小喜聊大饼

At 20:30 Beijing time on September 5, 2025, the US labor data for August, which the global financial markets had been holding their breath for, was finally revealed. The result, like a deep-water bomb thrown into a calm lake, stirred up massive waves. The data showed that the non-farm payrolls (NFP) in August only increased by 22,000, far from the market's general expectation of an increase of 75,000 to 78,000, marking a complete 'cold shock.' Meanwhile, the unemployment rate recorded at 4.3%, completely in line with expectations. This report of contrasting data instantly rewrote the market's short-term script: the US dollar index plummeted, and the market's expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve surged to boiling point, while the cryptocurrency market, at the forefront of risk assets, seems to be迎来一场久违的狂欢前夜. This report will delve into the immediate impact and profound logic of this event.

On September 3, 2025, today, let's talk about a particularly 'trendy' topic.
Imagine this: you have worked hard to 'mine' or invest for years, and a pile of Bitcoins or Ethereum is lying in your wallet. In the past, you could only watch the numbers on the candlestick chart either ecstatic or heartbroken, wondering how to turn it into real money. But what if I told you that now you can directly use these digital codes to buy a visible and tangible sea-view villa in the UAE, where 'gold is everywhere'? How would you feel?
This is not a science fiction novel, but a reality that is happening.

Today, the crypto world has been abuzz with news: The Ethereum Foundation is about to take action again.
That's right, you read that correctly. According to cross-verified information from multiple sources, the Ethereum Foundation is planning to sell 10,000 ETH through centralized exchanges in the coming weeks. On-chain data also shows that a fund exactly amounting to 10,000 ETH has been transferred to the renowned Kraken exchange.
A single stone stirs up a thousand waves.
Every time the foundation stirs, two voices always resonate in the community. One is the alarm: 'Run! The foundation is crashing the market!' The other is curiosity: 'What is this for this time?' Panic and speculation, like twin brothers, always make an appearance at this moment.

In the past month, the price chart of Bitcoin resembled a heart rate monitor connected to a strong current, oscillating violently around the key price point of $111,000.
In August, we witnessed it surge to touch the cloud at $123,344, only to plunge to a valley of $107,366 amid panic. Both sides engaged in an epic tug-of-war around the $111,000 front line. For a time, the air in the market was filled with anxiety and speculation: 'Is the bull market at its peak?' 'Is this the prelude to a new bear market?' 'Where do we go from here?'

If you have been paying attention to the market recently, you will certainly agree that the past few weeks have been a veritable explosion of information. Like a series of carefully choreographed fireworks, they have burst forth in the long-silent night sky. At the macroeconomic level, good news has come one after another, as if they were all agreed upon, injecting a long-awaited dose of adrenaline into the global risk asset market, especially the crypto world we are in.
Today, let's unravel the complexities and delve into the 'macroeconomic bonanza'—especially how the unexpectedly strong GDP data from the U.S. and the 'dovish' remarks from the Federal Reserve's 'hawkish bigwig' Waller have worked in tandem to reverse market sentiment and rekindle the risk-on sentiment in the crypto market. This is not just a simple market analysis but an attempt to capture the deep logic and emotional pulse driving capital flows.

Recently, the financial giant JPMorgan, which once had an ambiguous attitude towards Bitcoin and even referred to it as a 'scam' through its CEO, released a macro strategy report that can be described as a 'bombshell.' The core point of the report is astonishing: the fair value of Bitcoin should be $126,000.
It should be noted that today (September 1, 2025), Bitcoin's price hovers around $110,000. JPMorgan's report is akin to publicly declaring that this most well-known cryptocurrency in the world is not only not in a bubble but is actually undervalued, with its market capitalization needing to rise by at least 13% to match gold's value.

I. Restructuring of the Global Regulatory Landscape: Compliance and Regionalization in Parallel
1. Asian Regulatory Innovations
The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) officially implemented the Stablecoin Regulation on August 1, requiring stablecoin issuers to hold 100% of legal currency or highly liquid asset reserves and to undergo quarterly third-party audits. This move has promoted the formation of an 'Asian Stablecoin Regulatory Triangle' among Hong Kong, Singapore, and Japan, with expectations of attracting over $20 billion in institutional funds into the compliant stablecoin market. During the same period, Japan's three major banks began testing Bitcoin's Lightning Network instant settlement system, while the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) revealed that its digital new dollar (Project Orchid) may be linked to Bitcoin, further solidifying Asia's status as a digital asset center.

