SHORT WORDS: $BTC is following Samuel Bennerās legendary financial cycle chart (1875), which marks 2026 as a āBā year ā Good Times, High Prices, Time to SELL.
š¹ Current bullish uptrend aligns perfectly with the cycle prediction
š¹ Past āAā years = panics, āCā years = accumulation (2023ā2024 buying zone)
š¹ Next stop: Euphoria & Peak Valuation in 2026
š¹ Technicals + Time Cycles = Edge & Alpha
How the Benner Chart Works:
Line A: Panic years (market crasheIs).
Line B: Boom years (best time to sell assets).
Line C: Recession years (prime for accumulation and buying).
ā” Smart money doesnāt chase pumpsāthey follow the cycle.
DETAILS:
The Benner Cycle is a 19th-century market theory, adapted by some crypto investors, that suggests market crashes and peaks occur in predictable cycles. While it has shown some alignment with past major market events, its accuracy for modern crypto markets is widely disputed.Ā
What the Benner Cycle is
Origin:Ā Developed in 1875 by Samuel Benner, an Ohio farmer and businessman who lost his wealth in the Panic of 1873.
Mechanism:Ā Based on his observations of recurring cycles in agricultural commodity prices, Benner created a forecast chart extending to 2059.
Phases:Ā The cycle divides market history into three repeating phases:
Line A (Panic Years):Ā Periods of market crashes. Some analyses suggest Benner predicted a panic year in 1927, near the 1929 Great Depression, and 1999, which aligned with the dot-com bubble.
Line B (Boom Years):Ā Periods of high prices, considered the best time to sell assets. Recent interpretations suggest 2026 is a potential boom year for crypto.
Line C (Hard Times):Ā Periods of low prices and recession, considered ideal for buying or accumulating assets. For example, 2023 was widely seen by Benner proponents as a good year to buy crypto.Ā
Why investors use it for crypto
Alignment with Bitcoin halving:Ā The prediction of a 2025ā2026 crypto peak aligns with the typical multi-year bull run that follows Bitcoin's four-year halving cycle.
Long-term perspective:Ā The cycle provides a macro-level roadmap for investors interested in timing long-term entries and exits, offering a simple narrative for market behavior.
Emotional cycles:Ā Some investors believe the Benner cycle effectively mirrors the emotional cycles of markets, driven by human behavior and investor sentiment, particularly in the highly volatile crypto space.Ā
Criticisms and risks of the Benner Cycle
Outdated foundation:Ā The cycle was developed based on 19th-century agricultural data, which has little relevance to today's complex, globalized financial markets influenced by technological disruption, quantitative trading, and central bank policies.
Inaccurate predictions:Ā The cycle has notable misses. For example, it predicted a panic in 2019, but the market didn't crash until the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. It also predicted hard times in the robust economic year of 1965.
Oversimplification:Ā Critics argue the cycle oversimplifies market dynamics by ignoring geopolitical events and other factors that influence asset prices. Veteran trader Peter Brandt called it a distraction, arguing it lacks value for making actual trading decisions.
Cognitive bias:Ā Belief in the cycle can be a result of cognitive biases like theĀ post hocĀ fallacy (claiming a delayed event fits the prediction) and confirmation bias (remembering hits while ignoring misses).
Not a guarantee:Ā Financial experts caution that the Benner cycle is not a foolproof forecasting tool and that market dynamics are unpredictable. It should not be the sole basis for investment strategy.Ā
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