When others panic, I am greedy! Bitcoin plunged 114,700 yesterday, and altcoins crashed! Today Bitcoin rebounded sharply, with the altcoin market all in the green! Sweet Dream clearly reminded in yesterday's article (Reasons for Bitcoin's Plunge Revealed! Has Bitcoin Hit Bottom? Can We Catch the Bottom? How to Catch the Bottom? Explained in One Article!) that: 'The points for placing long orders in batches: 115055, 113855, 112850 (extreme low), defend at 112000. Do not short at this point; it will recover quickly, and shorting is difficult. Holding high positions is fine, at most a little profit withdrawal.' Fans who followed Sweet Dream's layout of long orders made a lot, earning over 3000. Fans who followed can choose to take profits in batches.
BTC
Whales have sold tens of thousands of Bitcoin, but Bitcoin still hovers around 120,000, indicating that the market's absorption power is very strong.
Bitcoin dipped below 115000 yesterday but was quickly recovered. The buying pressure below is strong. With fewer whale sell-offs, it will be relatively difficult for the short-term market to decline. There are currently no significant bullish factors, and a direct rise is also challenging. It is expected that late July will be an adjustment period, continuing until early August, followed by another wave of speculation on rate cuts in September, and then another adjustment for one to two months.
Strategy: Bitcoin long support line at 112000, with 113800-112400 being a strong support. Short-term resistance is at 118800-119600, and crucial pressure is at 121000. If it stands above 121000, the new high will be 125000. Therefore, within this range, Bitcoin should be long on the low and short on the high.
ETH
ETH retraced to 3600 and 3636 last night. During the day yesterday, the lowest retracement point was 3570, and last night's highest rebound was 3746. Last night's lowest retracement was 3600, which was 30 points higher than yesterday's lowest point. Today’s daytime rebound to 3746 + 30 = 3766 or 3746 + 66 = 3812 is all normal. These two positions are resistance for 6 and 8-hour level rebounds.
For Ethereum to continue rising, it must first break through the upper boundary of the triangle pattern, and only by breaking through the neckline marked in the chart can it sustain the upward trend and look towards the previous high position.
Ethereum faces 12 billion in selling pressure soon
On-chain data shows that there are currently 730,000 Ethereum waiting to be unstaked, with an average waiting time of 12 days. This is the largest withdrawal in Ethereum's history, bar none, and this number keeps rising.
This means that in 12 days, Ethereum will face $2.5 billion in selling pressure. According to the market cap ratio converted to Bitcoin, this is equivalent to Bitcoin facing $10 billion in selling pressure, which is considerable.
Ethereum's last chance
The only good news is that Ethereum has 12 days left; this is its last chance. Whether it can surge by 4000 dollars and then plummet depends on the next two weeks.
In addition to the coins that are about to be unlocked, there are 250,000 Ethereum waiting to be staked, roughly one-third of the unlocking amount. But the difference is that the coins waiting to be staked have already been purchased and will not be bought again, whereas the unlocked coins may flood the market for selling, creating significant selling pressure that may appear in the next week or two.
Honestly, I am still a bit unwilling, because the Altcoin Season Index has not yet reached its peak; it has probably gone about 2/3 of the way. Logically, it should continue for a while, but unfortunately, many data points have begun to show signs of profit-taking, so I am now very cautious, only doing short-term longs and shorts, and not holding coins long-term.
SOL
SOL is about to experience the same micro-strategy type of coin-stock linkage as Ethereum and Bitcoin. The ETF for SOL was approved in October, providing Wall Street with a purchasing channel, and unlike Ethereum, it does not have the Grayscale unlocking selling pressure, so SOL should surge.
Epic updates for SOL are coming soon!
Because the latest proposal 0286 suggests upgrading the network, raising the computing unit limit from 60 million to 100 million, which will speed up the SOL network by 66%, a significant improvement, expected to pass in a month. Regardless of whether it's the ETF or the upgrade news, retail investors are unaware, creating an information gap.
The market plummeted yesterday, and Sweet Dream knew that the opportunity for a rebound had come, directly urging everyone to enter contracts. Sweet Dream took the opportunity to bottom-fish SOL at 177, making a profit of 159%.
Altcoin password
Recently, the community has recommended ultra-short-term cryptocurrencies such as SHELL, NXPC, ERA, HOME, BEAMX. In the last five days, eight coins have been recommended, with five achieving profit! Over 70% returns! In this market, do not play diamond hands, but rather make waves. More explosive coins will be recommended by the community soon for everyone to keep an eye on.
Next week's turning point
The biggest event of this month
(1) Federal Reserve interest rate meeting
Next Thursday at 2 a.m., the probability of a rate cut in July is 0%, and the probability in September is 50-50. The more pressure Trump puts on Powell, the less likely the Fed will cut rates. CME's latest expectations show a 2.6% probability of a rate cut in July and 61.9% in September, with a total of 1-2 rate cuts expected throughout the year.
(2) Trump’s tariffs expire
Trump's tariff relief ends on August 1, which caused a surge in both the crypto and US stock markets due to the tariff relief in early July. However, when tariffs are officially implemented on August 1, we cannot ignore the possibility that the market may exhaust its bullish momentum and begin to pull back. We should also prepare to buy in if there is indeed a significant drop.
