李磊-

The last interest rate cut was in September 2024, when the cryptocurrency market experienced a nice rally. From the information released by the Federal Reserve and market predictions, it is expected that there will be at least two rate cuts this year. The market generally believes that the specific timing of the cuts will be in September and November, but the actions of the U.S. are often unpredictable, and when the market believes this, the actual situation is usually not as expected.

Currently, there has not been a rate cut yet, and Powell stated that it is influenced by Trump's 'water closing' policy, while Trump previously indicated that it was because there was no rate cut that he initiated the 'water closing'. Both sides are shifting blame, trying to take credit for good news while distancing themselves from bad news.

Therefore, there is no need to overly focus on the exact timing of the rate cuts; as long as it is certain that there will be a rate cut, the overall upward trend is almost guaranteed.

The first day of July seems to bring a different atmosphere, destined to be extraordinary.

The recent fluctuations have truly tested our mindset; amid the ups and downs, our emotions have taken a roller coaster ride.

As evening approaches, a crucial meeting is set to begin at nine thirty. All market participants are paying attention to whether this meeting can break through the current range and resolve the long-standing deadlock. The answer will soon be revealed; let us wait and see!#大而美法案 #美国加征关税 #香港加密概念股 #BTC #ETH

BTC Spot ETF Purchasing Power Plummets, Price Stability Has Other Reasons

Recently, the market performance of BTC spot ETFs has garnered significant attention. Data shows that in the past three months, its purchasing power has drastically decreased compared to the end of 2024 to the beginning of 2025, with the average value even falling below half of the previous level.

During the period from the end of 2024 to the beginning of 2025, the purchasing volume of BTC spot ETFs was exceptionally strong, with December 2024 seeing a buying volume of 51,500 BTC, as a large influx of capital drove the price of Bitcoin upward. At that time, institutional investors were actively positioning themselves, and retail investors were also influenced by market sentiment to participate, resulting in a flourishing market.

However, the market situation has significantly changed now. Although the current Bitcoin price remains at a relatively good level, the underlying support factors are entirely different. The sharp decline in purchasing power indicates a weakening of the core driving force behind price increases. The reason why the price can still remain stable is primarily due to the decreased number of selling investors. Holders in the market may be optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term value or concerned about current market uncertainties, choosing to continue holding, which has reduced selling behavior, thereby keeping the supply in the market relatively stable and allowing prices to be maintained.

7.1 Tuesday Market Brief: Price Drop Due to News, Still Bullish Outlook

This morning, affected by events related to Trump and Musk, the market experienced a downturn, but neither the high nor low points broke through the range, maintaining an overall oscillating pattern.

The rebound short strategy mentioned earlier perfectly matched the impact of this event, achieving unexpectedly substantial gains.

After a single bullish weekly candle, the market entered a correction phase, with limited adjustment space, and the signal for a trend reversal has not yet been clarified. In the afternoon, we will continue to respond to the oscillation within the range.

Afternoon Trading Suggestions

- Bitcoin: Long near 106500-106800, target 108500
- Ethereum: Long near 2450, target 2580#大而美法案 #香港加密概念股 #香港加密概念股 #BTC #ETH

The current large pancake is once again under pressure near the 109,000 mark, and although it has broken through last week's high, significant pressure exists above. The support at the 107,000 mark is strong, and in the short term, it is highly likely to maintain a wide oscillation range between 109,000 and 107,000, allowing for opportunities to sell high and buy low. Due to the large volatility, there is space for precise entry and exit points for both long and short positions.

During the day, attention should be paid to the gains and losses of the range's high and low points. A breakthrough may lead to a continuation of the trend, and operations should be flexibly adjusted based on small-scale patterns; the wave strategy should still focus on entering at lower points.