On September 1, 2025, the autumn air is gradually thickening, but there seems to be an unusual calm in the cryptocurrency market.
Do you remember those passionate days at the end of 2024? Bitcoin surged, market sentiment soared, and it seemed like every day a new wealth myth was born. Behind that, a key engine was tirelessly roaring—stablecoins. At that time, the weekly issuance of stablecoins reached as high as 4 to 8 billion dollars, with funds flowing in like a tide, providing continuous fuel for the entire market's rise.
However, the winds seem to be quietly changing.

1. Key Global Monetary Policy Nodes and Market Impact
1. European Central Bank Rate Decision (September 11)
Policy Expectations and Economic Background
According to UBS analysis, the European Central Bank is expected to maintain the key interest rate at 2.00% during the September meeting, ending the rate cut cycle that began in September 2024. EU statistics show that the eurozone's annual inflation rate fell to 2.0% in June 2025, in line with target levels, and the EU is supporting the economy through large-scale fiscal stimulus (such as defense spending and infrastructure investment in Germany). Analysts point out that although U.S. tariff policies may drag down the eurozone economy, fiscal stimulus will gradually show effects starting in 2026, making further rate cuts by the ECB unnecessary in the short term.

On one side, Sharps Technology holds over 2 million SOL, while Bitmine Immersion has aggressively increased its holdings of 320,000 ETH in 35 days — the institutions' 'digital treasury' is undergoing a silent asset transfer.
The cryptocurrency market at the end of August appears calm, but underneath, there is a current of institutional funds flowing. The latest data shows that the total amount of Solana publicly held by 13 listed companies and investment institutions has reached 8.277 million coins, worth approximately $1.69 billion at current prices, accounting for 1.44% of the total circulating supply of SOL.
In terms of Ethereum, Bitmine Immersion Technologies (NYSE: BMNR) holds particularly notable amounts. As of August 26, its total ETH holdings have reached 1.719 million coins, valued at over $7.65 billion, making it the largest publicly listed company's Ethereum reserve in the world.

The protagonist of this story is Shuntai Holdings, a traditional company listed on the Main Board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Just yesterday, August 29, 2025, a seemingly ordinary announcement sparked discussion in both the capital market and the crypto community: the company announced plans to allocate up to HK$70 million from internal funds to invest in a basket of cryptocurrencies.
HK$70 million may not seem like an astronomical sum for a listed company, but its symbolic significance far outweighs the actual monetary value. When North American tech giants like MicroStrategy and Tesla added Bitcoin to their balance sheets, people might have considered it a distant Silicon Valley story. However, when Hong Kong-listed companies also began to invest in Bitcoin, it undoubtedly marked the beginning of a new era—a head-on collision between traditional capital and the rising tide of innovation, unprecedented in its momentum.

There is an uneasy atmosphere in the air, which stretches from Wall Street to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). This is not from the heat of midsummer, but from an unprecedented capital craze. According to incomplete statistics, as of now, as many as 92 cryptocurrency ETF application documents are piled up on the SEC's desk like snowflakes, forming a veritable "mountain of documents."
The huge success of Bitcoin spot ETFs after their approval in early 2024 was like opening Pandora's box, allowing the entire financial world to see the broad path for crypto assets to the mainstream market.

August 29, 2025
The wheels of history sometimes roll over the old tracks of an era in an almost silent manner.
Today, August 29, 2025, is such a moment. The U.S. Department of Commerce, the data heart of the world's most powerful economy, has done something worthy of being recorded in history: it has publicly released the latest quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data in an unprecedented manner.
No lengthy press conference, no fancy rhetoric. Instead, there is a string of cold, precise, immutable code. The 'digital fingerprint' of U.S. official GDP data—a unique hash value—has been synchronously engraved on nine of the world's most well-known public blockchains. The genesis block of Bitcoin witnessed Satoshi Nakamoto's derision of banks, and today, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, TRON, Stellar, Avalanche, as well as Arbitrum One, Polygon PoS, and Optimism, are witnessing the first formal handshake between the national machine and the decentralized world.

