甜梦

Many newcomers to the scene do not understand why the old investors are so obsessed with altcoin season.

The last bull market was simply a paradise for diamond hands; if you had the guts, you could make money easily.
The previous slogan for buying altcoins was that money comes like the wind, hold onto xx, and live in a palace.

In the last bull market, Dogecoin could rise eight times in a week, Sand could reach twenty times in three months, and the wealth creation effect of Binance IEO was also very obvious. As long as you held onto quality altcoins, it was a starting point of ten times. Sol went from 2u to 250, and Luna even reached a thousand times.

In contrast, this time, all the retail investors who bought BTC at the bottom have turned into inscriptions.
All the Sol bought at the bottom have turned into meme coins, and all the ETH bought at the bottom have turned into TX.

The altcoins are all half-alive; the market has very few new users, and it is all about the competition for existing funds. It is now a real existing market; without new entrants, there is no heat, and without heat, there is no capital entering. Without capital entering, there is no feedback, and again, there are no new entrants.

Most altcoins have already proven to be worthless. Last year's AI was all useless junk.
The new narrative of AI has not fulfilled the hype expectations and has not attracted external funds.

This bull market is more like an 'ETF-driven Bitcoin bull market.' Traditional altcoins lack a new narrative, liquidity, and speculative enthusiasm, making it naturally difficult to see an altcoin season.

Whether to go long above eth 4000 depends on whether it can break above the first resistance level of 4112-4150. If it pulls back and can hold above 3888, then if it can hold above 3888, it will attack 4500-4880 next month. So this week, after taking profits around 4k, it's best to wait and see. There are short opportunities in the range of 3930-4150, and even if the bulls are strong, they won't break through and hold immediately.

Currently, the capital inflow is mainly due to spot players buying, which is quite good. The larger the spot volume, the better; the market becomes more stable and lasting.

ETH has been performing strongly recently, driven by institutions buying spot. BTC was hammered down by 80,000 BTC on Friday, but it was the spot buyers who stepped in to stabilize it. Ultimately, everything still depends on the spot market, which reflects the power of external capital.
Those playing contracts are either the main players or the gamblers among insiders.

$CRYBB: The bonk team's main players control the market, with the largest cluster being the bonk team's main players + useless whales + GP pulling whales. They ape'd 50% of the chips at the opening and have been offloading since then, having sold 7% of their holdings so far. It's best not to touch it for now and continue to observe the main players' intentions.

$NYLA: As mentioned in the second phase, NYLA has a major player. Upon further investigation today, it was found that a super large cluster holds 27% of the chips. They ape'd 15% at the launch and have been doing DCA regardless of price fluctuations. The overall concentration of chips in NYLA is 50%, and they have been accumulating, which looks promising for the future.

$TROLL: Fartcoin whales are in control. After the last peak at 40 million, there was a correction, but the top chips have been accumulating, reaching about 30%. It feels like a second wave is coming soon, and the composition and trend of the market are very similar to Uranus, so look for a position.

$Hosico: Useless whales + bonk main funds, with the overall chip distribution being quite scattered, making it difficult to control the market. There are significant divergences among the clusters, and one cluster has been in a trading range. It's best not to touch it for now.

The Eth4h level is a double top pattern, and it has already begun to shrink in volume, ready to start a decline at any moment. If it drops, the first segment will pull back slightly, then continue to drop directly. The first low is expected to be around 3600, where there will be some consolidation, possibly forming a descending continuation pattern before accelerating down to the neckline position in the 3530-3500 range. So hold on tight and get ready to profit fiercely!

ETH has always been quite unscrupulous in terms of market manipulation.

The volatility is greater than Bitcoin, and the manipulation by bad actors is also greater than Bitcoin; here are two points to consider when trading Ethereum:

1. Whether Bitcoin is dead or not. If Bitcoin is dead, it likely means the bull market is over. Even if Ethereum continues to fluctuate, it won't gain much; it will only follow Bitcoin after sufficient handover and selling at the top.

2. Check if the E/B exchange rate remains strong. Currently, the exchange rate is at the end of the second phase of the rise (subjective judgment).

$BTC Technical Analysis
1. From a higher level perspective, the uptrend of Bitcoin has not deteriorated. Objectively speaking: during this period, in the judgment of whether this is a continuation of the uptrend or a process of topping, one should default to considering it a continuation of the uptrend;

2. However, from an operational perspective: 1) chasing highs is always a tough situation; 2) taking profits and selling high is never wrong; 3) similarly, to state facts, the difficulty of operations after entering a consolidation zone is much greater than before. Many times, the price of Bitcoin may not change, but the position is gone;

3. Currently, from the rise starting at 114908: 1) it seems to be forming a push pattern; 2) it has rebounded to the 0.618 position of the last segment of the decline; this kind of movement gives 114908 the possibility of forming a bottom, requiring further observation: regarding the pullback strength of this rise, as long as it does not break below, it will be a relatively high-cost-performance opportunity to enter.

