This market is like the neighboring Wu Lao Er, who has been paralyzed for half a year, suddenly winning the square dance championship!
Ethereum turned from $2550 to a surging trend, the intraday chart is more aggressive than a firecracker. The key lies in the critical point of 2650—where the 30-day moving average has been horizontal for three days, both bulls and bears are feeling the squeeze. Above, the 2690-2730 battle zone is densely packed with trapped positions; for every point increase, there are hundreds of thousands of sell orders to push it down. Do you know what this is like? It's like climbing a ladder in a level game while dodging a rain of arrows; one moment of inattention and you'll be shot into a porcupine!
Peeling back the on-chain data reveals, wow! The whales holding 10,000-100,000 ETH have been crazily buying in the 2520-2600 range recently. Just on May 28th, three mysterious addresses swallowed 42,000 ETH, enough to buy two office buildings in Lujiazui! What's even more surprising is that these big squids choose to place orders at 3 AM, like thieves. On-chain analyst "Bald Qiang" discovered that the recent 30-day increase in whale wallets has reached a new high since December last year; I’m familiar with this script—last year around this time, they were also sneaking around buying, and two months later ETH shot straight up to over 3000!
Today's surge was triggered by BlackRock submitting a provocative report to the SEC. They said: If our ETH ETF can be staked for yield, wouldn’t it be nice to earn 3.2% for free every year? This is equivalent to upgrading the big cake from "digital gold" to "a sow that can give birth"! You should know that the old money in traditional finance can kneel and call you daddy at the sight of a 4% yield. If this really goes through, those wolves in suits on Wall Street will believe it or not, they can buy ETH like crazy? But the old officials at the SEC, who are in their seventies and eighties, are currently wearing reading glasses to study whether "staking counts as securities"...
Want to turn this rebound into a real bull market? You have to storm through three major checkpoints:
1. Trading Volume Concern: If the daily trading volume doesn't exceed $15 billion, it's all just playing tricks. Right now, this $8 billion volume isn't even enough for big whales to fill their gaps.
2. Policy Concern: If that official seal from the SEC cannot be stamped, no matter how fancy BlackRock's PPT is, it’s just worthless paper. Reference last year's "The Wolf is Coming" drama during the Bitcoin ETF approval, it's enough to drink a pot.
3. Ecological Concern: The on-chain activity is as quiet as a ghost town, with DEX trading volume down 40% year-on-year. Without new retail investors bringing in cash, relying solely on old gamblers to chop each other, this game is bound to collapse sooner or later!
Bitcoin's market cap share has soared to 63%! Do you know what that means? Historically, every time this indicator breaks 60%, the average increase of altcoins in the next three months can reach 380%. Right now, these altcoins are so low that even their mothers wouldn't recognize them, but have you noticed? The market cap of USDT has quietly surpassed $110 billion—this is like off-market funds holding machine guns waiting to enter! How did the hundred-fold coins come in 2021? It's because the big cake sucked blood to the limit, and then the funds "spurted" all over into altcoins.
Last night’s drama in Washington was incredible! Powell and Trump, these two old men, were smiling on the surface but were cursing inside. Trump said, "Not lowering interest rates is a major mistake," while actually threatening, "If you don't lower rates, I’ll make you lose your job, believe it?" Powell was even bolder, directly pulling out Chapter 10 of the Federal Reserve Act to push back—this is even more exciting than the mutual liquidation in the crypto space! If you ask me, this battle of wits between these two old foxes is way more thrilling than watching K-lines; when they sneeze, the global market catches a cold.
Finally, remember! This market now is like dancing ballet on the edge of a knife—looks beautiful, but could spill blood at any moment. What we need to do is wait for the manipulators to make the K-line look pretty before we go in and kick it one last time!
