The Chinese market experienced a sudden drop today, following the overnight decline on Wall Street. However, the two do not seem to exhibit a clear negative correlation recently. Global investors are struggling to find direction, and there is a hint of unease in the air. 1. Today's decline has no obvious catalyst; it is more likely influenced by profit-taking factors. Cautious investors are now turning their attention to the series of earnings reports that Chinese companies (Xiaomi, Tencent, Meituan, etc.) are about to announce. This decline has two relevant backgrounds: · First, the global reciprocal tariffs are approaching on April 2nd. Theoretically, investors should be able to clearly understand the direction this week, as the policy meetings of the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of England provide signals. However, these central banks have indicated that tariffs have muddied the outlook, increasing the sense that the world will blindly enter April 2nd.
Last night, the world suddenly fell silent, sending chills down the spine.
On the second day after the Federal Reserve's decision, the world seems to have hit the pause button: - Most assets, including A-shares, U.S. stocks, gold, and Bitcoin, are gently declining; - The dollar index has rebounded for the second consecutive trading day. This trend is chilling: Firstly, whether it rises or falls is not important; the magnitude of the rise or fall is what matters. The Dow Jones index fell by 0.03%, the S&P 500 index dropped by 0.22%, the Nasdaq index declined by 0.33%, and even Bitcoin, which usually fluctuates wildly, only dropped by 1.5%—the sudden narrowing of volatility is usually a precursor to a significant directional choice. Secondly, the most noteworthy moment yesterday was at 20:30, when two important data points were released: the number of initial unemployment claims in the U.S. last week and the March Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index. Both data points were better than expected, but there was not much reaction from gold and the dollar after the data was released. Afterward, U.S. stocks opened with a significant drop, indicating that the market has not yet returned to an environment where 'good news is good news'.
Bitcoin's daily chart shows a breakthrough of the middle track and resistance at EMA200, with the opening today encountering resistance around the 30-day moving average and undergoing a pullback adjustment. The Bollinger Bands are in a contracted and flat state, with short-term moving averages showing signs of turning. The MACD fast and slow lines have crossed and are running upwards, with the volume bars increasing. The KDJ is showing signs of turning down near the 100 level, and the VR indicator is consolidating around the 65 level.
On the 4-hour chart, the candlesticks show small bullish candles that have gradually risen before breaking through the upper band. The morning session closed with a bearish candle, and the market began a slight pullback adjustment, returning to within the Bollinger Bands. The Bollinger Bands are in an expanding state, with short-term moving averages turning upwards. The MACD fast and slow lines have crossed upwards, breaking through the zero line, with volume bars decreasing and the KDJ turning downwards. The VR indicator is consolidating around the 150 level. Overall, this wave of market rebound is temporarily encountering resistance below 88000. If it can stabilize above 88000, the probability of continued bullish momentum will be greater. In the short term, first focus on the resistance below the previous high, followed by the resistance below 89000. For support, first pay attention to the area around 84000, and then the area above 82000. Although the rebound appears strong, it is still too early to say that a complete reversal has occurred, and further observation is needed.
Specific operations can refer to
Bitcoin near 85000, with a light position to look at the 88600 area.
Trading Principle One: Do not place trades after a stop loss; don't be afraid of missing out. A stop loss is meant to help you control risk; a temporary stop loss indicates that your thinking has gone wrong. Re-entering the market will only confuse your thoughts further. If you harbor a sense of luck after a stop loss, you may not realize that the market has already broken through or entered a new trend, so don’t rush to re-enter after a stop loss.
Trading Principle Two: Blindly expanding after reaching your expectations, having great confidence in trends and movements, always thinking about capturing both long and short trades in intraday trading. What you don’t realize is that you have developed a habit of frequent trading during this process and have not made rational judgments about the trends.
Trading Principle Three: Not planning thoughts for intraday trading, drifting daily in choosing directions. A slight increase means a bullish market, and a slight decrease means a bearish market. Following the market direction is a clear sign of retail trader mentality. Both rises and falls exist, but thoughts remain unchanged!
