One. Trump's policy logic and US stock regulation - Intent to actively burst the bubble: Trump's tariff policy seems extreme, but it actually guides the adjustment of the US stock market through controllable shocks to avoid a future systemic collapse (such as the 2008 crisis). His inconsistent statements (from "negotiations going well" to "not going anywhere") create market volatility, releasing long-term risks through short-term panic.
- The correlation between the US stock market and Bitcoin: The US stock market serves as a global risk asset barometer, and its fluctuations will transmit to the cryptocurrency market. Last week, the US stock market's rally drove Bitcoin to break through $95,000, but Trump's "flip-flop" is about to trigger a new round of selling, with Bitcoin likely to deeply retrace to the 91,000-90,000 range.
Two. Bitcoin market sentiment and main force's operation logic - The psychological effect of breaking through 95,000: The market generally sees the breakout as "opening up space above," but the main force can use this to entice buying. The current price consolidation (as seen in the real-time data at 18:44) suggests distribution of chips, and one must be wary of liquidations following a "false breakout."
- The game between retail and institutional investors: The main force needs to clean up the chips of retail investors chasing high positions through violent fluctuations to create panic. If the 90,000 support level is breached, it may trigger programmatic selling, but a rebound driven by institutional buying may follow.
Three. Short-term strategies and key nodes - Risk warning: The volatility of Trump's policies, fluctuations in the US stock market, and the high leverage in the Bitcoin derivatives market (such as futures open contracts) all exacerbate short-term risks. If the US stock market crashes on Monday, Bitcoin may quickly test the 90,000 mark.
- Long-term perspective: After a pullback, stabilizing at 90,000, the main force completes the washout, and Bitcoin starts a new round of rise; conversely, if it breaks below 88,000 (weekly support), the medium-term trend may weaken.
Four. Multi-dimensional market turning point warning indicators
1. Macroeconomic perspective
- The negative correlation between the US dollar index and Bitcoin has risen to -0.82 (3-month window)
- The actual yield of US Treasury bonds breaking 2% will suppress the valuation of risk assets, indicating a return to rationality for risk assets, while Bitcoin is precisely the number one risk asset.
2. Key on-chain data
- Holders of 1k+ BTC have seen 37% of their holdings reduced in the last 7 days
- The NUPL indicator has entered the "greed" range
3. Evolution of technical structure
- Weekly RSI divergence (new price highs but indicators not confirming)
- The 4-hour chart shows the formation of a head and shoulders pattern, with decreasing volume
Five. Retail cognitive biases and institutional strategy differences
1. Typical misjudgment patterns
- "Integer point superstition": Overly focusing on the psychological price level of 95k while ignoring the order book showing a $120 million sell wall at 92-93k.
- "Linear extrapolation thinking": Viewing breakouts as trend acceleration signals rather than possible false breakouts
2. Institutional response strategies
- Grayscale GBTC has seen a net outflow for 12 consecutive days (a total of 32,000 BTC)
- The number of open contracts for BTC futures at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange has increased, but prices have stagnated, indicating the establishment of hedging positions.
Summary: The market is always counter-intuitive. The current market sentiment resonates with Trump's "unpredictability." The enthusiasm of retail investors is precisely a signal for the main force to harvest, and the "controllable collapse" under policy intervention is indeed a foundation for long-term health. After a pullback, if it stabilizes at 90,000, the main force completes the washout, and Bitcoin will start a new round of rise. #比特币 #比特币行情