In terms of targets, the large pancake continues to look towards the vicinity of 109,000, while Ethereum looks towards the vicinity of 2,550. All operations must be based on real market conditions. #香港加密概念股 #下一任美联储主席人选 #美国加征关税 #BTC走势分析 #ETH

The successful players in the market have all walked the thorny path. They have experienced the pain of liquidation, faced countless doubts and confusion, yet they have never stopped. Every fall is an opportunity for growth; when they rise again, they are more determined and steady than ever.

The achievements of experts do not rely on luck, but on strict discipline and self-control. They do not easily predict market directions, but steadfastly adhere to their own plans and strategies. When the market fluctuates wildly and others panic, they remain calm and make decisive decisions.

For experts, technical operations are far from the core; inner resilience and composure are the keys. They enter the market quietly and leave without a trace, fully knowing that the market never rewards impulsiveness. Only with time and patience can true success be accumulated. #美国加征关税 #美国5月核心PCE物价指数 #香港加密概念股 #BTC #ETH

Market Analysis and Trading Ideas

The current market shows that both rises and falls are accompanied by pullbacks and rebounds, lacking an absolute one-sided trend. It is difficult to force a one-sided market, and capturing the pullback opportunities during rebounds remains the main idea for the future.

From a 4H perspective:

- Bitcoin has repeatedly tested support near the middle band of the Bollinger Bands but has failed to form an effective rebound, and the strength of support continues to weaken.
- The overall market remains weak, with both short-term and trend showing a slightly weak oscillation pattern. If subsequent highs are hard to break and the middle band is lost, the adjustment range may deepen.

Trading Suggestions:

- Bitcoin: Short at 108000-108300, target at 107000.
- Ethereum: Short directly at 2460, target at 2380-2420. #美国加征关税 #香港加密概念股 #美国5月核心PCE物价指数 #BTC #ETH

Today's panic index is 68, and the market is still in a state of greed. Although Bitcoin has risen to an all-time high of $111,000, it has not shown typical signs of market overheating. The current spot trading volume is only $7.7 billion, which is low and far below the peak levels of previous bull market cycles.

From a macroeconomic perspective, the current situation is gradually favorable for the digital asset market. The legal regulations that are beneficial for cryptocurrencies are continuously improving, and expectations of interest rate cuts are providing significant support for the market. Looking back at the last bull market, after the S&P 500 reached an all-time high, cryptocurrencies experienced several months of consolidation before a strong breakout. Now that the S&P has reached a new high again, it is expected that after a period of consolidation, cryptocurrencies will also enter a strong breakout phase. Therefore, investors just need to hold onto their spot assets and wait for the right opportunity.

Recently, the market for Bitcoin has seen intense bullish and bearish struggles, with unclear price direction and continued sideways consolidation.

From a daily chart perspective, the price is at the end of a triangular consolidation, constantly testing, with upward pressure and downward support continuously narrowing. The current market is in a critical period of accumulation, and the bullish and bearish momentum has not yet fully released.

It is expected that today will continue the upward correction trend after Wave C, and when the correction ends, a trending market is anticipated. It is recommended that everyone remain patient and wait for the market to provide clear signals before making decisions. #下一任美联储主席人选 #美国加征关税 #美国5月核心PCE物价指数 #BTC #ETH

On June 26, the Hong Kong government officially released the "Digital Asset Development Policy Declaration 2.0", further clarifying Hong Kong's positioning as an innovation center in the global digital asset field, with regulated stablecoins being a key component. At the same time, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) is actively constructing a regulatory framework for regulated stablecoins (fiat-referenced stablecoins) aimed at ensuring financial stability, protecting user interests, and promoting the healthy development of the virtual asset ecosystem, which presents new challenges and opportunities for FRS issuers.

