Today we continue to capture the market's motives with the mindset of a dealer
First, we need to understand the market reaction brought by the breakthrough at 95K
Before the 95K breakthrough, the market feared the rise because there was strong pressure, but no effective rising structure. However, after the 95K breakthrough on Friday night, things started to get interesting; the upper space opened up, and retail investors began to think about buying on the dip and taking off
So today, the weekend's gradual decline went unnoticed as a problem by anyone.
The dealer's purpose has three points
1. To make retail investors believe that the space above 95 is opening up
2. To force short positions to stop losses
3. To lure in buying on the pullback
Now let's return to the actual market and take a look; just a simple glance shows that the position at 945 has formed a smooth support, with a bullish flag pattern forming, combined with a triangular convergence of oscillation; technically, the MACD golden cross is present, and notably, a large number of retail investors have entered. Coupled with the repeated friction at 95 last night, the pressure on high positions has been fully loaded, which means that currently, only retail investors are going long, and no retail investors are going short.
Conclusion: Gradually trapping retail long positions step by step, luring them in batches at 945, 935, 930, 926, and finally completing a rapid spike at the 930-926 stage, completely cleaning out retail long positions, and only then can we start the second push towards 95K and ultimately stabilize above 95K.
Based on the conclusion, our approach is very simple, foolproof operation
Based on the current gradual decline to lure retail long positions, we will short near 945 against retail at around 942, with a stop loss at 955. At the position of 926-930, short positions can choose to take profit and then prepare to catch the spike.
Based on the spike action at 926, we will catch the spike at 913-910, with a stop loss at 90K, and choose to reduce positions for protection near 95K. Finally, through a week's box oscillation, we will achieve a breakthrough for a real rise above 95K, with upper targets of 98K-100K.