The impact of ancient whales selling on the market can be understood from two dimensions.

From a medium to long-term perspective, during the oscillating rise of Bitcoin from April to July, the trading volume of the upward movement has been decreasing, and the divergence between volume and price has become increasingly evident, indicating that buying pressure is gradually exhausting. The large trading volume on July 14 provided a stop signal, and the significant drop in volume on July 15 and July 25 caused by the ancient whale sell-off indicates that selling pressure is starting to gain momentum and is overwhelming buying pressure, taking a significant advantage. Therefore, this suggests that the upward trend since April has ended or is close to ending, and it is not suitable to continue being bullish.

From a short-term perspective, the completion of the ancient whale sell-off means that the short-term bearish sentiment has mostly played out. Although it has significantly consumed buying pressure, it is likely to see a short-term recovery after an oversold condition, possibly a rebound towards the short-term trend line.

From an operational perspective, it can currently be confirmed that it is no longer suitable to go long on Bitcoin, but this does not mean it is appropriate to immediately go short, especially it is not suitable to aggressively short with heavy positions right now.

For example, the significant drop on December 6 last year was a signal of major players unloading, indicating that the upward trend of Bitcoin was nearing its end. However, Bitcoin did not continue to drop; instead, it consolidated for over three months before experiencing a deep decline, during which it even reached new highs twice.

Regarding the timing of operations, I will wait to enter the market when Bitcoin rebounds toward the short-term trend line.