Trading Principle Four: Frequently entering positions without stop losses, leading to situations of holding on or locking positions. This trading style is a typical retail trader mindset. In leveraged trading, a stop loss is your only way to correct your style and direction. Making mistakes is normal, but failing to clearly recognize your mistakes is the biggest mistake. #美国加征关税
On Tuesday, Bitcoin continues to look for a rebound and breakout!
Yesterday, I clearly communicated to everyone that the key support to watch at the bottom is the 82000 area, and I provided a trading idea for the 82600 area. The first target is 84600, which has accurately reached and secured a 2000-point range. I believe those who followed along have gained something!
Looking at the four-hour chart, after the market has been in continuous fluctuations and corrections, a small rebound has occurred at the midnight point. However, the bulls have not formed a sustained breakout and instead faced pressure and underwent a pullback correction. It can be seen that the main pressure is still concentrated around 85000, while support is near 82000. However, from the perspective of momentum, both the bulls and bears have weak continuation strength. During the day, the white plate's movement is likely to remain volatile, so we still maintain a strategy of capturing both sides to profit!
Specific operations can refer to
Bitcoin 82600-83000 area directly for a buy, bullish on the 85000-86800 area. If there is no continuation at the upper level, you can directly short once for a thousand-point pullback!
Old Feng's tours are traceable, with intraday hints of box fluctuations, consistently holding long positions within the range. This is the rhythm and method of application; practice makes perfect, and this is the mindset.
First order: Long from 82700 to 83700, gaining 1000 points. Second order: Long from 82600 to 83600, gaining 1000 points.
In the face of trends, everyone is equal. If you can't see the trend, that's your problem. In the market, there's only steady progress; there is absolutely no shortcut to sudden success. Once Old Feng hints to exit, the market drops. Ask yourself, how many people online can see that today is a box fluctuation? Selling high and buying low is the rhythm, and guarding the lows while looking for highs is even more of a trend! $BTC
Monday Bitcoin Market Analysis $BTC The market over the weekend was relatively slow, fluctuating within a narrow range and undergoing minor corrections. However, after a rapid rebound to the 85000 area last night, the bulls did not continue, and instead, the price fluctuated downward, reaching a low of around 82000 in the early morning before rebounding and correcting!
Currently, looking at the four-hour chart, the market experienced a washout action in the early morning and is now rebounding to test the middle track and short-term moving averages. The Bollinger Bands are in a contracted state, and the short-term moving averages are also operating around the middle track. The MACD fast and slow lines have turned down near the 0 axis, showing signs of a reversal, while the KDJ is testing upward. Overall, the market is facing resistance near the previous high, which is also a suppression from the daily middle track. Therefore, in the short term, we should first pay attention to this area. If it breaks through, we need to watch for resistance below 87000 and also focus on the support situation near 82000.
For specific operations, you can refer to
Bitcoin 82600-800 area directly buy, look at the 84600-86800 area. If the upper price does not continue after reaching, you can short once to see a retracement correction! Note that all positions must be handled with caution.
【No tricks, just practical experience!】 $BTC Near the large pancake 81300, directly enter the market with a light short position, reserve a place for adding positions, first target 78500, second target look at 76000, enter quickly.
If you follow the instructions, you will definitely gain rewards; the bigger the waves, the more valuable the fish.
Can the rebound continue within the day on Tuesday? $BTC
Yesterday, after the big cake market rebounded to the 84000 area, the bulls did not form a sustained breakthrough but instead continued to weaken and decline, until this morning when the market's lowest point dropped to around 76500, stopping the decline and showing a rebound. The current market is running around 79300.
At present, it seems that after a strong decline, the bears have paused, and the market has clearly shown a rebound effect, but the strength is not very strong, indicating that the overall weak trend still exists. If the market cannot break through and stabilize above 81000 during the day, there is a possibility of further decline. Therefore, in terms of operation, it is not recommended to blindly chase the rise; it is better to focus on short positions!
Specific operations can refer to
Short positions with light holdings in the 79600-80200 area, reserving an opportunity for a supplementary position, with targets looking at the lower range of 77500-76000.
