江满楼

$BTC US stock retail investors are also not proper people. Let's all rise high.

This morning, I said in a short post that this kind of low-volume rise makes it very difficult to break the 98 resistance level, as there are real sell orders that require large funds to digest. Then, upon waking up, we are already above 99, and indeed, the trading data is here. Although the total net inflow is not much, a substantial amount of buying funds has digested the resistance level, which is not related to the operations of fund parties, because there are actual large transactions. You can directly look at the situation in the US stock market (there exists a type of financial derivative that synchronously fluctuates with Bitcoin and NASDAQ volatility; I can't recall its name at the moment). Additionally, many people in the square have recently made money. If you are making continuous long positions because you see this upward trend, congratulations, your strategy is very solid, and making money is expected. If it’s the hindsight type, where you ignore all logic because of the rise, or you can twist all the news into something positive after the fact, I can only say, well, money made by luck will eventually be lost back. In short, the price is indeed rising, and whatever you say is correct. Interest rate cuts are positive; not cutting rates in May is also within expectations. The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance makes the probability of a rate cut in June lower, which is also positive. If the talks between China and the US in a couple of days do not go well, that is also expected and positive; if they go well, that is positive too. A strong dollar indicates a good US economy, which is positive; a weak dollar means investing in non-dollar assets, which is also positive. When gold falls, Bitcoin rises, which is positive because funds are flowing out of gold and into Bitcoin, giving it more appreciation potential. When gold rises and Bitcoin also rises, that is positive because Bitcoin is also seen as digital gold. Really, it’s nice to have such a logic that can justify everything just because the price has risen. I hope you continue to maintain this kind of thinking.

$BTC US stocks are the same, it’s all about the experts now. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's bearish remarks did not cause a drop; Trump's announcement of major news at night made US stocks soar. This is how it is when emotional capital dominates; last night in the live stream, I even complained a few times that the current US stocks are just like the A-shares before last year's National Day, with institutional funds gradually flowing out of the stock market, but retail funds rushing in with bullish sentiment, not retreating until the bubble bursts. There's really not much to analyze anymore; I don't have much capital either, so I might as well give a few hundred thousand to the market as fuel~

$BTC can't figure it out, ETF funds have already started to net outflows, and this doesn't even account for yesterday and today. While Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech was relatively neutral, it was anticipated to have a hawkish stance, at least implying that the probability of interest rate cuts in the short term is very low. Now, the big funds have already started to flow out, the policy environment is relatively bearish, and the technical aspect is even worse; there has been a demand for technical correction for over a month. However, it just can't go down and occasionally rises with decreased volume. I can only say that we retail investors really lack trading volume; the funds can manipulate the trading volume little by little, pushing the price up and creating a recent consensus in the market that it only goes up and not down. To be honest, even I have been worn down to the point of having a psychological illusion that 'recently it just goes up and doesn't come down.' People often say there are traps for both bulls and bears, but I don't know whether this long-term one-sided control of rising prices with reduced volume is a real trend or just a psychological consensus of bullishness. If it's a psychological consensus of bullishness, then it really is much more powerful than technical indicators. I really feel like I have no temper left. But the strong resistance at 98 isn't going to be breached anytime soon because you are dealing with rising prices on reduced volume, without any positive news to drive large amounts of funds into a position that can't digest the selling at strong resistance. However, this area of horizontal movement caused by the reduced volume gives everyone a psychological illusion of not being able to stay down for long. I admire it, okay? 😑 This time, I'll just directly point to a green rise symbol when I post.

$BTC In the morning, Nasdaq futures surged, and so did Bitcoin. The news said it was affected by trade news, but I looked around and there was no related news, only a piece of information from our Ministry of Commerce. However, even if the news was released a little late, it would not make the US stock market so excited just because we agreed to contact and talk...

$BTC In fact, recently the US stock market has been subtly making me feel like there will be a new major shift. It's important to note that in the past few weeks, the three major US stock indices have basically reclaimed the losses following the imposition of tariffs. Even with the support from previous interest rate cut expectations, the impact of tariffs still exists, and fully reclaiming lost ground clearly does not conform to normal logic. On Monday, despite the closing price being not much different from the pre-market trading, and even slightly rising by 0.1%, it was obvious that there was a lack of momentum afterwards. With questions in mind, I searched for related information, and indeed it was interesting. During this rebound of the US stock market, a large amount of institutional funds from the US have been quietly withdrawing from US stocks and US bonds. The bulk of the money that filled this 'golden pit' came from American retail investors, with over $40 billion flowing into US stocks. Where did the institutional funds go? They went to yen, US dollars, currencies of small Southeast Asian countries, and even Hong Kong stocks, and of course, a portion also went into the cryptocurrency market we are in. This also explains the strange exchange rate fluctuations seen on the day of May 2nd for the Hong Kong dollar and several other currencies. I don’t know if any friends remember the currency news from that day. Due to the character limit, I won't expand on the analysis, but to conclude: a new round of significant correction in the US stock market seems inevitable, and for those playing in the US stock market, remember to exit early. Additionally, Bitcoin is likely to undergo a correction as well, but it should only reach the 80s and not the 70s. When the currencies of Southeast Asian countries can start to bear some safe-haven attributes (which they shouldn't normally, as gold and yen have already risen too high), Bitcoin will do the same; when Bitcoin drops to a certain price, its safe-haven attribute will be reflected, expected around the 8.5 range. This means that regardless of what happens this year, it is very unlikely that we will see a 70s figure again. The reason is not based on any K-line chart analysis, but on the actual world economic situation and the demand for financial assets. If this round indeed goes below 85, I will also consider taking a long-term bullish position.