SlowMist, as a leading global blockchain threat intelligence company, has served numerous leading or well-known projects globally through "integrated security solutions tailored from threat detection to threat defense." With extensive expertise in smart contract security audits, blockchain application security audits, cryptocurrency anti-money laundering/anti-terrorism financing solutions, and emergency incident response, it is ready to provide comprehensive security audit services for FRS issuers to help them meet Hong Kong regulatory requirements and achieve safe and compliant development.#美国加征关税 #美国5月核心PCE物价指数 #香港加密概念股 #BTC #ETH

In the current cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin is trapped in a small range of fluctuations:

- Bulls and bears are locked in a tug-of-war in a limited space, with price fluctuations continuing to narrow, and neither upward nor downward movements have formed effective breakthroughs.

Technical indicators show:

- The Bollinger Bands on the four-hour chart are significantly narrowing, which is usually a precursor to intense volatility.

Narrow fluctuations combined with the four-hour contraction harbor both risks and opportunities—once the balance is broken, the market may experience rapid and significant fluctuations.#美国加征关税 #美国5月核心PCE物价指数 #香港加密概念股 #BTC #ETH

Weekend market performance is flat:

- No obvious news-driven momentum, poor liquidity, and weak volume.
- BTC has been oscillating around the $108,000 resistance level for four days.
- If the narrow fluctuations continue over the weekend, there is a high probability that a clear direction will be needed next week.
- If the breakout above $108,000 fails, it may again test the $98,000-$100,000 support range.
- Strategy suggestion: whether long-term or short-term, focus mainly on short positions.

Looking back at yesterday's midday strategy, the Bitcoin was positioned short around 108,000, successfully earning about 1,600 points of profit. The second Bitcoin was positioned short near 2,450, also successfully achieving around 70 points of space. #下一任美联储主席人选 #美国加征关税 #美国5月核心PCE物价指数 #BTC #ETH

Market Analysis: US Stocks Approach Historical Highs, Key Tests Ahead

On June 27, news broke that the S&P 500 index is currently nearing historical highs. However, as the earnings season approaches, the foundations of this rally are facing significant tests.

In terms of earnings expectations, due to the continued impact of tariff resistance, Wall Street expects the S&P 500 index components to see only a 2.8% year-on-year growth in profits for the second quarter, which could mark the smallest increase in two years. Data from Yardeni Research shows that among the 11 sectors, only 6 are expected to achieve profit growth, the fewest since the first quarter of 2023.

Market concerns are becoming evident: observers point out that the current index valuations are too high, and a surge in profits or significant interest rate cuts are needed to support existing levels. Technical analysts also believe that without more sectors joining the upward trend, the index could decline in the coming months. Sarah Hunt, Chief Market Strategist at Alpine Woods Capital Investors, candidly stated: "There are risks in the stock market rebound, and one of the biggest issues is whether the deterioration in some sectors will surpass the growth momentum in others."

Impact on the Cryptocurrency Market

- If US stocks weaken and the Federal Reserve signals easing measures such as interest rate cuts, it may boost cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH.
- If risk sentiment cools significantly (with US stocks and the cryptocurrency market both under pressure), cryptocurrencies may also decline in the short term. #加密市场回调 #美国5月核心PCE物价指数 #上市公司山寨币财库 #BTC #ETH

Will PCE inflation data surge? Not necessarily!

Current market expectations are that PCE will rise to 2.3% and core PCE to 2.8%, which seems bearish. But this is just the baseline expectation; if the data meets this level, it will have little impact on cryptocurrency prices; anything above this would be bearish, while below 2.3% and 2.8% would be bullish.

Tariffs usually push inflation higher, but past CPI and PCE data have often fallen short of expectations. Even Powell hinted during his speech that the availability of government data is poor. Therefore, this data is likely to meet expectations or even fall below them, with a possibility of data optimization.

The real variable will be on July 8, when the tariff deadline is postponed, and new tariffs are about to be imposed. Trump will also announce the specific tariff amounts. This move may lead to a pullback in the stock market after the initial bullishness fades, and the cryptocurrency market is likely to be affected as well. In this rapidly changing situation, it might be better to let the dust settle for a while and patiently wait for the market to provide the final answer. #加密市场回调 #香港加密概念股 #美国5月核心PCE物价指数 #BTC #ETH

The 24-hour long-short ratio shows that short positions are dominant, but the market continues to struggle to go down—clearly controlled by the market makers.

