The magical market always strikes at the beginning of my takeoff phase. In the past week, I have precisely grasped the fluctuation rhythm of the market every day, accurately hitting every turning point. I originally thought that breaking through 99,000 would allow me to firmly hold onto the upward trend, but in the end, the peninsula sun has bathed me in grace.

On Friday night, a hacker attack on the Bybit exchange in the north of the peninsula led to the theft of 1.46 billion dollars worth of coins. The incident caused collective panic in the cryptocurrency circle that night, and Bitcoin quickly turned around and plunged during the second surge towards 99,000, triggering fears reminiscent of FTX. Today, the weekend has seen a rapid market recovery, currently hovering around the 96,200 level, and everyone is worried whether there will be a second panic drop when the market opens on Monday. Today, I will provide a key interpretation of my views on the future.

Currently, the market is still shrouded in a panic atmosphere following a waterfall decline, and the market is filled with expectations of a deeper drop. Here, I must first dispel rumors.

The events involving the Bybit exchange and FTX are fundamentally different. The former suffered a hacker attack, while the latter misappropriated customer funds. The danger levels cannot be confused; for example, the former is like a thief sneaking into a store and stealing the day's revenue, while the latter is akin to an insider stealing everything from their own store, leaving only an empty shell.

Secondly, when the theft occurred, leading exchanges and institutions responded very quickly, almost simultaneously coming forward to support and transfer funds to Bybit, ensuring that a panic-induced run on the bank would not occur. These big players are well aware that the last FTX run directly extinguished the cryptocurrency market, which took nearly two years to recover. If a similar situation happens at the beginning of this bull market, it would directly scare away the bulls.

Understanding the big players' thoughts, let's turn back to another concern: will the release of these coins worth 1.46 billion dollars into the market cause a short-term rapid decline?

My answer is that this is an overreaction. Today, everyone knows that these bitcoins have been distributed to 40 wallet addresses. This statement alone reveals the issue. How do we know they've been transferred to 40 wallet addresses? Clearly, after the theft occurred, these bitcoins have been under surveillance. Regardless of whether they are traded off-exchange or on-exchange, any transfer from these 40 wallet addresses will be monitored again. If they are traded on-exchange, no one will accept them; if they are traded off-exchange, no one dares to accept them. Anyone who does will have their address monitored.

This batch of stolen bitcoins can only be sold off by continuing to distribute them, spending a lot of time and small amounts to gradually flow into the market. Such a level of cashing out thrown into the current market would barely make a splash.

Conclusion: This incident is merely a black swan, only affecting the market at that moment, and will not have a greater impact on the cryptocurrency circle in the future.

Thus, we can clarify our thinking: the waterfall in the current market cannot be used as a basis for predicting future trends. The market still maintains its original rhythm and will quickly return to the right track.

In the original framework of my analysis, Friday was initially expected to break 99,000, exhausting the short positions, and then follow up with a second breakthrough leading to a one-sided rise.

On Friday night, the first step of the market breaking 99,000 to trigger the short positions has been completed, but the second step of breakthrough was interrupted by the black swan event.

Therefore, since next week's market is to return to the right track, it will pick up the rhythm that was interrupted, which means breaking through 99,000 and completing a one-sided rise.

If everyone is still unclear, let's use a graphical example.

Currently, the market is in a sideways pattern, with short-term upward trend line support at 95,800. Today and tomorrow, we should rely on this position to go long in the 95,800-95,500 range, with a stop loss at 95,000 and a target of reducing positions at 99,000, looking upwards at 100,500.