十八年后又是一条好汉

Comex gold recently reached 3553, hitting a historic high. The market is almost fully pricing in the Federal Reserve's rate cut in September. I took a look at the bets on the on-chain casino: the probability of a 0.25% cut is 82%, the probability of a 0.5% cut is 4%, and the probability of no rate cut has decreased to 14%.

$AUCTION Recently discovered that this coin is a good candidate for swing trading, although the volatility isn't that great... 😂

Zhao Changpeng gave a speech at the University of Hong Kong, summarizing that he believes the way forward for Hong Kong in stablecoins is the Hong Kong dollar stablecoin, preferably the renminbi stablecoin, implying that there is little chance for Hong Kong to issue a US dollar stablecoin; for RWA tokens, it is recommended to first focus on financial assets, such as bonds, stocks, and ETFs, and not to think about tokenizing Hong Kong real estate RWA, as the liquidity is too poor and no one is buying; he believes it is difficult for Hong Kong to establish its own virtual currency exchanges due to a lack of liquidity and suggests collaborating with Binance; he thinks that DEX will occupy a larger market share in the future and recommends that Hong Kong leave space for DEX development in compliance design. Finally, he believes that AI + Web3 will have a trillion-dollar market in the future, with everyone having numerous AI assistants, leading to a large number of high-frequency, small-value payment needs, which traditional banks cannot handle and will require on-chain payments.

Morgan Stanley predicts that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice this year and four times next year, ultimately keeping the long-term interest rate of the US dollar in the range of 2.75-3%. If it is 3%, it will also maintain an interest rate advantage over the Renminbi for a long time, and the Renminbi is likely to stay below 2% for a long time.

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell finally eased up and turned 'dovish' on Friday night, saying that the rapidly rising employment risks in the market might push the Fed to cut interest rates in September. Because of this statement, US stocks and cryptocurrencies surged instantly on Friday night, with the price of ETH reaching a high of 4871, setting a new record.
I originally thought that a rate cut in September was a done deal with no suspense, but I just checked, and there is still a 20% chance that rates won't be cut in September, which is indeed a bit surprising.

Want to exchange currency? Feeling like I'm falling behind the market's gains?

I've been too busy these days to watch the market, and just checked: Ah, this... is really hard to evaluate 😂

Reuters reports that the Chinese government has come to a consensus and is considering the launch of a yuan-backed stablecoin to promote the use of global currencies. Domestic deployment, with trials in Hong Kong (and possibly Shanghai), details may be announced in the coming weeks. This round of stablecoins is being spearheaded by the United States, with Japan and South Korea also accelerating their layouts, and the Chinese government hopes to keep up and not fall behind.
Standard Chartered Bank predicts that the scale of stablecoins will grow 6-7 times in the next three years, but I feel that is overly optimistic.

The total amount of U.S. national debt has surpassed $37 trillion, which is an astronomical figure, and the annual interest payment is $1.5 trillion, making repayment a century-old dilemma.
U.S. tariff revenue has skyrocketed, reaching $140 billion by August this year, while the previous year's total tariff revenue was only in the range of $60-70 billion. Trump's actions are starting to show results, but even with an annual tariff revenue of $300 billion, it is a drop in the bucket compared to the interest on U.S. debt. The annual interest payment is $1.5 trillion, and even if interest rates are lowered, it will still be $1 trillion.

Trump once again urged Powell to cut interest rates, claiming that nominating Powell during his first term was a mistake. In fact, he doesn't need to urge now, as the Fed is almost certain to cut rates in September, and the market has already begun to expect a cut of more than 0.25%, possibly 0.5%. Bessenet has publicly stated that he feels optimistic about this. The on-chain betting regarding the Fed in September shows an 80% probability of a 0.25% cut. Interestingly, the probability of a 0.5% cut has been rising recently and has reached 7%.

The account is up nine points today... Awesome!

The United States announced last night that the CPI for July was 2.7% year-on-year and +0.2% month-on-month, which is lower than market expectations. This has increased the probability of an interest rate cut in September. Currently, the on-chain betting for a 0.25% rate cut has reached 81%, with a 15% probability for no cut, and a 4% probability for a 0.5% cut.
After the data was released, the cryptocurrency market surged, with ETH breaking through $4,400, just 10% away from its all-time high. Recently, several institutions have been buying ETH, with daily inflows exceeding $1 billion continuously, leading to a strong price increase.

The United States has initiated anti-dumping and countervailing investigations on crystalline silicon photovoltaic cells imported from India, Indonesia, and Laos. Uh, this is actually aimed at Chinese companies, as many Chinese photovoltaic manufacturers had previously shifted their production capacity to Indonesia and Laos to evade tariffs; otherwise, these two countries would not have been subjected to the U.S. dual investigations. It has been proven that engaging in transshipment trade or relocating production capacity is ineffective; the Trump administration will manually patch things up to target you. Those who opened factories in Mexico a few years ago also faced severe consequences. Those who try to be clever are most afraid of encountering unpredictable decision-makers who don’t follow the rules.
Taking a leave to go out and play on the weekend, and today I see my investments dropped by 6 points. For me, I still have to trade in waves; I can’t just wait... I need to quickly finish my work and trade in waves.

Trump approved the investment of America's 401k funds in virtual currency ETFs. This 401k fund is considered part of the U.S. social security fund, similar to corporate pensions. Stimulated by this news, the cryptocurrency market surged this weekend. During this wave, Bitcoin didn't rise much, but Ethereum surged significantly, with ETH jumping from 3600 to 4300. The probability of on-chain betting for ETH reaching its historical high (4800+) this year soared to 76%.

Frog Fun, 18 times?! Is the system bugged?

The result of the US-EU tariff negotiations is that the US will impose a 15% tariff, which the EU has agreed to. The EU will also increase its investment in the US by $600 billion and purchase $750 billion in energy assets. Previously, the EU had a very tough stance, but it seems they have softened. The results of Japan's negotiations are quite similar; Japan accepts the US's 15% tariff increase and will also increase its investment in the US by $550 billion. So Trump's erratic tactics are still effective; by making a fuss, benefits are immediately realized. Some things you won't get unless you fight for them, and that's how managing a large country works.
Today, there was a general rise, but the intensity was generally not strong... So let's wait a little longer.

The United States reported an increase of 73,000 non-farm jobs in July, significantly lower than the market expectation of 110,000. More seriously, the previously reported 147,000 jobs for June was revised down to 14,000, and May's 144,000 was revised down to 19,000, resulting in a total revision of 258,000 jobs lost over two months. The reason for such a significant revision, according to the Bureau of Statistics, is due to the response rate of the surveys and seasonal adjustment factors. Trump could not accept this and fired the head of the Bureau of Statistics, accusing him of manipulating data for political purposes. U.S. stocks fell by 1-2% on Friday night, but the worsening economic data increased the probability of a rate cut in September from 45% to 75%.
#美联储利率决议

No updates on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, going for a short trip 😊
Hope to get a warehouse translation when I return😘

I've been super busy these past two days, just logged in for a moment, lafufu made a mistake 🙇‍♂️

Went out to play for two days, today I'm back to working hard, checking my account while slacking off, it's stable, so I'm relieved, back to moving bricks and unloading cement🤔
Today I opened the big A and discovered an interesting story about the rivers and lakes, I can only say that Mr. Jin Yong understands Shaolin Temple 😂

Lafufu, if you keep this up, don't blame me for going all in to short you, okay?
Are you trying to force me, this swing trader, to become a bear?