甜梦

SEC Announcement: The Dogecoin Celebration Continues!

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has officially “unshackled” meme coins—these cryptocurrency assets driven by memes, communities, and emotions do not fall under the category of securities and are currently not regulated by federal securities laws.

💡 The SEC defines three main characteristics:
1️⃣ Purely entertainment properties: buying coins not for functionality, but for “having fun” and community presence;
2️⃣ Zero practicality: once obtained, they can only serve as “digital collectibles,” without redeemable value or governance participation;
3️⃣ High-risk warning: project teams clearly state “don’t expect to make money, the risks are yours to bear.”

🚨 Risk Warning:

- Price volatility is extreme, as seen when Trump coin surged 1250% in one day and then plummeted by 80%;

- Over 86% of traders lose money in celebrity-backed projects;

- Fraud remains illegal: if it involves false advertising or misappropriation of funds, the SEC will still take strong action.

📉 The Cost of Regulatory Vacuum:

- The threshold for issuing coins is extremely low, with one-click generation tools rampant;

- Over 95% of meme coins ultimately go to zero due to lack of value support;

- Retail investors are easily manipulated by “pump-and-dump” schemes, as seen with the LIBRA project team stealing $100 million.

👉 Conclusion: SEC inaction ≠ safety; treating cryptocurrency as “high-risk entertainment” is advisable, participate with disposable income, and be wary of celebrity endorsements and community brainwashing.

$EOS has mentioned before that around 0.8, there is a high probability of testing the 0.77 support, and sure enough, after verification, it shot up directly. Those who followed this wave have at least a floating profit of 10%+!

However, today the market has shown signs of weakening on a small scale:

Key point: 0.77
Once it breaks, the short-term structure turns bearish!

Support to watch: 0.72 / 0.66
Remember to switch operations flexibly, don't hold on stubbornly!

The big pancake is really hard to kill! It's rock solid!
Liquidity crisis warning!
U.S. stocks continue to decline. Institutions need to supplement their margin.
Institutions will sell other financial products to supplement their margin.
Including, gold, crude oil, big pancakes!
Spiral sell-off decline.
Global collapse! But it's also a once-in-decades opportunity!
Temporarily hard. Once it breaks, it will flood out in torrents!
Reference 2008. Asset shrinkage of 70%!

Bitcoin rises, it falls alone
Bitcoin falls, it falls even harder
This is the best state
Initial profit-taking
Now buying pressure is weak
Continuous decreasing volume and falling will continue

I currently have only these two positions
Shorting EOS strategy
1. The Bitcoin exchange rate has reached a resistance level
2. The price is close to its own extreme resistance level of 1 USD
3. Spot + futures trading volume increased by over 30%, and the price remains fluctuating with a slight decline, which indicates increased selling.

I shorted at the peak with low leverage, so I decided to hold a long-term short position, even if there is a secondary rebound, I remain steadfast.
Of course, one can also take ultra-short positions, such as high leverage positions in 15 minutes or 1 hour for quick entries and exits, which requires extreme precision on entry points.

Therefore, before opening a position, you need to think clearly about the strategy
Short frequency with high leverage, long-term with low leverage
(This is an essential part of the trading system)

Bitcoin's fluctuations in the past two days should not be too large, it’s best to stabilize at 84,000, then wait for the US stock market to open on Monday. If the S&P drops by two points, it will trigger a level one circuit breaker, and the fluctuations will be executed within the range. If you're not confident, you can also hedge with Ethereum.

BTC's performance yesterday began to diverge from the US stock market, returning to its inherent characteristics. While the US stock market experienced a significant decline, BTC actually showed a slight upward movement. This itself indicates that this market can no longer decline; further drops are not what the market makers want to see. After finally pushing the price to this level, it won't easily go down.
In this larger economic context, if the US stock market remains unstable and there are many negative news reports, it will create a situation where bottom-fishing becomes difficult. The market makers, who originally intended to pump the prices, will also halt their plans. When the timing, location, and people are not all favorable, the risk of being caught in a counter-trend pump is high. Once a bear market gene is left behind, it becomes challenging to shake it off; the past OP/LDO had a strong bear market gene, making it difficult to create momentum later on due to high selling pressure and following trades.
The original plan for bottom-fishing may need to extend until May or June; for now, it cannot rise and can only be considered running within a range, failing to create a reversal. If a reversal cannot be achieved, then there’s nothing to play with. Rather than following the trend, it might be better to just lie down and take a nap.

In the second half of the year, a rate cut by the Federal Reserve is essentially a done deal; it's just a matter of timing.

Hong Kong stocks are likely to peak in the short term, while U.S. stocks are expected to bottom out in the short term. Smart money will make new choices; everyone understands this.

The fact that Bitcoin remains so strong after this wave of global panic says it all.

Bitcoin will rise and fall amid various bearish doubts until the final surge is completed.

As for altcoins, there will only be speculative opportunities when Bitcoin is in an upward trend.

