甜梦

【$btc】2025.6.3

①$btc has reached a new high again, but it does not look strong. It has been in a low-level fluctuation for many days. Will it directly weaken and enter a bear market? Absolutely not. Put away any panic thoughts; it’s possible that June might see a new high again. Right now, people are eager to call the top, but it's too early. All indicators are on the left side, and although there are indeed signs of a top gradually appearing, even if it does reach a top, there will still be many opportunities to escape. There's no rush; we will take it step by step. Regarding tariffs, Trump hopes that countries will submit their best trade negotiation proposals by this Wednesday, with a final deadline set for July 8. Meanwhile, the lawsuit concerning Trump's tariffs is still under review, and a preliminary result might only come by mid-month, so the impact of tariffs in the near term is likely minimal. Then there's the U.S. stock market, which remains in a state of fluctuating upward movement. Although the volatility is not large, it has not reversed. As long as the U.S. stock market does not continue to decline, it will not have a negative effect on $btc, and the entire cryptocurrency market can play independently.

② Now, although it has rebounded, it is not strong, and it is quite sluggish and bothersome. This has lasted about three days, so looking at it, is the adjustment still continuing? The line of 106000 that I emphasized last week has now become the strongest resistance. For the price to continue to rise, the first priority is to stand above 106000. If it cannot stay above this level in the next couple of days, the opposite will correspond to continued adjustment. The defensive position below is at the 103700 line. If it falls below this, we will continue looking for a bottom, targeting the 102500 line.

③ The upper resistance is still at the 106000 line. If it stabilizes, look towards [107000-108000]. At this point, someone might say, 'There's not much movement!' Yes, $btc is actually a fluctuating structure, so don't expect it to have drastic movements for now. It can be shorted when it rises and even more easily bought when it falls. The support below is at the 104600 line, with the defensive position of 103700 serving as a stop-loss level. It might not be a bad idea to try a long position.

On-chain coins of interest:
There still isn't much to play with on-chain, those few Solana projects remain quiet, while WLFI and the BSC ecosystem are holding activities. (There are two winners of the competition)
1. $labubu finally retraced, hoping for a chance at 25m.
2. $Moonpig seems unable to stabilize here (what James is doing is hard to assess, let's observe for now)
3. $Launchoin 150 million, let's see if it holds steady as usual
4. $Bmp has a few days until the cross-chain deadline, let's see how it performs afterward
There are too many Solana coins, just looking to see if they can make a second wave.

Currently looking at the BSC trading competition
1. $ca might win
2. Keep an eye on those that surge up later (high trading volume, not much price increase, let's see if there are any)
3. $Vixbt at 6m, the project is starting to improve, interacting with BNB Chain, continue to observe.

The past two days have been busy around 3-4 AM, and last night it started around 3:30.

At 3:30, BTC pulled back from 104700 to 103985 before starting to rise. Today, it will likely retest the area around 105000-104700.

At 3:30, SOL pulled back from 155 to 151.75 before starting to rise. This morning it rebounded to 162, and it will retest 158. This was mentioned yesterday; it needs to hold above 157 before rebounding to 164-167.

This week's important information is mostly in the early hours of the morning. If you're resting, try not to trade, or manage your positions to the safest range before sleeping. It can drop first and then rise midway, or rise first and then drop, especially in the early hours of Thursday and Friday, so be cautious of sharp declines.

Prediction for BTC:
First a sideways movement in June, then a breakout, maintaining resilience in a harsh macro environment, with a target price of $150,000 by the end of the year.
Recommendation: Hold over 50% in BTC.

Prediction for ETH:
Following BTC, more stable than altcoins, but prone to significant pullbacks in the face of negative news, expected to return to $3,000 by year-end.
Recommendation: Do not hold more than 15% in ETH.

Prediction for SOL:
Several favorable factors still in reserve, greater upside potential than ETH, expected to reach $240 by year-end.
Recommendation: Do not hold more than 20% in SOL.

