Why are we obsessed with escaping the top on the left side? Because a top formation, such as an M top or a head and shoulders top, needs to confirm the shape on the right side. Generally, it is very normal for the price to be 20-30% below the top;

Using the weekly chart as the trading trend cycle, for example, the current price of BTC is 115,000 USD. It must drop to 97,000 USD to touch the upper median line. Here, we need to observe the volume and contract data to determine whether the price drop is due to urgent news or a slow decline. These two natures are different; news-induced drops or sharp declines with high volume may allow for bottom fishing, but a slow decline leading to a breakdown should not be seen as an opportunity to buy the dip. Using the weekly chart as a cycle, we need to confirm an effective breakdown below 80,000 USD to validate that the weekly chart confirms the end of the bull market. This range of 120,000-80,000 USD is where the greatest skepticism from bulls and bears usually lies; both sides have their reasons, but they are merely guesses. Simply from the market perspective, no viewpoint can be supported as right or wrong. That’s why smart traders, after completing a major surge, habitually reduce their positions to secure profits while waiting for opportunities;

The larger the arbitrage space, the higher the risk. Remember what the captain said about contract-led hedging, with spot market coordination for stretching. In the early stages, contracts growing together with the spot market provide support, but once the distance from the bottom becomes too large, this may not hold. Now, there are still people eager to jump in with money. I can’t say the trend has ended, but the risks are increasing. Most who chase highs end up with floating profits without understanding how to control their positions for profit-taking, ultimately getting trapped and resorting to increasing their positions, leading to a deadlock; (Remember, as I said earlier, breaking and effectively breaking are two different concepts.)

The current play of BTC resembles the standard play of leading stocks in the US stock market. So what are the characteristics of the tech stocks' movements in the US? They keep falling, falling all the way down, with months of declines and no rebounds, only V-shaped rebounds without any pullbacks. Will BTC behave this way? Time will tell;

I advise everyone, don’t bring people around you into the market anymore. If you make money, they won’t thank you; if they lose, you’ll likely have to bear the losses.