Currently, the focus is on shorting the market.

Reminder to clients with small positions: be sure to have a good defense when placing orders, and beware of upward spikes. #加密市场回调 #香港加密概念股 #美国5月核心PCE物价指数 #BTC #ETH

June 27 BTC/ETH Market Outlook Overview

Market Environment

As the weekend approaches, market liquidity is expected to significantly weaken, coupled with a lack of positive support from ETFs, caution is advised regarding volatility risks.

BTC Analysis

- The buying power is gradually weakening during the price uptrend, while selling pressure is increasing, alleviating the strong trend in smaller timeframes.
- Currently maintaining a range consolidation between 106400-108100, the short-term direction may change, and caution is needed for potential weekend volatility.
- Trading suggestion: Short near 108000-109500, with a stop-loss above 110000.

ETH Analysis

- Overall following BTC's trend, with no independent market behavior, but frequent trading by large holders causing significant price spikes.
- There is a need for a pullback in the ETH/BTC exchange rate on smaller timeframes, with the market leaning towards shorting on rebounds.
- Trading suggestion: Short near 2470-2500, with a stop-loss above 2530.

Additional Tips

- If the intraday trading does not reach a suitable entry point, a staggered approach can be employed for entry.
- ETH has many price spikes, requiring precise timing for the best entry position.

U.S. stock market opened with a positive trend. The Dow Jones Industrial Average opened up 0.24%, the S&P 500 index rose 0.37%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index increased by 0.45%.

Chip stocks performed strongly, becoming a highlight of the market. Nvidia (NVDA.O) rose 1.07%, Micron Technology (MU.O) increased by 0.7%, and Micron Technology's quarterly earnings forecast exceeded expectations, providing support for the stock price's rise.

However, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index slightly declined, and the performance of popular Chinese concept stocks showed divergence, with market uncertainty still persisting. #香港加密概念股 #上市公司山寨币财库 #下一任美联储主席人选 #BTC #ETH

Evening Market Analysis on June 25

The current market is experiencing intense long-short battles, with hourly charts showing a fluctuating upward trend. Although the daily chart has achieved three consecutive increases, the growth rate is gradually narrowing, presenting a high-level sideways trend.

Technical indicators show: the hourly MACD histogram is below the zero axis, with DIF and DEA diverging downwards, indicating a short-term bearish advantage; the daily MACD is above the zero axis, but the red bars are continuously shortening, and bullish momentum is clearly weakening.

Operational suggestion: Short in the range of 1073 - 1078 for Bitcoin, targeting 1060 and 1048; short at the 2450 line for Ether, targeting 2390 and 2280. #加密市场反弹 #鲍威尔半年度货币政策证词 #以色列伊朗冲突 #BTC #ETH

Let's review what old Bao said last night
In fact, there are three core messages:

1. The new policy on interest rates is hindering the interest rate cut process

He clearly stated that if it were not for the uncertainty brought by the new policy on interest rates, the Federal Reserve could have started cutting rates earlier. The current decision to pause rate cuts is largely waiting for the clarification of the new policy on interest rates.

2. Divergence in timing of rate cuts

Regarding the rate cut in July, the Federal Reserve maintains a relatively certain stance; however, whether to continue rate cuts in September holds a more open and flexible attitude. This difference in timing reflects that the Federal Reserve is adopting a gradual approach of "taking one step at a time."

3. Solid economic fundamentals

Old Bao particularly emphasized that the economy is showing enough resilience, with the job market remaining stable. This means that the current labor market does not urgently need to stimulate through rate cuts, allowing the Federal Reserve more room and time for policy adjustments. #加密市场反弹 #鲍威尔半年度货币政策证词 #以色列伊朗冲突 #BTC #ETH