The impact of ancient whales selling on the market can be understood from two dimensions.

From a medium to long-term perspective, during the oscillating rise of Bitcoin from April to July, the trading volume of the upward movement has been decreasing, and the divergence between volume and price has become increasingly evident, indicating that buying pressure is gradually exhausting. The large trading volume on July 14 provided a stop signal, and the significant drop in volume on July 15 and July 25 caused by the ancient whale sell-off indicates that selling pressure is starting to gain momentum and is overwhelming buying pressure, taking a significant advantage. Therefore, this suggests that the upward trend since April has ended or is close to ending, and it is not suitable to continue being bullish.

From a short-term perspective, the completion of the ancient whale sell-off means that the short-term bearish sentiment has mostly played out. Although it has significantly consumed buying pressure, it is likely to see a short-term recovery after an oversold condition, possibly a rebound towards the short-term trend line.

From an operational perspective, it can currently be confirmed that it is no longer suitable to go long on Bitcoin, but this does not mean it is appropriate to immediately go short, especially it is not suitable to aggressively short with heavy positions right now.

For example, the significant drop on December 6 last year was a signal of major players unloading, indicating that the upward trend of Bitcoin was nearing its end. However, Bitcoin did not continue to drop; instead, it consolidated for over three months before experiencing a deep decline, during which it even reached new highs twice.

Regarding the timing of operations, I will wait to enter the market when Bitcoin rebounds toward the short-term trend line.

$uranus has reached a new high again. A few days ago, I made a quick trade on the 9-15 and it shot up directly.
In this kind of market, it doesn't want you to form a collective force.
Just look at $bonk, it keeps rising, while jup is getting fud. Switching coins is only natural. Even though there are big players in house, a bunch of KOLs are calling the shots, when it gets forgotten, it just shoots up again. You noticed that, jumped in to catch the falling knife, then got washed out again, and couldn't hold on. When you forget about it, it reaches a new high again.
The big players just want you to forget about them before they pump the price. They can afford to wait, while retail investors watch coins flying around and keep switching, wearing down their principal.
It’s better to only make one good trade a week, hold onto it when you're confident.

If Bitcoin 123000 is a temporary peak (definitely not the final peak in the long term), then for the next month, it is highly likely that the market will continue to be volatile, and many altcoins will reach their peaks.

After Bitcoin hits the temporary peak, the overall altcoins will decline with the fluctuations of Bitcoin. Currently, altcoins are following this trend, with a significant pullback and a generally weak rebound, with only a few strong ones. This makes it quite difficult to play the rotation, with most experiencing declines. It was previously mentioned to gradually position oneself in short positions for altcoins, and now many have already dropped significantly.

Positioning principle: It's best to have a long-term double peak, and for Binance new coins, just position as long as they rise, gradually and at different times. Avoid positioning in mainstream coins, as the long-term risk and return do not compare. In the short term, it is difficult for Bitcoin to drop too deep; the peak is too high and the time is too short, and we need to consider looking for long-term shorts after the second peak, with a maximum drop of about ten thousand points.

Just bought some Ethereum, the EB exchange rate and Eth seem to have adjusted, plus there were large USDT transfers on the Sbet chain yesterday, it is estimated that ETH will hit a new high next week. If you're worried about the highs, just hold onto Sol and Bonk.

After a nap,
The dog days of summer, the sky is dry and the ground parched.
In a daze, it has already begun.
Nothing has changed,
As if everything has changed.
BTC, has bounced back to the right position,
The price has once again entered a range of volatility.
Many altcoin prices have returned to their original points.
But my position is gone,
I gallop across the battlefield, sword drawn and ready, the spirit of a hero, utterly vanished.
Yesterday, there was a drop, I told everyone to enter the market in batches.
Except for ETH, which hasn’t reached the buying point, the others should already be in orders.
But, in a couple of days, there will be someone asking you,
Where to enter, I was too afraid during the last pullback.
It seems that spring warmth and summer heat cycle endlessly, ordinary days, while those trading coins have already been in it for a day, a year.
What a painful realization, you are my everything.
BTC, has returned to the normal range of fluctuation,
Yesterday spiked, with a long lower shadow, the bullish strength is still strong.
The structure hasn’t broken, the bull market hasn’t ended.
It should not be long before it breaks through again, around 123110.
I hope, next time there’s a significant surge, a crazy rise, you’re still on board, altcoins have already boarded.
I said before, this pullback might just be the last chance to board for the next wave of craziness.
In fact, this period of time is the end of the bull market, getting closer to the end of the bull market.
But the later it gets, the more tragic it becomes, the more extremely crazy it gets.