Non-farm payroll data will be released on Friday at 8:30, showing inflation conditions.
The market has rebounded, but for altcoins, especially avoid heavy positions or all-in
❌
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Large positions should still be in BTC.

BitEagle's analysis is for reference only,
adults must take responsibility for their own decisions.
Investing involves risks; please invest with spare funds and think independently.

ETH successfully stabilized at 2490. The main force defended the market yesterday. Currently, it seems that the market has not ended.

$ETH this time aims for 3000 USD! We should cherish the altcoin market in these few days and pay attention to Ethereum ecosystem tokens, ENS UNL NEO.

In the market, do not go against the trend, do not go against the emotions!

Currently, BTC is still in a range-bound fluctuation, and $ETH has also risen above 2,600. For ETH, if BTC maintains its upward fluctuation without negative sentiment, then ETH may have a chance to push towards 2,750-2,850. This leads to new trading strategies. For altcoins, if BTC maintains its upward fluctuation or reaches new highs, and ETH holds around 2,850, then altcoins will look to ETH for direction. Will altcoins catch up? There may be opportunities, but personally, I think the increase won't be very high, as the overall trend is still weak. As of now, $SOL and $PEPE have both recovered a bit. However, this situation is based on the uncertainty ahead, and it’s still early for interest rate cuts. This is a tail-end market, which isn't very favorable. One should be cautious and set stop-losses. Furthermore, based on on-chain data and macro factors, the probability of such occurrences is not very high. As for the short term, the probability of BTC reaching 12, 13, or even 15 is even lower. In summary, regarding BTC, I personally feel that the probability of it remaining in a range is high, possibly around 103 to 107, which might approach previous highs. Should we wait for ETH to break out before increasing positions, or should we enter now and see if it will break out, while setting stop-losses? I personally choose the latter. I mentioned this strategy last week. As for altcoins, anyway, in this tail-end market, ETH continues to rise, bringing about a wave of altcoin catch-up, but I won’t bet on that. The above still represents a strategy for the range-bound market. The probability of continuously reaching new highs is low.

Today's BTC futures market liquidation liquidity has three pieces of information:

1. After the price began to rebound as expected in the quote, there has not been a significant influx of shorts; at least the funding rate has not decreased, but rather has slightly increased...

2. From the perspective of liquidation intensity, the current price action resembles a weak liquidation targeting short sellers, given that the last three rebounds have each been slightly higher than the previous ones, this structure will make short sellers quite troubled...

3. The previously supportive liquidity gap at 103k has been completely filled, making the area below it filled with evenly distributed and substantial bullish liquidity...

From these three pieces of information, we can conclude:

The short-term price rebound target will be at 106.8k, and if favorable news pushes it, in an extreme case, it could be around 108k, but the liquidity gap above 108k will become a resistance for the price to continue rising... Not to mention, there is actually a smaller liquidity gap at 106.8k...

If the price is blocked at any liquidity gap, then the short-term rebound is likely to end, followed by a liquidation targeting the bulls...

We should hope that the price does not create a new low, but rather maintains at least a week of range-bound oscillation, giving short sellers an opportunity to add positions, to see if there are chances to liquidate the large liquidity at high levels;

But just in case, I mean just in case, if the price accidentally drops below a new low, it will be like throwing a burning match into a pool filled with gasoline, directly starting a new round of bullish liquidation...

Currently, the target for downward liquidation will be at least around 100k, and since there is a technical support level near 101k, this trend will likely have a long lower shadow below 101k...

In summary, as the funding rate has turned positive from negative, and there has not been a significant increase in short liquidity, I am subjectively inclined to see a small rebound upwards before the price begins to correct, thus confirming the upper boundary of the low range.

As for whether it can create a new low, we will see after the rebound is in place and begins to correct~

After all, if it goes straight up, the large block of text above will have been written for nothing...