$BTC has never believed that interest rates will be cut from start to finish. Of course, in the end, we have to wait for the results of the interest rate meeting on the 8th, otherwise it would be like popping champagne halfway.

The most fun part is occasionally seeing the comments of the cool little kid on the square who spins around on others. I admit he has more experience in short-term trading, especially ultra-short-term trading, than many people, and his mentality is better, playing more aggressively, which is why he can achieve high returns in a short time. However, listening to him analyze the economic and financial situation is really amusing. A kid from 2003 with no relevant professional knowledge, who has only been trading coins for a few years, speaks grandly, with various logical flaws throughout his discourse, mixed with a lot of 'unprovable' conspiracy theory analysis. I don't know if the people who enjoy listening to him are younger than him, have lower cognitive abilities, or simply think he is right because he has made quite a bit of money from ultra-short contracts. Overall, it feels like the cryptocurrency circle, especially the contract trading circle, is too seriously skewed towards younger ages.

Real selling pressure. I talked to many friends last night. The negative impact of the non-farm payroll report will lead to a decline after the US stock market closes. The non-farm payroll report reflects the current economic situation in the US; a figure higher than expected indicates better conditions than imagined, which provides a temporary boost to market confidence in US stocks. Given that the overall trend will still be consistent with the trading period of US stocks, there won’t be a decline last night, or it might even rise a bit. However, the strong non-farm data will actually reduce the expectation of an interest rate cut in June (the recent rise of Bitcoin is related to the prediction of interest rate cuts by many funds, and many have emphasized this, with corresponding data and information supporting it). Therefore, it is essentially negative for Bitcoin, and there will be a decline after the market closes. However, this is merely a signal of a correction; the decline is partly due to some funds gradually exiting the market. The real correction will definitely depend on the comments from the Federal Reserve after the interest rate meeting on the 8th. If there are hawkish comments, then the real correction will begin.

On the afternoon of $BTC , the Governor of the Bank of Japan 🇯🇵 spoke, mentioning the economic uncertainty caused by tariffs and the potential delay of the expected interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan. This really dealt a heavy blow to the air force that was just about to see some light. Following his remarks, there was a significant influx of buying during the Asian session, breaking through previous highs, which is quite frustrating. Next, let's look at the negotiation results regarding the US-Japan tariff issue. If an agreement is reached and tariffs return to a lower rate, then interest rate hikes will continue, which would be bad news for the market. If no agreement is reached, a hike in Japan's interest rates is likely to be a long way off, allowing the bulls to continue their victory.

To add some external context: China, the UK, and Japan are leading the way in selling US Treasury bonds, which is actually aimed at continuing to weaken the dollar and forcing the Federal Reserve to avoid cutting interest rates to keep the dollar index stable above 95. It's not that Japan, the UK, and we are standing together; it's just that the starting points are different, but the final goals from each of our interests happen to align. The comment section has limited space, so I can discuss this further when I have time. In short, considering the external pressure, I judge that an early interest rate cut is highly unlikely, and the small rally led by funds betting on a rate cut is also likely to come to an end. As for its safe-haven attributes, it only activates upon a significant drop.

This wave at 6 o'clock is a real exchange pump. Basically, it's a sure thing. No doubt about it.

$BTC No surprises, no rate cuts, hawkish remarks, U.S. stocks continue to decline. However, Bitcoin has its own independent market tonight, with significant capital supporting it, very strong. Let's see when you'll independently crash the market and collect bloodied chips in the next few days.

At the same time, I would like to share some information: over the past three months, the correlation between Bitcoin's price movement and the Nasdaq index has reached as high as 0.85, while in the last three days, this correlation has dropped to between 0.6 and 0.7. One reason is due to the selling by US institutions over the past two months, which has led to a dispersion of holdings and a decrease in the synchronization rate brought by index funds. The other reason is the attempt of new funds to take action. Everyone should be cautious; currently, Bitcoin and US stocks are in a state of 'trend following, phase differentiation.'

At 1:30 AM, Powell is scheduled to speak. After that, U.S. stocks and gold rarely rose in sync before the market opened. It’s a rare situation for a pair of hedging products, indicating that both sides are placing bets: those betting on a rate cut are buying U.S. stocks, while those betting against a rate cut are buying gold. It's very interesting, but my personal judgment is that there is an 80% chance there will not be a rate cut, which would be bearish for U.S. stocks, and later in the evening, the big picture will continue to decline. We will see the final result tonight~

The post written yesterday afternoon by $BTC , as expected, I can only say haha. Unfortunately, I really didn't anticipate that the lagging decline of other global stock markets during the day would lead to such a drop, and my long position just returned to the holding price. Let's hold on and expect a rebound by Wednesday or Thursday.

$BTC I see many people in the square are paying attention to the most important non-farm data at 9:30 PM, but perhaps half of them don't really understand whether a lower than expected result is bullish or bearish for Bitcoin... I don't believe everyone will express their opinions below, let's see if the comment section can have two different answers...