In the past month, the price chart of Bitcoin resembled a heart rate monitor connected to a strong current, oscillating violently around the key price point of $111,000.

In August, we witnessed it surge to touch the cloud at $123,344, only to plunge to a valley of $107,366 amid panic. Both sides engaged in an epic tug-of-war around the $111,000 front line. For a time, the air in the market was filled with anxiety and speculation: 'Is the bull market at its peak?' 'Is this the prelude to a new bear market?' 'Where do we go from here?'

Today, I want to tell you: the current turbulence is more like a healthy 'high-level turnover' and 'stress test', rather than the clarion call of a bear market. The real reassurance lies within those 'invisible whales'—the balance sheets of institutional investors.

1. Clearing the fog: Where does the turbulence around $111,000 come from?

To understand why the market is so volatile, we must realize that today's Bitcoin is no longer a 'geek toy' entertaining itself in a small circle. It has deeply embedded itself in the global macroeconomic chessboard, with every move closely related to the pulse of the world economy.

1. The 'tug of war' of the macro economy.

The current turbulence primarily stems from complex and contradictory signals at the macroeconomic level.

On one hand, the market's expectations for global liquidity still exist. Despite the uncertainties in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, any hint of easing, even just whispers of interest rate cuts, can easily ignite the market's enthusiasm. This force acts like a warm current, lifting Bitcoin's price.

On the other hand, the stark reality is constantly testing investors' nerves. Whether it's the latest PCE inflation data from the U.S. or the growth prospects of major global economies, uncertainties abound. The market holds its breath, with everyone waiting for the next move from the Federal Reserve; each release of key economic data feels like a stone thrown into a calm lake, creating ripples. Furthermore, geopolitical tensions and potential tariff policies from Trump add substantial uncertainty to the market, causing investor sentiment to oscillate between optimism and pessimism.

This intertwining of bullish and bearish macro factors directly leads to repeated 'price discovery' around $111,000, as the market struggles to digest mixed messages, resulting in severe volatility.

2. The sword of undecided regulation.

Secondly, the uncertainty at the regulatory level is the 'Damocles sword' hanging over all crypto assets.

In 2025, we see the gradual implementation of the EU's (Crypto Asset Market Regulation) (MiCA), and the SEC's requirements for crypto custody compliance are becoming increasingly stringent. These measures, in the long run, are a necessary path for the industry to mature and standardize, helping to enhance institutional investors' confidence.

However, in the short term, any rumors of tightened regulations or interpretations of new rules will become catalysts for cautious sentiment in the market. Market participants feel like they are walking a tightrope, eagerly anticipating regulatory frameworks to bring legitimacy while fearing that overly stringent terms could stifle innovation and liquidity. This collective psychology of 'waiting for the other shoe to drop' leads to a significant amount of funds choosing to wait and see, exacerbating price stagnation at key support levels.

3. The technical 'halftime'.

From a purely technical analysis perspective, after experiencing a magnificent rise, the market has accumulated a large number of profit-taking positions. Several technical indicators, such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI), once showed 'overbought' signals. This means that the market needs time to cool down overheated emotions and take a 'halftime'.

Consolidating around the important psychological and technical juncture of $111,000 is actually a very healthy market behavior. It allows short-term speculators to exit, transferring chips from uncertain holders to investors with a longer-term vision. It's like a mountaineering team needing to take a break at a high-altitude base camp to acclimate and build strength for the next tougher ascent.

$115,000, $120,000—these price points have become trenches fiercely contested by both bulls and bears.

2. Digging deeper: Why is this not the prologue of a bear market?

Now that we've analyzed the reasons for the turbulence, let's discuss a more core issue: why do we have the confidence to say this is not the beginning of a bear market? The answer lies within those understated Wall Street giants.

1. The invisible whales: Institutional funds as the 'ballast'.

Unlike the frenzied bull markets dominated by retail investors in 2017 or 2021, the Bitcoin market in 2025 has undergone fundamental structural changes. The greatest reassurance comes from the deep involvement and firm holdings of institutional investors.