The bitcoin market once again staged a thrilling scene, as whales quietly pressed the 'take profit' button, triggering a bloody storm across the entire market.
The bitcoin market has once again made investors experience what it means to 'walk a tightrope.' In just a few days, over 840 million in long positions were forcibly liquidated, while those whales who positioned early quietly exited with unrealized profits of up to 74 billion dollars.
This massacre came suddenly yet was expected—when bitcoin falls from its historical highs, every action of the whales pulls the market's strings.

A silent migration of capital is unfolding in the cryptocurrency world, with whales quietly reallocating their assets and institutional funds pouring in. What strategic chess game is hidden behind this?
In August, the cryptocurrency market saw a storm brewing, with a $2 billion Bitcoin suddenly disappearing from the OTC trading platform. Almost simultaneously, there was a massive influx of funds on the Ethereum chain. This is not a coincidence, but a carefully orchestrated capital transfer.
On-chain data shows that whale accounts are massively reducing their Bitcoin holdings, reallocating funds to the Ethereum ecosystem. More notably, approximately $1.3 billion of that capital has directly entered the Ethereum staking network.

Good evening, friends.
The summer of 2025 is about to pass, and there is a hint of autumn's chill in the air. But for us in the crypto space, this 'chill' seems to have arrived earlier and more intensely.
If you, like me, have been staring at the candlestick charts every day lately, but still feel an inexplicable anxiety lingering in your heart—an environment where rises are sluggish and falls are shallow—then congratulations, your feelings are not wrong. We may be stepping into a phase defined by top on-chain data company CryptoQuant as the 'bull market cooling period.'

Friends, have you recently felt that your Bitcoin and Ethereum are not moving? Not to mention skyrocketing, even sideways trading seems a bit difficult. Behind this, there is actually an 'invisible hand'—the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy. Today, let's break it down and talk about how this high-interest rate environment is gradually draining liquidity from the crypto market.
1. Why is the Federal Reserve's 'hawkish grip' slow to loosen?
Let's first look at a set of hard data. Since July 2023, the Federal Reserve has kept interest rates firmly at 5.25%-5.50%, the highest level in over twenty years. This is not a sudden decision—they raised rates by 400 basis points between 2022 and 2023, as if pouring a bucket of ice water on the economy.

'Bitcoin fanatic', 'number one bull' - Michael Saylor and his MicroStrategy company have long been mythic figures in the crypto world. This company seems to have only one mission: buy, buy, buy Bitcoin. As of August 26, 2025, MicroStrategy has firmly established itself as the 'Bitcoin king' among publicly traded companies, with a holding volume large enough to stir up waves in the crypto market.
However, just recently, a seemingly inconspicuous financial move by this 'whale' has stirred ripples in both Wall Street and the cryptocurrency space, alerting countless savvy investors to an unusual scent. This company, which has always been accustomed to 'crowdfunding' Bitcoin purchases through the issuance of common stock, suddenly hit the brakes and turned to a more complex and intriguing new financing route - the issuance of perpetual preferred stock.

On the financial highway of the digital world of Ethereum, an unprecedented 'traffic jam' is taking place. This is not a code bug, nor a network attack, but a capital migration worth nearly $4 billion. As of late August 2025, more than 870,000, or even nearly 910,000, Ethereum (ETH) are anxiously waiting in the 'exit queue'.
. At current prices, this amount of money is as high as $3.8 billion, enough to buy an NBA team, plus several private jets.
Behind this string of cold numbers is a turbulent undercurrent. Why has Ethereum staking, once hailed as a 'goose that lays golden eggs,' suddenly ushered in such a large-scale 'resignation wave'? What's even weirder is that when these stakers scrambled to leave, the ETH lending interest rate in the decentralized finance (DeFi) world soared like a rocket, once soaring to over 10%