Market Analysis: US Stocks Approach Historical Highs, Key Tests Ahead

On June 27, news broke that the S&P 500 index is currently nearing historical highs. However, as the earnings season approaches, the foundations of this rally are facing significant tests.

In terms of earnings expectations, due to the continued impact of tariff resistance, Wall Street expects the S&P 500 index components to see only a 2.8% year-on-year growth in profits for the second quarter, which could mark the smallest increase in two years. Data from Yardeni Research shows that among the 11 sectors, only 6 are expected to achieve profit growth, the fewest since the first quarter of 2023.

Market concerns are becoming evident: observers point out that the current index valuations are too high, and a surge in profits or significant interest rate cuts are needed to support existing levels. Technical analysts also believe that without more sectors joining the upward trend, the index could decline in the coming months. Sarah Hunt, Chief Market Strategist at Alpine Woods Capital Investors, candidly stated: "There are risks in the stock market rebound, and one of the biggest issues is whether the deterioration in some sectors will surpass the growth momentum in others."

Impact on the Cryptocurrency Market

- If US stocks weaken and the Federal Reserve signals easing measures such as interest rate cuts, it may boost cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH.

- If risk sentiment cools significantly (with US stocks and the cryptocurrency market both under pressure), cryptocurrencies may also decline in the short term. #加密市场回调 #美国5月核心PCE物价指数 #上市公司山寨币财库 #BTC #ETH