U.S. stocks opened lower in the evening, and the price of the currency has fallen again to around 80400. At this position, it is not advisable to blindly chase short positions. You can take a small position directly around 80400, leaving room for one more purchase, looking up to around 83000! $BTC
A sharp drop in the early Monday session is not a good sign. Can the European session continue? $BTC
Over the weekend, the Bitcoin market remained in a narrow range of fluctuations, with not much volatility. However, after rebounding around 86500 yesterday, the bulls did not continue the upward movement, instead, the price fluctuated downwards. In the early session, the price hit a low around 80000 before stopping the decline and rebounding. The current market is fluctuating around 82200.
Although the orders provided to everyone last night were unfortunately swept away in the morning, I have always reminded to keep positions light. I believe that this situation is not a big deal, and subsequent operations will certainly help my fans recover losses!
From a technical structure perspective on the four-hour chart, the current market has shown a three-wave decline. The downward trend has not yet completed, and the downward trend of the Bollinger Bands remains quite strong. In the short term, the price has repeatedly faced resistance in the 84000 area, indicating that bullish sentiment is weak, and there is a possibility of a further pullback to lower support. Therefore, it is not recommended to blindly chase the price upwards; the focus in the short term should be on shorting rebounds, with light positions as a supplement!
Specific operation suggestions can refer to the following two positions:
Short lightly in the 82500-83000 area, and if there is no continuation of downward movement in the 80000-79500 area, just take the profit!
A week of silence is about to end. Looking back at this week's market and the trading ideas shared with everyone daily, I'm sure you all have witnessed it. Although there weren't many trades, we were able to make precise profits daily, achieving a 100% win rate. I wonder how many friends have followed in Lao Bai's footsteps and benefited from the content?
Monday: short from 93000 to 89200, gaining 3800 points
Tuesday: short from 85000 to 81200, gaining 3800 points
Wednesday: short from 90000 to 88100, gaining 1900 points
Thursday: short from 90600 to 88400, gaining 2200 points
Friday: short from 90000 to 88600, gaining 1400 points
In trading, at any time, if the direction is wrong, all efforts will be in vain. Therefore, if you can't grasp the market yourself, it's essential to follow the right people to achieve gains!
How to respond to non-farm payrolls on Friday night? $BTC
Yesterday evening's analysis was also very thorough, stating that after the rebound in the US market, we should continue to look for downward trends, and provided a strategy to short Bitcoin at 90600 with a light position, aiming for below 87800. The market's movements were very much in line with our expected targets, accurately hitting our profit-taking level.
Note: The trades I provide are all meant to be light positions, leaving room for additional purchases. Friends who strictly follow this can easily achieve a profit margin of 2000+!
Market analysis: Looking at the daily chart of Bitcoin, after yesterday's close with a doji candle, the market opened this morning with a rebound testing the middle track area but did not continue upwards, instead facing resistance and falling back to the MA200 area where it received support and rebounded. Currently, the K-line has a lower shadow testing the 7-day moving average. The Bollinger Bands continue to maintain a narrowing and flat trend, and the short-term moving averages are turning upwards. The MACD fast and slow lines are crossing upwards at a low position with slightly increasing volume, and the KDJ is showing signs of turning down near the 80 value while the VR indicator is consolidating near the 70 value.
Looking at the 4-hour chart, after the morning's plunge that closed with a large bearish candle, the K-line subsequently rose above the 60-day moving average. Currently, the market is above the middle track and facing resistance from the 7-day moving average. The Bollinger Bands show signs of narrowing and moving upwards, while the short-term moving averages are turning downwards. The MACD fast and slow lines are crossing downwards above the 0-axis with decreasing volume, and the KDJ is turning upwards while the VR indicator is consolidating near the 60 value.
Overall, after the sharp decline, the market quickly recovered most of the losses. However, the resistance at the daily chart's middle track and the 30-day moving average is the key area to focus on today. The 4-hour K-line has formed a fluctuating triangle pattern, and we should pay attention to the breakout of the upper and lower trendlines in the short term. With news expected to land tonight, it is anticipated that there will be considerable washout actions, so we should approach short-term trades cautiously.
Specific operational suggestions can reference a light short position near Bitcoin 90000, looking for a space of 1000-1600 points. After failing to extend below, we can consider entering again!
