feast; it lacks endorsements and the necessary environment, resulting in garbage that may end up being even more tragic than the MEME series. I shouldn't say this, but if Pi coin experiences significant fluctuations during its mainnet stage, the next day, the elderly will be parading with banners demanding their hard-earned money back. I really can't believe how many years these tiered agents of Pi coin will have to endure.

#美国大选后涨或跌？

View on Bitcoin Market During Election Phase——

In previous articles, including over the weekend, I mentioned a key point that the market during the election phase will revolve around 68800. Both sides can choose operations based on this standard point. On Monday, Bitcoin bounced around 68800, showing numerous wounds, with a clear intention that the market is about to start, not providing a comfortable position for operations.

My article over the weekend also focused on this point, advising everyone to short at 68800, and to continue shorting if it breaks above 69200 and then falls back.

Combining the weekend's market rebound from the support level of 67500 after a peak-to-bottom conversion, then on Monday, breaking through and oscillating around 68800 without accelerating, and then accelerating through 67500 again in the early hours of Tuesday before rebounding, currently all short-term support and resistance levels have become ineffective, and the market has entered an uncontrolled phase. The purpose of this loss of control is also to prevent retail investors from participating.

Since we understand that the market's intention is to prevent retail investors from participating, today we need to find which positions can still allow retail investors to operate, and these positions will definitely be broken.

Currently, the visible position is the resistance of the downtrend line at 69200, which is the last point to short in the short term.

Subsequent market prediction:

If the market continues to decline, then tonight until tomorrow, Bitcoin will need to break upwards through 69200, triggering stop-loss orders for short positions, but it will not reach 71600. Because 71600 is a signal point for the previous reversal downtrend. If it can go up to this level, the area of 71800-72100 is the top range, and many short positions will still enter, directly causing losses.

So now the thinking is clear: it will break through 69200 but will not touch 71600. We can choose to operate in the middle positions.

Short at 70500-70800, with a stop-loss at 71600. Once it goes above 71800, no more shorting should be done.

If the market does not provide the 70500-70800 position to enter short, then after breaking upwards through 69200, we will wait for it to drop back to 69200-68800 before entering short.

Finally, a side note: don't think about bottoming out Ethereum; the bottom for Ethereum has been too obvious. You are still fantasizing about Ethereum's rebound, giving the probability of a rebound, and the hope of bottoming out, but the result can only be that it buries those who try to bottom out.

Views on Bitcoin Market During the Election Phase——

In previous articles, including over the weekend, I mentioned a key point: during the election phase, the market will focus on 68800, a level that both bulls and bears can use to make trading decisions. On Monday, Bitcoin bounced around 68800, creating a lot of volatility, with a clear intention to start the market, not allowing for comfortable trading positions.

My weekend article also focused on this point, advising everyone to short at 68800, and to continue shorting if it breaks above 69200 and then drops back.

Combined with the weekend market, which rebounded from the support level of 67500, and then Monday saw 68800 being pierced and fluctuating without acceleration, Tuesday early morning saw it accelerate through 67500 before rebounding. Currently, all short-term support and resistance levels have failed, and the market has entered a stage of loss of control. The purpose of this loss of control is also to prevent retail investors from participating.

Since we understand that the market's intention is to exclude retail investors, today we need to find out which levels still allow retail investors to trade, and those levels will definitely be broken.

The current visible level is the downward trendline resistance at 69200; this is the last point for shorting in the short term.

Future market predictions:

If the market is going to decline unilaterally, then tonight until tomorrow, Bitcoin needs to break above 69200, triggering stop-losses for short positions, but it won't reach 71600. This is because 71600 was a reversal point for the previous drop, and if it can go up to this level, the range above 71800-72100 is the upper limit, where a lot of short positions will enter, resulting in them getting trapped.

So now the thought process is clear: it will break 69200 but won't touch 71600. We can choose to operate at the intermediate levels.

Short at 70500-70800, with a stop-loss at 71600. Once it goes above 71800, no more shorting allowed.

If the market doesn't give the opportunity to short at 70500-70800, then after breaking above 69200, we will wait for it to drop back to 69200-68800 to short.

Lastly, a quick note: don't think about bottom-fishing Ethereum; the bottom for Ethereum is too obvious. You might still be fantasizing about Ethereum catching up, giving a probability for a rebound, and hope for bottom-fishing, but the result will only trap those who try to catch the bottom.