Galaxy's official press release has announced the battle report on the sale of 80,000 BTC by ancient whales. The market's ability to absorb this is truly impressive; even with such a large dump, it only slightly dirtied the hem. Additionally, Galaxy definitely knows the identity of the client, but cannot disclose it due to confidentiality principles. It is worth noting that in the press release, Galaxy stated that this sale is part of the whales' estate planning strategy, meaning this whale may have reached an advanced age and thus wants to convert the BTC held for so long into cash for their descendants? Isn’t it ironic that you old OGs keep saying you want to pass down BTC through generations, yet in the end, it still gets converted to cash? 😂

Playing with on-chain memes, I personally believe there are mainly two methodologies: one is narrative trading, and the other is address digging. The former focuses on market intuition and sensitivity, while the latter emphasizes meticulous research and analysis of data.

These two are not only not in conflict but often need to be combined. They correspond to the two forces needed for the rise of tokens, namely the combined efforts of the market and retail investors, and the pulling power of market makers and whales.

Narrative trading focuses on what kind of story this token tells and whether it can resonate with the market. By considering the event background, innovation, popularity, and other aspects, we can judge how far a token can go.

For example, $Ani and $Gork are narratives born from new products under Musk, combining influence and fun, making them easy to spread; $Trump and $Pnut are prompted by significant political events; last year's AI hackathon market examined Dev resumes and industry status; $Neiro and $Pochita are derivatives of the Dogecoin concept; $Fartcoin and $Useless emphasize crypto nihilism.

When market sentiment is good, retail enthusiasm is high, and liquidity is abundant, narrative alone can create meme coins with market values of tens of millions or even higher. However, when market conditions are poor, it is necessary to rely on market makers to control the supply and pull the price up to attract attention. A typical example is the recent $Aura, which was pulled from near zero to 230 million in just a few days.

To catch this type of market manipulation, the most suitable method is address digging, analyzing whether there are clusters of addresses that are pulling the price and their intentions, or finding clues through previously accumulated address databases. The downside of this method is that it is very time-consuming and energy-intensive since the pulling addresses are often changed frequently. Moreover, even if traces are detected, if the bottom chips are not firmly controlled, the market maker can completely choose to abandon the position, leaving the initiative entirely in others' hands.

In this bull market, it is mostly impossible to accurately time the peak. Unlike previous years, where spot trading was dominant, this round is contract-driven. Furthermore, the decline may occur as a continuous downward trend for 1-3 months. This is the power of hedging; if you don't believe it, try it out. Anyway, the captain has no confidence in being able to time the peak, so the higher it goes, the more I will gradually exit.

Why are we obsessed with escaping the top on the left side? Because a top formation, such as an M top or a head and shoulders top, needs to confirm the shape on the right side. Generally, it is very normal for the price to be 20-30% below the top;
Using the weekly chart as the trading trend cycle, for example, the current price of BTC is 115,000 USD. It must drop to 97,000 USD to touch the upper median line. Here, we need to observe the volume and contract data to determine whether the price drop is due to urgent news or a slow decline. These two natures are different; news-induced drops or sharp declines with high volume may allow for bottom fishing, but a slow decline leading to a breakdown should not be seen as an opportunity to buy the dip. Using the weekly chart as a cycle, we need to confirm an effective breakdown below 80,000 USD to validate that the weekly chart confirms the end of the bull market. This range of 120,000-80,000 USD is where the greatest skepticism from bulls and bears usually lies; both sides have their reasons, but they are merely guesses. Simply from the market perspective, no viewpoint can be supported as right or wrong. That’s why smart traders, after completing a major surge, habitually reduce their positions to secure profits while waiting for opportunities;
The larger the arbitrage space, the higher the risk. Remember what the captain said about contract-led hedging, with spot market coordination for stretching. In the early stages, contracts growing together with the spot market provide support, but once the distance from the bottom becomes too large, this may not hold. Now, there are still people eager to jump in with money. I can’t say the trend has ended, but the risks are increasing. Most who chase highs end up with floating profits without understanding how to control their positions for profit-taking, ultimately getting trapped and resorting to increasing their positions, leading to a deadlock; (Remember, as I said earlier, breaking and effectively breaking are two different concepts.)
The current play of BTC resembles the standard play of leading stocks in the US stock market. So what are the characteristics of the tech stocks' movements in the US? They keep falling, falling all the way down, with months of declines and no rebounds, only V-shaped rebounds without any pullbacks. Will BTC behave this way? Time will tell;
I advise everyone, don’t bring people around you into the market anymore. If you make money, they won’t thank you; if they lose, you’ll likely have to bear the losses.

According to Bitcoin's data, investors are indeed experiencing some panic today, with a significant increase in turnover rate. Investors with a holding cost above $100,000 are the most affected, while those above $110,000 are the main force behind the reduction. Although earlier investors have also seen some fluctuations, the impact is not significant.

It is worth noting the two gaps of URPD that have been mentioned previously. One is at $112,000, which has not yet been filled, but the other gap at $114,000 has been filled. It has been stated before that gaps in URPD have never gone unfilled in history; it's just a matter of time. However, the CME gap has still not been filled.

There are currently no issues with the support levels, and both supports seem to be relatively stable. Tomorrow is the weekend, and a price rebound will help stabilize investor sentiment during liquidity.