Those who cut losses and are bearish on Bitcoin are destined to miss out.

Having experienced the event before March 12, when BTC did not follow the drop during the first stock market circuit breaker, I now even have some hope that BTC will either crash or spike!

At that time, a certain big shot in the crypto circle gave me 5 BTC to operate freely, saying any losses would be on him. So I went long with double my position at 7800, thinking with 2x leverage, I wouldn't get liquidated even if I held to the end! Later, when the Federal Reserve resumed rate cuts, the bull market continued~

As a result, that position blew up in less than 3 days...

Of course, my own position also suffered greatly...

Since then, I have never taken anyone else's coins again, refusing all asset management. I also no longer leverage my own funds beyond 2x; I was really scared...

So later during the entire bull market, I used a trend-following strategy with 1.5x leverage to ride it up. I missed out on too much profit but gained "recovery from anxiety and severe depression".

The big shot didn’t actually blame me, just said, "It's okay, be careful next time!" and that was the end of it...

So now, with the stock market almost circuit breaking, BTC not dropping but even rising, it has kept me from sleeping until now...

Not because I have a spot position, but simply because the PTSD has flared up...

When memories flood back, my hands are shaking...

The US stock market has plummeted, and the US index is about to fall to the point of circuit breaker. Bitcoin, the rebellious child, can still rise. It is a bit unbelievable. BTC is dancing on the grave of the US stock market crash, and it is estimated that it will not be able to dance for long.

Tell me, how can Bitcoin, the rebellious child, still rise against the trend? What is the logic?

Trump's tariff policy has finally landed, and fortunately, the market had already digested a large part of the news in advance; otherwise, Bitcoin would have strongly broken down.
From the four-hour level, Bitcoin quickly rallied after retracing to the 💲81000 line. There is strong resistance at the short-term upper level of 💲84000, and the real strong resistance at the four-hour level is at 💲89000.
From the daily level, on April 2nd, there was a large bearish candle that significantly dropped, but fortunately, the daily level did not strongly break through the 💲81000 line. Yesterday, the daily line closed with a small bullish candle. The market is generally in a weak rebound, but there are signs of a stop in the decline.
From the four-hour level, Ethereum showed a weak rebound after retracing to the 💲1750 line. I have repeatedly emphasized that Ethereum's bullish trend has completely ended, and it is only a rebound.
There is strong resistance at the upper 💲1920 line, and 💲2200 is the strong resistance at the four-hour level for Ethereum.
From the daily level, Ethereum is in a weak rebound consolidation. The rebound resistance indicates that if there is no large bullish candle breaking through and stabilizing at the daily level for Ethereum, then Ethereum's bullish strength will not further rise. The strong resistance at the upper daily level for Ethereum is 💲2200.
At this stage, Ethereum is only suitable for short-term swing trading and not for medium to long-term holding.

Let's review $LD

First of all, the narrative itself is fine; it’s just a medium-level target.

Setting aside the broader environment,

there are several peculiar points in between that may be the reason this wave ended.

1) No domestic KOCs got in

2) After DNF got in, a bunch of front-line shipments happened, creating a feeling that DNF was ambushed, reminiscent of the current BSC: everywhere is an ambush

3) In the middle, there was a choppy washout, it was pulled up to nearly 900k but couldn't be moved further, the short forces were too strong. Combined with the first point, it shows there is no strong fund, just retail traders playing around

4) [The most peculiar point] 11:10-11:22, a small rebound, after which retail traders found they couldn't push it higher. Suddenly, there was a sharp drop without any negative news, at this point, one should realize that retail traders have left, and this market is gone

In the end, I found that when the market considers 'Musk's reply and retweet' as the last piece of good news, it basically means this market has reached its end.

Taking $LD as an example, when Trump and a series of official media speak out but can't move the market, it actually indicates that the ceiling of this market has been reached.

Musk's call is just a fish leaping, creating a splash.

---

Next time, remember not to fall into the trap of 'waiting for Musk's reply'.

After all, when good news lands, it is the biggest bad news.

Let's talk about the strategy for XRP, and then you can operate on your own. In this kind of market, I don't really want to issue trades. The profit margin will keep getting smaller, so everyone should play with small positions gradually.

Now, let's see if there is a recovery after a 1H divergence that doesn't exceed 2.07 (1), we can short again. If it breaks through 2.07, then we will look for opportunities around 2.15 (2).

Overall market judgment: government bond yields continue to decline, U.S. stocks continue to fall, and I don't believe it will revert to an upward trend. The main trend is sideways and bearish.