三件事，大家串起来，态势真的很明朗了。

  上周三，哈里斯赢下摇摆州，胜率反超特朗普，美股开始延续下跌。

  上周五，非农数据一改往日造假风格，就业只有1.2万人。

   周一，白宫通过一项紧急法案，允许联邦军队根据情况在未经政府授权的情况下，控制暴乱。

   从美股的动作来看，特朗普派系的资本已经感知到败选风险，想跑路。

   从非农的数据来看，之前造假是为了不惜代价赢选票，赢了自己再收拾烂摊子，输了这烂摊子留给特朗普，从逻辑上说，除非民主党已经认为自己胜券在握，否则在大选这个敏感阶段，干嘛要自爆给出这么低的就业数据？所以从非农的角度，美国的官僚体系也认可哈里斯要上台了，现在要开始收拾之前造假数据的烂摊子。

   从周一的紧急法案看，民主党也预见到大选结束可能特朗普要搞事情，毕竟有前车之鉴（上一次大选落败带红脖子包围国会山）。

   结论：哈里斯上台，币圈大崩，天崩地裂。

I have a plan to help Emperor Trump. Now quickly send people to various swing states to imitate the sound of foxes, so that America will be prosperous and Trump will be king. By the way, throw a one-eyed stone man into the Mississippi River and carve on it: Don't say the stone man has only one eye, stir up the Mississippi River and the world will rebel. If you lose the election, you can sit in Houston and make a call, "Are there any kings, princes, generals or ministers of different races?" Millions of rednecks in Texas will purge the emperor's side. If you win, you can enter the White House and ascend the throne again. If you lose, you can split Texas and still be like Emperor Zhaolie.

The US stock market began to fall when Harris's winning rate surpassed that of the Democratic Party. Does it mean that the Democratic Party feels that it has already won the election? After all, the prosperity of the US stock market was maintained for votes. Now, only when they are sure of winning, they don't need to continue to maintain the prosperity of the US stock market (no matter who comes to power, the problems of the US dollar and US debt need to be filled. If the US stock market still maintains a bull market, this bubble will become the third mine, so whoever comes to power needs to take the initiative to pierce it). From another perspective, the consortium capital behind both sides is facing liquidation this round. Has the consortium of the Trump faction also sensed the possibility of defeat and started to run away in advance?

     Secondly, judging from the illegal data, which has changed the previous falsification style, the US bureaucracy seems to be completely under the command of the Democratic Party. The previous falsification was needed to maintain a decent prosperity and prevent the US stock market from collapsing. Now that the real data has been released, does it mean that the government system has also determined that the Democratic Party will win again, and it can start to correct the previous outrageous data in advance? After all, the lies that we thought were very magical before are essentially for votes. From the perspective of human nature, I can do everything before the election is settled. If I lose, Trump will clean up the mess left behind. What if I win? I will clean up the mess I made myself.

    After talking about the two points, let's talk about the current market. After breaking through 68,800, the daily head and shoulders top officially entered the process of building a right shoulder box oscillation, with a top of 68,800 and a bottom of 65,000. It is in line with what the hunter said before that before the election is announced, the market needs to be pulled out of a range of about 3,000 points to facilitate control and stir up emotions.

68800 breaks during the weekend when market trading is light, who is in a hurry? What are they in a hurry about? If it's a rise, Friday could have fully utilized the favorable non-farm data to pull it directly to 61800-62000 under pressure, enticing short positions in, and then accelerating upward to break through, initiating a bull market.

The only reasonable explanation is that the subsequent market trend is downward; only in this way can the logic of this weekend's decline make sense. Breaking below 68800 can initiate a right shoulder box fluctuation of a head and shoulders pattern, allowing for a fluctuation range of 3000 points to facilitate the main control of the market. At the same time, the fundamental reason for the market's bullishness is betting on Trump coming to power, with the election results announced on November 5th. Even if Trump comes to power, the rise can still be controlled within this range; if Harris comes to power, there will be a direct waterfall decline, or a slow drop, both of which can technically rationalize this market trend.

Over the weekend evening, everyone does not need to pay attention to the pressure situation at 68800; whether it breaks or not is not important. If it declines, even if it spikes up, it won't matter much, at most it will just force a technical short stop-loss. If the subsequent judgment of the hunters is wrong, and the market is not declining but rising, then a unilateral upward move will not give back a pullback.

Therefore, the position that everyone can currently choose is to short near 68800, with a stop-loss if it breaks 69300. If the subsequent market trend is a unilateral rise, then the hunter's judgment is wrong. However, if the spike triggers the stop-loss and the market falls back within the 68800-69200 range, continuing to short again indicates that the market is a false break spike, and the subsequent trend is still a unilateral decline, which will drop to the 66000-65000 range before the election announcement. This position can choose to reduce holdings to buffer against the election's volatility.

Do not think that after Bitcoin takes off, it will naturally trigger an altcoin season. The world does not work that way. Bitcoin and altcoins are completely different species, and there is no necessary connection between them. The essence of craving an altcoin season is due to being trapped by altcoins and wanting to break free, or simply not having Bitcoin at all and wanting to gamble on the explosion of an altcoin season. The old method of seeking a sword by carving a boat is no longer effective, as the underlying logic and ecological environment have changed.

From a macro perspective, large funds will not invest in altcoins, because altcoins cannot deeply accommodate large amounts of capital. Large funds need a sufficiently deep reservoir that allows for free entry and exit with good returns. Just look at how many altcoins have increased more than Bitcoin in this wave?