一鸣的交易笔记

In the early development stage of the CAILA ecosystem, the project party launched a series of high-value airdrop activities to incentivize community participation, covering multiple dimensions such as trading, creation, liquidity provision, and data mining. Below are the specific participation methods and reward details:

1. Exclusive airdrop for trading users: Users with a historical trading volume of $1000 or more, if they rank among the top 1000, can directly receive a CA token reward worth 500U. This mechanism aims to reward early supporters while encouraging more users to participate in ecosystem building.
2. Creative contributor reward pool sharing: For users skilled in painting, design, or with innovative ideas, CAILA has opened a zero-threshold participation channel. By submitting original works or creative proposals, participants can share in the community reward pool, achieving 'zero-cost returns'. This initiative not only lowers the participation threshold but also promotes the diversified development of ecological content.

According to the current liquidation map, there is considerable short selling pressure in the market. Based on the current Bitcoin price of around $105,500, if the market fluctuates another $2,000 up, reaching around $107,500, it is estimated that the cumulative amount of short liquidations could be approximately $1.19 billion. Conversely, if the market drops to around $103,500, the cumulative amount of long liquidations is estimated to be about $800 million.

Market direction: Short-term sideways movement is expected. It can be observed that from last Saturday and Sunday, the overall market has been in 4H and 1D level sideways fluctuations, and most altcoins have also shown general volatility, mainly awaiting a change in the market trend. Therefore, market sentiment appears to be neutral.

Brothers, something big has happened! Early in the morning on June 13, an explosion was suddenly heard in Tehran, the capital of Iran. Before the missiles even landed, the crypto market was already bleeding profusely—Bitcoin plummeted 1.5% in 15 minutes, crashing from $108,000 directly to $103,000, while mainstream altcoins like Ethereum and Solana fared even worse, with declines reaching 12%-17%!

In the past 24 hours, the number of market liquidations exceeded 200,000, with $1.155 billion vaporized. The largest single liquidation reached $201 million, earning the title of 'crypto market meat grinder'! Strangely, after the crash, the market sentiment indicator 'Fear and Greed Index' remained stable at 60 (greed zone), directly mocking: 'Bitcoin doesn't care at all about wars in the Middle East!'

Crypto earthquake! Trump's 'tariff nuclear bomb' detonates the market; can Bitcoin hold at $100,000?

Brothers, this wave of market action is even more thrilling than a roller coaster! Bitcoin crashed face-first to $103,700 overnight, and Ethereum followed down to $2,500, with global gamblers collectively performing a 'rooftop queue'—246,215 people were liquidated within 24 hours, and $1.132 billion in long positions vanished, with the worst being a $201 million Bitcoin long position on one exchange going to zero.

And the instigator of all this was none other than the sleepless Trump, who was up at three in the morning!

On July 9, this date is now circled in red by the market—Trump has declared he will issue a 'tariff ultimatum' to the world; if you don't accept? Then get lost!

According to the current liquidation map, the market shorts dominate with the current Bitcoin price around $108,600. If the market fluctuates by $2,000 up to around $110,600, it is expected that about $970 million of short positions could be liquidated. Conversely, if the market drops to around $106,600, it is expected that about $1.2 billion of long positions could be liquidated. Yesterday, the net inflow of funds into Bitcoin ETFs was $18.2 million, and the net inflow into Ethereum ETFs was $76.7 million.
Market direction: short-term bearish; based on the current market trends, both the 4H and daily charts indicate signs of a pullback, while Ethereum is showing slightly stronger performance. The market is overall in a consolidation phase waiting for the next trend. For most altcoins at present, they will also follow the market's slight pullback. I personally believe the short-term focus should be on the conflicts regarding immigration in the U.S. If the situation escalates, it will certainly have a negative impact on U.S. stocks, leading to a market pullback.

Brothers, pay attention! Tonight, the crypto market might stage an epic rollercoaster ride, as two bombshell news items have got the dealers rubbing their hands in excitement.

Let's start with the first explosive news — stablecoin giant Circle is ringing the bell for its IPO tonight! This company has crazily moved $1.1 billion, valuing it at a staggering $7 billion! Does it remind you of the grand scene when Coinbase went public in 2021? At that time, Bitcoin had just touched $65,000, and the IPO became the market's terminator. Is history about to repeat itself? Anyway, the vulture investors eager for new stocks are ready with their harvesters, just waiting to chew on the crypto funds like sugarcane!