Recently observed several characteristics of "Zhuang coins":
1. The spot market is relatively quiet, with actual tens of thousands of dollars able to leverage a market value of over ten million dollars.
2. It is clear that the main force expects to profit from futures, but the profit situation is not good: when pushing the price up, there is no buying or selling depth provided, making the price seem to rise significantly, but exit is impossible;
When holding a large position, one will find that sell orders above appear like "the waters of the Yangtze River" surging;

In the end, both the project party and ordinary players became "fish meat".

As long as Ethereum's daily line does not fall below the support of the consolidation range that has been maintained for 3 weeks,
then what awaits it will ultimately be an upward breakout~

Of course, from a technical analysis perspective,
it's either a rise or a fall.
But from the perspective of trend continuation, the probability of an upward breakout is naturally higher than that of a downward breakdown.

How to make a good trading plan varies from person to person.
Some prefer to go long at the lower support,
some like to chase long after a breakout of resistance,
or some still believe in the continuation of the consolidation trend, so they short at the upper resistance area.

Plan your trade, trade your plan.
Set a stop loss and let the market give you the answer.

Fortunately, Bitcoin has not fallen below 100,000; otherwise, everyone would be in trouble...

In an era of deflation, people are increasingly valuing "spending a little money to buy happiness", which is the cost-performance ratio of "emotional value/spending".

Why are brands like Pop Mart, Mixue Ice City, and Laopu Gold so popular? Because they have captured people's psychology of "low cost, quick return, and high visibility".

For just a small amount of money, you can gain happiness, social interaction, or a sense of security, and even show off a bit—who can resist that?

Applying this logic to the crypto space, we can understand $Labubu. #Labubu was originally a trendy toy IP that attracted a large number of fans through blind boxes and peripheral products.

Now, the crypto space has issued $Labubu-related MEME coins, which serve more as a carrier of emotions. When people buy and sell $Labubu, they are not just concerned with price fluctuations; more importantly, it brings joy, social attributes, and that sense of identity of "being a member of this community".

This is the underlying logic of most MEME coins that can influence the market and gain attention today. As long as the narrative is appealing, it can gain public recognition.

The index performance of BTC/GOLD has once again come into effect!

Two weeks ago, the BTC to gold exchange rate index accurately touched the top of 2024, and then BTC paused its rise and began to consolidate and pull back.

Currently, the weekly index has clearly started to pull back, while BTC, as expected in the citation, has begun a long-term consolidation above the 100,000 mark, and gold is continuously rebounding!

Therefore, purely from the perspective of BTC's gold standard index, it is very likely that...

we are going to see a potential head and shoulders pattern...

And with BTC prices breaking new highs, the index displaying standard secondary high behavior reflects that the market is beginning to show slight risk-averse sentiment again...

Playing with #MattFurie's new book IP and these coins, I feel like I'm becoming a coin circle Conan

From the initial 30 million $RATO to the later 10 million #BOOCHIE, and now to the current 10 million $GASS, the leading coins change every day, not to mention retail investors have to turn into detectives to distinguish the truth

As a result, I found that the truth doesn't matter; whoever has the highest market cap is the boss. I remember when #RATO was over ten million, GASS's official Twitter was riding on the mouse's popularity, now yesterday's star has fallen, the old cat has risen to become today's star, and a new mouse $RATOS's official Twitter is posting to ride the hype

Why do I mention the new mouse RATOS? Because I made a guess in the group yesterday, ever since @beuys_on_sale revealed that the new book has mouse RATOS and cat GASS, GASS the cat is currently the role with the highest certainty

And the mouse is still in controversy, plus @RatoTheRatCoin's official Twitter hasn't updated for two days, at this time, a new mouse @RatosCTO appears. Except for not having an official website, the other operations are somewhat similar to the old mouse, making it easy to imagine that the team might have directly switched coins?

Of course, this is just a guess. Currently, for the mouse role, RATO is still the token with the strongest foundational consensus. Perhaps the official is playing dead to plan something big. Regardless of whether the mouse is real or fake, in the adult world, we don’t make choices.

