On the second day after the Federal Reserve's decision, the world seems to have hit the pause button:
- Most assets, including A-shares, U.S. stocks, gold, and Bitcoin, are gently declining;
- The dollar index has rebounded for the second consecutive trading day.
This trend is chilling:
Firstly, whether it rises or falls is not important; the magnitude of the rise or fall is what matters. The Dow Jones index fell by 0.03%, the S&P 500 index dropped by 0.22%, the Nasdaq index declined by 0.33%, and even Bitcoin, which usually fluctuates wildly, only dropped by 1.5%—the sudden narrowing of volatility is usually a precursor to a significant directional choice.
Secondly, the most noteworthy moment yesterday was at 20:30, when two important data points were released: the number of initial unemployment claims in the U.S. last week and the March Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index. Both data points were better than expected, but there was not much reaction from gold and the dollar after the data was released. Afterward, U.S. stocks opened with a significant drop, indicating that the market has not yet returned to an environment where 'good news is good news'.
Thirdly, the market is beginning to reassess the view of 'bearish on the dollar and U.S. stock market'. Once the assessment is complete, global markets will be affected. If the assessment result indicates 'bottoming out', then the Chinese market will face some pressure.
$10 trillion is on standby, ready to reshuffle the global market. According to Goldman Sachs data, global money market fund assets continue to grow (reaching $10.1 trillion, with the U.S. alone accounting for $8.4 trillion)—this is cash—large amounts of funds are waiting to find investment targets. Once new investment opportunities emerge, it will surely trigger an unprecedented market reconstruction.
Today is the 'Triple Witching Day' for U.S. stocks, with about $4.5 trillion in options expiring, forcing traders to collectively roll over existing positions or establish new ones.
Fourth, April 2 is the date when Trump's reciprocal tariffs take effect. Before and after this date, funds may show different directions and will be allocated in phases. Currently, we are in the 'defensive - probing - restructuring' three-stage 'probing stage finale'. The end of this stage may herald the onset of a new market trend.
After the market closes this Friday, a new trend and a new speculation theme are likely to emerge. The market is at an important strategic transformation point.