Let's look at a set of shocking data:

BlackRock, the world's largest asset management company managing trillions of dollars, is no longer a bystander in Bitcoin. As of the first half of 2025, its iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has repeatedly reached new heights. Data shows that as early as March this year, the total value of BlackRock's Bitcoin and Ethereum holdings approached $50 billion. By May, the scale of its Bitcoin spot ETF exceeded $64 billion. This is not 'small money'; this is the core capital of Wall Street voting with real money.

Fidelity, another asset management giant, also holds a dominant position in the Bitcoin ETF market. Its FBTC product, alongside BlackRock's IBIT, almost splits the majority share of the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF market.

The astonishing growth of total ETF holdings: As of August 17, 2025, the total holdings of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the U.S. alone reached an astounding 1.25 million Bitcoins. This means that nearly 6% of the global Bitcoin supply is firmly locked within these strictly regulated financial products.

The investment logic of these institutions is fundamentally different from that of retail investors. They pursue macro asset allocation that spans several years or even decades, rather than short-term price fluctuations. Their buying provides Bitcoin with an unprecedented, solid 'institutional bottom'. When prices fall, these 'whales' are more likely to view it as a 'discount' buying opportunity rather than a signal for panic selling. They act as the 'ballast' of a large ship, providing strong stability in a turbulent market.

2. Narrative upgrade: From 'digital gold' to a true macro asset.

More importantly, the entry of institutions has not only brought funds but also a profound 'narrative revolution'.

Once upon a time, Bitcoin was regarded in mainstream finance as a modern version of the 'tulip bubble'. Now, Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, openly claims that Bitcoin is a substitute for traditional safe-haven assets like gold.

The weight of this statement is priceless. It signifies that Bitcoin's identity has officially transitioned from a marginalized tech product to a globally recognized macroeconomic hedging tool that can stand alongside gold in the eyes of top global asset managers. As the world faces inflationary pressures, excessive currency issuance, and geopolitical risks, allocating a portion of Bitcoin is shifting from a 'radical attempt' to a 'prudent strategy'. This fundamental narrative shift provides the strongest support for Bitcoin's long-term value.

3. On-chain signals: The 'diamond hands' have not left the market.

In addition to the macro and institutional levels, micro data from the blockchain itself is also conveying positive signals. On-chain analysis shows that despite market fluctuations, there are no large-scale selling signs from long-term holders' addresses. These 'diamond hands', who have weathered several rounds of bull and bear tests, are still holding firmly. This indicates that the core believers in the market have a solid foundation, and their long-term vision for Bitcoin has not wavered due to short-term price fluctuations.

At the same time, technological innovations like the Lightning Network continue to advance, continuously optimizing Bitcoin's usability and network effects, thereby solidifying its value foundation.

3. Looking ahead: Navigating through turbulence.

Based on all the analyses above, we can draw a clear conclusion:

The current turbulence around Bitcoin at $111,000 is a normal market reaction under the intertwining of multiple factors. It reflects the uncertainties of the macro economy, the growing clarity of the regulatory framework, and is also an inevitable process of technical adjustment.

However, we must not misinterpret this healthy adjustment as the onset of a bear market. The institutional forces represented by BlackRock and Fidelity have constructed an unprecedented 'deep buffer zone' for the market. Their long-term holdings and recognition of Bitcoin's macro asset properties fundamentally change the rules of the game.

So, how should we navigate in this situation?

Adjust your mindset: Say goodbye to the fantasy of overnight wealth and get used to the 'new normal' resonating with the global macro economy. Bitcoin's volatility still exists, but the supporting logic behind it has changed significantly.

Long-term perspective: Understanding institutional thinking. If you believe in Bitcoin as a new macro asset with a long-term narrative, then short-term price fluctuations should not be the primary basis for your decision-making.

Maintain respect: The market is always right. While we are optimistic in the long run, risks still exist. Black swan events in the macro economy and unexpectedly severe regulations could impact the market. Rational risk management and position control are crucial at all times.

Conclusion

Returning to today, September 2, 2025. The world outside remains noisy, and Bitcoin's price continues to fluctuate around the $111,000 line. But this territory is no longer a precarious cliff's edge; it resembles a newly constructed, solid 'forward base' in the clouds.

So, my friend, stay steady. This great cryptocurrency social experiment is far from its conclusion. The current turbulence is merely a rugged path to a higher vista.