3.6 Evening Market Analysis $BTC Tip: Yesterday evening, we suggested shorting Bitcoin near 90,000 with a target of around 87,000. The market's lowest point came to about 87,600. Although we were just a step away from our target, our short position still achieved a perfect exit with a profit margin of 2,000 points!
Bitcoin Market Analysis:
From the daily chart of Bitcoin, it closed with another bullish candlestick yesterday. After the market opened, there was a significant rise testing the middle band area. The Bollinger Bands are starting to narrow, and the short-term moving averages have turned upwards to form support. The MACD fast and slow lines have crossed upwards, and the volume bars have turned red, while the KDJ extends upwards again, noting resistance near the 80-100 range. The VR indicator is consolidating around the 70 level. Looking at the 4-hour chart, after breaking through the middle band and the 60-day moving average, the price slowly rises to test the resistance around EMA200. The Bollinger Bands are flattening, and the short-term moving averages are operating around the middle band, forming a short-term support area below. The MACD fast and slow lines have crossed upwards, breaking through the zero axis with increasing volume, while the KDJ is encountering resistance near the 100 level and turning downwards. The VR indicator is consolidating around the 100 level.
Overall, the candlestick patterns are showing a W shape, indicating signs of a bullish recovery; however, the resistance above should not be underestimated. First, we need to pay attention to the previous high range, which is also the neckline, followed by the daily 60 moving average range. Tomorrow, there will be non-farm payrolls and a cryptocurrency summit. Given the impact of significant news, please remember not to chase highs and sell lows in the short term!
For specific operations, you can consider lightly shorting Bitcoin around 90,000-90,600, reserving space for a potential top-up, and we will look for opportunities below 87,800. Ethereum can be synchronized accordingly!
Can the market rebound on Wednesday continue? $BTC Last night I shorted and anticipated a downtrend, and the market dropped to the 81200 area. I have been consistently advising everyone to be bearish and short, and the short positions have perfectly reached our expected target, achieving a precise profit of 3800 points on Bitcoin. I believe those who followed along have gained significantly!
Regarding the current market, yesterday's daily candlestick formed a lower shadow bullish line and has re-established itself above the MA200 moving average. The Bollinger Bands remain open and effectively hold above the lower band, while the MACD fast and slow lines have turned upwards again with volume decreasing, and the KDJ is opening upwards, with the VR indicator consolidating around the 60 value. Looking at the 4-hour chart, after a significant bullish surge in the afternoon, it broke above the middle band, forming a series of bullish candles above the 30-day moving average. This indicates that the current market sentiment is still relatively strong, but since the market has broken the 90,000 level, we should not blindly go long. We can consider lightly shorting in the 90000-90600 area first and then look for levels around 87000-85500!
Is Bitcoin's rebound continuing to short on Tuesday night?
$BTC Yesterday's market repeatedly emphasized that the main focus should be on shorting for a downward adjustment, and in the evening, I also provided everyone with a shorting strategy at 93000, aiming for below 89500. The market's movements were quite in line with expectations, precisely reaching our target position, and we easily secured over 3000 points profit!
As for the current market situation, the large bearish adjustment last night brought the price back to its starting point. The intraday opening was blocked around the MA7 moving average, continuing to test the lower track. The Bollinger Bands are opening downwards, with short-term moving averages bending downwards. The MACD fast and slow lines are once again running downwards, and the volume bars are increasing. The KDJ is blocked and bending downwards, while the VR index is consolidating around the 50 value. On the 4-hour chart, the market has been declining continuously, breaking through the support of the moving average and mid-track, testing the lower track. The Bollinger Bands are slightly opening, with short-term moving averages bending upwards above. The MACD fast and slow lines are crossing downwards above the 0 axis, with the volume bars turning green and increasing. The KDJ is extending downwards, noting the support near the 0 value, and the VR index is consolidating around the 100 value. Overall, this wave of market influenced by news has defeated the technical players. Yesterday, I also reminded to treat such a market with caution, but the magnitude of the decline exceeded expectations. The short-term support to focus on is around the 4-hour lower track, while the key upper area is also around the top of the previous K, which is near the 30-day moving average.
For specific operations, you can refer to the area near 84500-85000 before the US market opens to short lightly once, reserving space for one additional buy-in. The target is still looking below 81500, and for the wave, it can be seen below 78000!