Brothers, something big has happened! Early in the morning on June 13, an explosion was suddenly heard in Tehran, the capital of Iran. Before the missiles even landed, the crypto market was already bleeding profusely—Bitcoin plummeted 1.5% in 15 minutes, crashing from $108,000 directly to $103,000, while mainstream altcoins like Ethereum and Solana fared even worse, with declines reaching 12%-17%!
In the past 24 hours, the number of market liquidations exceeded 200,000, with $1.155 billion vaporized. The largest single liquidation reached $201 million, earning the title of 'crypto market meat grinder'! Strangely, after the crash, the market sentiment indicator 'Fear and Greed Index' remained stable at 60 (greed zone), directly mocking: 'Bitcoin doesn't care at all about wars in the Middle East!'
Why is the crypto community so calm this time? Because in April 2024, when Iran retaliated against Israel, Bitcoin experienced a 10% drop in one day, while this time the decline shrank to 2.3%. The market seems to have developed 'resistance' to geopolitical conflicts.
But the real magical plot is just beginning—Trump has surprisingly become the biggest winner of this war! Trump's 'double game': igniting the Middle East while profiting from the crypto market.
While the Middle East is engulfed in war, Trump's crypto wallet is raking in money! This guy's personal crypto assets have skyrocketed to $3.3 billion, accounting for 60% of his total wealth, with his own company, World Liberty Financial, earning $57.35 million.
Trump's crypto policy is more like 'an open card for harvesting chives':
1. Promote 'American cryptocurrency dominance': aim to establish a national Bitcoin reserve, making the U.S. the 'decision-maker' in the crypto world.
2. Replace the SEC chairman: make regulation more lenient to facilitate the entry of large institutions.
3. Confiscate and nationalize Bitcoin: even considering turning government-seized Bitcoins into national assets.
The Democrats accuse him of 'harvesting the chives with his presidential position', but the crypto community has to heed his words—if he makes harsh statements against Iran, the market trembles immediately; if he hints at rate cuts, Bitcoin bounces back. This guy is simply a top player in the 'war + crypto' double line operation!
The fate of the current crypto market hinges on these three events:
First, Iran has announced it will carry out 'endless retaliation', the U.S. military is urgently evacuating personnel, and there is a nationwide curfew in Israel. If U.S. military bases are truly attacked, Bitcoin could plummet to around $90,000; however, if the U.S. and Iran reach a temporary peace, the price may rebound to $108,000.
Next, Trump's 'crypto hegemony' aims to replicate the U.S. dollar's dominance in the crypto space, pressuring countries to build crypto reserves, with tax increases for those that don't comply. In the short term, this can elevate Bitcoin's status as 'digital gold', but the long-term risks are enormous—on February 2025, a single statement from him about increasing tariffs caused Bitcoin to flash crash by 10%.
Finally, on June 19, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision, and Powell will hold a press conference. If expectations for rate cuts rise, coupled with a ceasefire in the Middle East, Bitcoin might counterattack; but if Powell adopts a hawkish stance and the conflict escalates, the $60,000 support line may be breached, with liquidation risks reaching $1.74 billion.
The outlook for Bitcoin is bright, but Ethereum may trend downward; new public chains are starting to take center stage, and the altcoin landscape is about to change.
1. Bitcoin's 'safe-haven' persona is solid: it occupies 59.1% of the total cryptocurrency market cap, with institutional ETF funds continuously flowing in, and Grayscale even bullishly predicting $150,000.
2. Ethereum is completely collapsing: its share has dropped to 7.9% (the lowest since 2019), gas fees are high, and staking rewards have shrunk to 3.8%, with users being aggressively snatched away by Solana and Sui.
3. XRP emerges as a dark horse: 300 financial institutions have connected for cross-border payments, and whale holding ratios soared to 41%, crushing Ethereum's 29%.
This wave of chaos in the Middle East acts like a mirror, with Bitcoin dropping less and rebounding quickly, while Ethereum falls without rising, exposing the risk of 'altcoin hegemony' being threatened.
In the next ten days, three bombs are already counting down!
1. June 16-21: Token unlocking tsunami
Projects like ARB and ZK are dumping $260 million worth of tokens, which could crash the market.
2. June 19: Federal Reserve announces results
A single statement from Powell can send the crypto market on a roller coaster ride: rate cuts = soaring prices, hawkish signals = plummeting prices.
3. Iran's revenge progress bar
If missiles are launched again this week, the $100,000 Bitcoin support line will be at risk. However, if it's just tough talk that ends, bulls might rush to buy the dip.
To summarize my views: the Middle East situation will determine short-term fluctuations, Trump's policies will shape the mid-term trajectory, and the Federal Reserve's interest rates will dictate long-term bull and bear trends. The crypto community is never short of black swans, but the sight of Trump counting money while fighting wars is the biggest player in this chaotic situation!