How many strong support zones has SOL had since 2023?
1. $18-33, this is the accumulation zone before the surge in October 2023.
2. $44-65, this is the continuation zone after the surge in October 2023, and more importantly, the third zone.
3. $80-100, this is the consolidation zone after the surge in early 2024.
Note that this zone did not break below $85 last year, stabilizing above $110, but has broken below since April this year.
4. $100-112, this zone has also been tested back and forth before.

BTC cannot only rise without falling; true easing is still far off. The surge in May only delayed the crisis, it does not mean it won't come.

If BTC dips further, can SOL, which is already very weak, avoid dropping? Just look at how it has fallen from $180 to around $150 in recent days.

This is not bearish; it is being pragmatic. Bold prediction: we might see SOL at a significant discount this year.
Let's wait and see.

Summary of 8 years of trading experience: a good trading strategy is the key to stable profits! The following is for your reference.

Coins protected by market makers:
When the market crashes, if the coins in hand do not drop, it is highly likely that there are market makers protecting them. These coins either have solid fundamentals or potential positive news, so hold on tight; the future profit potential is large.

Newbie moving average guide:
Newbies should pay more attention to macro information when buying and selling. For short-term, observe the 5-day moving average, hold as long as it is above the line, and exit if it breaks; for medium-term, focus on the 20-day moving average and operate similarly. Stick to a simple moving average strategy and act decisively.

Short-term response strategy:
If a coin bought for short-term trading does not move for three days, switch immediately. If it drops right after buying and incurs a 5% loss, decisively cut losses, use funds efficiently, and avoid further losses.

Opportunity for rebound after a sharp decline:
If a coin is halved from a high position and has dropped for nine consecutive days, it may have fallen as much as it can, and a rebound is imminent, so buy decisively to catch the rebound.

Leading coin investment logic:
In the cryptocurrency space, one should pursue leading coins, as they have strong upward momentum and resistance to declines. Do not hesitate due to high prices or significant drops; buy when the upward trend is established and sell during reversals.

The CME's $BTC has a gap between $91,970 and $92,525, which is also the only Bitcoin daily level gap since May 10, 2023.

Of course, filling the gap is a matter of speculation; it may not necessarily happen, and it's uncertain when it will occur. However, the probability of the gap being filled is indeed quite high, with the overall gap filling rate exceeding 95%.

The filling rate within a year is over 90%. The longer the time frame, the lower the probability of being filled. More than 70% of gaps are filled within three months. Previous statistics have been done on this aspect.

BTC is currently on the red line, the 4h resistance level is effective, the market is quite friendly, using a narrow loss scalping strategy, the recent win rate has also been 100%, making it seem like a perpetual profit blogger, but that's not the case. In every trade, I have a very tight stop loss, and even leverage exceeds 200x, fixing a small loss amount for a large profit. It's just that the entry position is good and hasn't hit the stop loss. So remember these two key principles:

1. Don't open a position if the entry is not good; don't enter at mid-range positions.
2. When you see support on the lower band and resistance on the upper band, enter bravely, set a good stop loss, keep some buffer, don't be too strict, and keep the stop loss amount small. Maintain a stable mindset.

Market Analysis

During the top phase of Bitcoin, altcoins will definitely not have particularly smooth market conditions.

At most, there will be scattered hotspots at a primary level, but often the ceiling won't be very high.

This can be seen from the chart of Bitcoin's market capitalization share below.

Bitcoin's market capitalization share continues to break through.

🟥 Therefore, there are two possible scenarios:

First scenario:

Either Bitcoin drops less than altcoins.

Second scenario:

Bitcoin rises, continuing to drain altcoins.

I personally lean towards the first scenario.

The current market has already entered hell mode, and everyone should focus on stability during this phase.

Accumulate capital and patiently wait for a big market at the end of the year.