Bitcoin and Ethereum have recently pulled back, and it is obvious that Ethereum is stronger than Bitcoin. For many times, both Ethereum itself and the exchange rate between Ethereum and Bitcoin have remained above EMA20, showing a relatively strong performance. Yesterday, Vitalik took the lead in buying more than 3 million Ethereum, and recently the Ethereum Foundation announced that it would reduce annual development costs to less than 5%, which seems to be some good news.

The market becomes weak and powerless, and there is still one extreme point left. This is the same as the eight characters. When the seven characters around it are all restraining and consuming it, it will become strong, and the seven characters around it will become favorable. This is prone to ups and downs. The market will not go as people wish. If it goes as everyone wishes, it will be much easier to operate. Unfortunately, this has never happened in the world. This is also the natural principle of yin and yang.

Let's discuss the recent fundamentals regarding altcoins. Recently, many second-tier altcoins have shown a trend change; they are no longer on a continuous decline but are starting to show a consistency of gradually higher lows, indicating that the market may be entering the 'final wave of liquidation.'

If the upcoming market continues to dip, for example, falling back to the launch point around May 7, or even briefly breaking below it, it could trigger collective panic. Many people will cut losses at that time, commonly referred to as the 'sentiment bottom.'

We have calculated that in extreme cases, altcoins may still have an average downside potential of 15%-20%. Ethereum is currently at $2600; if it truly returns to $2200, it corresponds to about a 15% drop, and the technical support level coincides.

In recent days, ETH has shown more resilience than other coins, meaning it has dropped less during the market pullback, signaling an important message: major funds may not intend to sell off too much anymore, suggesting they might have completed their earlier adjustment goals.

Next, the focus should be on the trends of altcoins. The current situation resembles a phase of 'final round sentiment clearing'—many are starting to panic and cut losses, which often indicates a near-term reversal.

So we can draw several fairly clear conclusions:

This market is like the neighboring Wu Lao Er, who has been paralyzed for half a year, suddenly winning the square dance championship!

Ethereum turned from $2550 to a surging trend, the intraday chart is more aggressive than a firecracker. The key lies in the critical point of 2650—where the 30-day moving average has been horizontal for three days, both bulls and bears are feeling the squeeze. Above, the 2690-2730 battle zone is densely packed with trapped positions; for every point increase, there are hundreds of thousands of sell orders to push it down. Do you know what this is like? It's like climbing a ladder in a level game while dodging a rain of arrows; one moment of inattention and you'll be shot into a porcupine!

Peeling back the on-chain data reveals, wow! The whales holding 10,000-100,000 ETH have been crazily buying in the 2520-2600 range recently. Just on May 28th, three mysterious addresses swallowed 42,000 ETH, enough to buy two office buildings in Lujiazui! What's even more surprising is that these big squids choose to place orders at 3 AM, like thieves. On-chain analyst "Bald Qiang" discovered that the recent 30-day increase in whale wallets has reached a new high since December last year; I’m familiar with this script—last year around this time, they were also sneaking around buying, and two months later ETH shot straight up to over 3000!

Ethereum successfully broke through $2750!

The rally in altcoins is driving a noticeable warming of market sentiment, as if entering a fast-paced rotation phase of 'you sing, I perform.' While accelerating trends are exciting, they also mean that the upcoming challenges will become greater.

In the past, many could self-deprecate during losses, but the real test for the future lies in: even when the tokens in hand are rising, they can't make money or even break even, while other tokens around them are doubling madly. This anxiety of 'rising but not earning' is often more tormenting than losses. You will start to doubt whether this wave is at the top? Should you sell? Selling fears missing the upside, while not selling worries about falling back into losses after a correction.

Bitcoin has broken through historical highs, reaching the $110,000 mark, while altcoins have remained at low levels. So, will the crypto space welcome a bull market for altcoins in the future?

We need to clearly assess the current phase of the market. Bitcoin indeed belongs to a bull market, but does a Bitcoin bull market necessarily mean that altcoins will also have a bull market?

Secondly, since this bull market is a slow bull, the reversal of trends is unlikely, and the rise of countless coins is also unlikely to happen. If the rise of countless coins is not going to happen, is the strategy of waiting for the altcoin bull market reliable?

Last Friday, a tariff announcement from Trump disrupted the market's upward momentum, but in just two days, his stance reversed sharply, announcing that the planned 50% tariff on the EU set for June 1 would be extended to July 9, which coincides with the end date of the '90-day suspension' for reciprocal tariffs.

After Trump changed his stance again, the market surged, truly a case of Trump’s words shaking the crypto space.

Currently, there are no bearish factors in the short term. After a market correction, it is highly likely to continue rising. The only uncertainty is Trump's rhetoric; as long as he doesn't say anything reckless and Bitcoin stays above 105,000, it may break new highs again this week, driving market sentiment.