This time, I really need to criticize Dog.

Let’s get to the conclusion: The surge of nearly 3000 points at 5:50 AM today was not a washout; it was a hard pull by Dog, occurring among the top five exchanges and Tether.

First, let’s talk about the bizarre movements of Bitcoin recently. Many people are confused and there are all sorts of speculations. I’d like to share my viewpoint.

In the second half of last year, after crypto supporter Trump won the election, the price of Bitcoin reached an all-time high, driven largely by the entry of institutions from Europe and America. After all, price rises depend on real capital inflows. The new president is a supporter of cryptocurrencies and emphasized the need for legislation to guarantee the legality of these assets, thus endowing them with compliant investment properties. However, due to the high concentration of chips in the hands of institutions and enterprises, Bitcoin's hedging properties have declined. This does not require much explanation; relatively centralized investment products carry this risk factor. Therefore, in recent months, Bitcoin has become a specific investment target for American investment institutions, which is essentially not much different from investing in a particular stock. This explains the high correlation of Bitcoin's price movements with the Nasdaq and S&P indices at over 0.85 in recent months and is also the early directional indicator for Bitcoin's movements this year—Bitcoin follows how US stocks move.

Reaching the second stage, when Trump initiated the trade war, US stocks were affected by tariffs, leading to increased import costs for many companies and decreased expected profits from exports due to counteractions, causing stock prices to fall. Bitcoin, which is closely correlated with US stocks at over 0.85, also fell along with it. After all, during this stage, converting all funds into cash to observe market changes is the safest approach. A few days after the tariffs were implemented, US stocks reached a recent bottom, and Bitcoin's corresponding price dropped to 74,500. Thus began the next phase for Bitcoin.

Last week, on April 16th, I also mentioned that the correlation between Bitcoin's price movements and US stocks had dropped to 0.65. Many people probably felt last week that Bitcoin didn’t fully follow the movements of the US stocks; at least the volatility was inconsistent. It’s possible that while US stocks fell significantly, Bitcoin only dropped slightly. A major reason for this is that many American institutions sold off Bitcoin during the last downturn, leading to a significant concentration of chips. We returned to a relatively dispersed state, so the correlation began to decline, but the trends remain consistent; it’s just that the intensity of volatility is not so matched.

In the third phase, Bitcoin is on an independent trend. In simple terms, due to Trump threatening Powell with not lowering interest rates, it raises doubts about the Fed's independence. This may sound trivial but has far-reaching implications, directly leading to the recent rapid weakening of the dollar. During the same period, America's staunch allies, Japan and the UK, began off-market selling of US bonds for their own interests, leading the US into a bearish phase for stocks, bonds, and currencies. Therefore, for American investors, US investment products currently lack significant investment value. As a result, this accelerated the inflow of funds into non-US investment products (since Trump took office and pursued unilateralism, there has been a continuous inflow of hedging funds into gold, further propelled by trade wars and the weakening dollar, pushing funds into gold for several months). The main funds likely went into gold and yen, but considering asset allocation, some funds have also flowed into Bitcoin. After all, as chips become dispersed, the hedging properties increase significantly, and diversified investment is also a demand. This explains why Bitcoin has either been stagnant or has seen gradual daily increases over the past ten days, as liquidity has been continuously entering the crypto market.

Finally, let’s discuss what happened this morning: Based on my previous analysis, Bitcoin has risen by 10,000 points in the last ten days, primarily due to the stock, bond, and currency market being shorted, leading to some fund inflows. Similarly, if we want to see a price drop, we will inevitably need the US stock, bond, and currency markets to rebound. Earlier today, around 5:50 AM, Trump made a speech, clarifying that he had no intention of forcing Powell to resign, just hoping he would lower interest rates sooner rather than later. In short, he was sending a signal of easing and telling everyone that the Fed still maintains its independence. Once he finished speaking, US stocks immediately rose post-market, and the dollar began to strengthen, causing corresponding risk assets like the yen and gold to pull back. Anyone paying attention to real-time data could see these changes. At this point, interestingly, since Bitcoin, which has certain hedging properties, absorbed a wave of liquidity, it should theoretically follow the yen and gold downwards after the strengthening of the US stocks and dollar. However, instead, it surged nearly 3,000 points immediately after Trump’s speech.

Finally, it’s my turn to criticize. Friends who know me understand that I'm not usually a conspiracy theorist because, as a former finance professional, I know that the big players occasionally intervene, but they don’t do it every day. Classifying all price movements as the work of the big players is often due to a lack of analytical ability and inability to find reasonable explanations. But I have to say, this wave is just ridiculous. At 5:50 AM Beijing time, which is 5:50 PM in the US, an Asian company is off work while the US companies have just finished work. Do you dare to pull this? You really aren’t afraid of being exposed, are you? Moreover, in just 3 minutes, $1.26 billion was bought. This is not the kind of rhythm where off-market hedging funds gradually enter the market through various channels like ETFs, but rather a blatant display of having $1.26 billion USDT ready to be deployed at any moment. Besides Asian and American institutions that are either off work or just finishing up, who else could have this kind of financial backing besides one of the top five exchanges or Tether? Is this not shameless? After the dollar strengthened, it was inevitable that the hedging funds that entered earlier would gradually withdraw. Bitcoin would also see price corrections as more funds enter. Just because this wave of increase didn’t reach the price level you wanted, you released favorable information about the dollar and impatiently pulled it up to over 93,000, forcing a large number of retail short positions to get liquidated. Do you have any shame? Then, using the liquidity brought by today’s fluctuations to stabilize the price, you quietly sold off hundreds of contracts every fifteen minutes, effectively liquidating a large number of short positions at almost zero capital cost. Honestly, you top exchanges have made quite a bit already. For the sake of skirting the edges with low interest rates and high fees, you’ve had enough to eat every year, cutting retail investors for profit, destroying the normal development of the market. Isn’t that too ugly of a display?