Good morning
1. The past couple of days have been particularly tough, especially for altcoins, while Bitcoin remains strong above 80,000. In fact, all the benefits of Trump's administration have been fully digested, and it is now time for the true value to return.
2. The worst times have passed, and the rebound will be fierce. There is a decent opportunity every month, even in a bear market.
What we can do is to reduce frequent operations, and when the opportunity arises, we can take action.
3. Currently, there is no leader on the BSc chain, but observing BNB, it has been performing the best in the market. I expect the BNB chain won't settle down easily; we need to wait for a signal. After all, in a bull market, it's about how to cash out. We must create hotspots to cash out. We will wait for the opportunity; the four platforms have reverted back, and the last digit is also 4444, but we are still missing a blockbuster to look forward to.
4. This year, I plan to clear all my altcoins when the opportunity arises, waiting for a rebound. In this round of the bull market, I actually made a lot in the early stages, but later the situation reverted. In fact, you can only make money when there is no pattern this time. No matter how hot the narrative is, it basically comes in waves.

At present, it seems that the hourly chart has temporarily stopped falling, the four-hour chart shows initial signs of a halt in the decline, and the daily chart has formed a pin bar; whether the decline has indeed stopped needs verification.

From the daily chart perspective, a new low has broken the low of March 31, and it is clear that the right shoulder we previously saw has failed. We need to wait for a new 'suspected' right shoulder bottoming point to form.

Although there are short-term signals indicating a stop in the decline, it is still crucial to consider the impact of macro factors. The employment data on Friday and Powell's speech are the last key points of this week.

To be honest, I don't think the current daily chart movement reflects a right shoulder formation.

Let's wait and see!

VC coins are really fucking over. Stakeston opened with an FDV of only 60M.

Dude, am I really not seeing clearly? This was the LST protocol with an FDV of 2B back in the day.

All the major projects are not pretending anymore, they just let it go and opened without any support or price manipulation. Anyway, VC has already secured their financing, they can just pay salaries and get by.

There’s also a top-tier Babylonia, where many stakers can't even cover the GAS costs. The previous expected FDV was 5-10B, now it's comfortable, huh, bringing the pre-market price down to 600M.

Very good, very good, if all the clones are at this price then it's interesting, there’s always a way to find gold, after all, there are no more clones opening at a few billion to suck blood.

Alright, alright, push it down, destroy it, and rebuild.

Let me talk about the range for the lowest point of the next bear market for SOL: 60-69 (under non-extreme conditions).

This round, SOL's highest point is 34 points higher than the last round's highest point. In the last bear market, it corrected to around 35 and consolidated for a long time; that was the lowest point. However, it encountered the FTX crash and dropped rapidly to 8, which is an extreme situation and should not be used as a reference for normal market conditions. So the lowest point is at least 35 + 34 = 69.

This round, SOL started its upward trend around 35 and rose continuously for 5 months to 206, which was from the end of October the year before last to March last year. I continuously bought from around 35 to 206. Those who followed this trade basically became wealthy and relaxed by March last year. Before this, I only had a few dozen followers on Twitter. Binance Square became popular first.

Today marks another massive crash of altcoins, and this may just be the beginning.

There are likely to be more collective crashes of altcoins to come, followed by Ethereum, Solana, and finally Bitcoin crashing and plummeting. Only when all coins experience a crash and plummet once will the market see a true bottom.

Currently, absolutely do not try to catch the bottom of altcoins!!

Since Trump came into power, he completely ignores the normal operation direction and gravity laws of the daily charts, regardless of the news within the day. Support and resistance, waiting for the closing line, all of it is useless. It can't withstand what the guys say, it has already turned into pure gambling on size ‹(⁼̴̀д⁼̴́)›

In the past, during market movements influenced by news like ETFs, one could roughly guess whether someone had insider information based on the market movements before the news broke. For such a significant matter, during the drafting and approval process, there are always staff members who know; information gets sold to Wall Street, which then dives in and creates this kind of preemptive movement.

Now, since the market liquidity is also being drained, there are usually no significant fluctuations. When there are no fluctuations, retail investors increase their leverage to pursue the same amount of fluctuation as their capital, luring us to play contracts (ง●皿●)ง, and then use news to take it all away in one go. This is how it was played in the previous bear market after the market was halved; the only difference is that this time it is still at a high level. After the lack of fluctuations, the conspiracy group can pull a small-level trick to deceive the foolish ones into following at a much lower cost, of course, the amount that can be sold has also decreased significantly.

Now on news days, before the President's speech at the Federal Reserve, the market's random oscillation range is large, filled with dramatic reversals. It must flip and then flip again several times; as for whether the flipping is odd or even, where it lands has become purely a matter of luck. The support and resistance and technical positions drawn when liquidity was good have become fragile and cheap now that liquidity is poor.
🥹
Reaching this position and touching on a false breakout itself indicates that this hard support is no longer strong enough.

To determine whether a coin is worth holding long-term and has significant growth potential, the following points should be followed:
1. FIRST IS FIRST
2. There is a project team (that can continuously develop)
3. The project team is visible (this is very important)
4. The project team has received investment
5. The token has real utility, such as functional use
6. Strong or multiple narratives
7. Stable community foundation
8. Healthy holding addresses, no wash trading
9. Supported by other ecosystems
10. Mutual recognition between China and the West

If a coin meets all of the above 10 points, congratulations, you have boarded the wealth spaceship, waiting for takeoff.