Preface: If you still don't understand why the trend of the cryptocurrency market follows the US stock market, you can just leave it, because it means you don't have any basic financial knowledge and are still immersed in a simple game with the banker. You must understand that the banker will indeed manipulate the market to harvest, but it doesn't do this every day. At the same time, it also needs to cooperate with the news to harvest, because this is the lowest cost. I believe that friends who have worked in finance should understand what I mean. The best recent example is the time when Trump spoke about the details of the tariff landing in the early morning of the 4th: the US stock market closed at 4 o'clock, and Trump began to speak at 4:03. The first three sentences were opening nonsense, but at this time point, the big cake instantly exploded from 865 to 885. You must know that this explosion has nothing to do with the US stock market, because it just closed, and it has nothing to do with the news, because Trump only said three nonsense sentences, purely to quickly explode a large number of short orders before Trump spoke those negative information (tariffs), to clear the market for the next plunge. This is indeed a banker's method, but if you think that the usual ups and downs are all manipulated by the banker, then I can only say that the wise see wisdom.

Back to the topic, I think there are three reasons why the probability of a rebound in US stocks next week is relatively high.

1: The technical rebound demand of the US stock market itself. Secondly, we must understand that there is an essential difference between stocks and coins. To put it bluntly, the value of coins is really mainly based on consensus, but stocks are different. There are many ways to measure their value, whether from corporate assets or price-earnings ratios and other calculation methods (different methods apply to different types of companies). In other words, no matter how much it falls, there is a real bottom. To give an extreme example, a company has an annual profit of 10 million, but now its market value has fallen to only 30 million. Even if the overall market is still in panic, do you really think the price of this company is still high? In 2025, the US stock market continued to fall, and in fact, a lot of bubbles have been removed. Even if it is not the bottom now, even if it will continue to fall, I personally think that the continued decline is limited, and it is approaching a reasonable bottom. Unless there is a bigger black swan in the near future, but I really can't think of a bigger black swan in the near future except for this tariff trade war. Suddenly there is a third world war and the war spreads to the US mainland or aliens come?

2: The Fed increases the possibility of cutting interest rates. The purpose of Trump's tariff trade war is to bring manufacturing back to the United States, but the pain it brings is inflation. So what is the painkiller? The Fed will cooperate with the interest rate cut. Trump has always hoped and even publicly called on the Fed to cut interest rates. I believe that many people watched the Fed's speech at around 11 o'clock on Friday night, but they may not understand it. The original words are still on hold and choose to wait and see. But don't forget that before this sentence, it also said that the Fed will find a way to maintain inflation stability. The meaning of this sentence is actually loosening up, and there is a possibility of increasing interest rate cuts. If the interest rate is really cut, it will be a good thing for the current US stock market.

3: Trump’s tariff policy itself. If the tariff policy is a kind of surgery to heal the wound, it is still bearable. Then the unbearable part is that you will be stabbed in the back during the surgery. This stab is the tariff countermeasures of other countries. Of course, it is mainly concentrated on several large economies. The reaction of some small countries is not painful, after all, the trade volume with the United States is small. In Trump’s expectation, it should be Japan, South Korea, and Europe, which dare not fight back substantially. Whether it is their dependence on the United States itself or the suppression of other means of the United States’ comprehensive strength, it is still easy to hit their own "son". China will have countermeasures, but the intensity should be within a controllable range. After all, it was like this during his last term. The trade war started during his last term. The intensity at that time was almost like he hit us with one punch, and we hit back half a punch. After all, our imports from the United States are mainly concentrated in some high-tech fields, and there is really no way to cut them off all at once. After all, European allies followed the United States to attack us, and there is no reasonable alternative in the European market. But now is different from the past. In the past seven or eight years, with our technological breakthroughs in areas such as chips and the US's slapping of Europe, the above combination has led to the fact that products such as chips, civil aircraft, and medical devices, which account for the majority of our imports from the United States, can all be replaced by suppliers rising in Europe and China, not to mention military deterrence. It is no longer the time of the South China Sea confrontation in 2016, so this time our counterattack is unprecedented, a completely equal and tough counterattack, which is beyond Trump's expectations, as can be seen from his defense breakdown on social media. More importantly, China took the lead in firing the first shot of counterattack, and it is even harder to say whether there will be any restlessness later. Secondly, the inflation caused by tariffs affects more people in the middle and lower classes, so the impact of the tariff counterattack on some large and especially high-tech companies will be greater. Of course, the resulting layoffs will also be postponed to ordinary people. You must know that Trump's base itself is not the elite economy, but the middle and lower stages, but the current situation is that both camps have been offended, the US stock market has plummeted, inflation, and those who pay attention to the news should have seen that large-scale protests and marches have begun in various places since the 5th. How long do you think Trump can last?Finally, if you know Trump’s political style well enough, you will understand that he is a businessman, that is, everything can be negotiated. This can be seen from the first tariff increase on Canada in early March. After Canada broke out in resistance, the tariff was postponed and then the intensity of the tariff was reduced. At the same time, the tariffs are imposed on the world without distinction, but the implementation time is reserved for one week, which is also a means of pressure. Before this, if you come to me (in exchange for other benefits), I can consider lowering the tariffs on you. In other words, in Trump’s mind, this tariff policy itself has a psychological expectation of lowering. It’s just that now it has changed from the ideal of you begging me to the passive expectation of lowering expectations because I can’t bear the pressure. Therefore, as long as the tariffs are delayed or the intensity is reduced, it will still be a positive for US stocks.

The above is purely personal analysis, for your reference, not as a direct opening position suggestion. I just think there is a greater possibility of a rebound. Of course, it is not ruled out that Trump will stick to the end, but according to the current economic situation in the United States, I am afraid that he will not last more than three months before chaos.