The Chinese market experienced a sudden drop today, following the overnight decline on Wall Street. However, the two do not seem to exhibit a clear negative correlation recently. Global investors are struggling to find direction, and there is a hint of unease in the air.
1. Today's decline has no obvious catalyst; it is more likely influenced by profit-taking factors. Cautious investors are now turning their attention to the series of earnings reports that Chinese companies (Xiaomi, Tencent, Meituan, etc.) are about to announce. This decline has two relevant backgrounds:
· First, the global reciprocal tariffs are approaching on April 2nd. Theoretically, investors should be able to clearly understand the direction this week, as the policy meetings of the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of England provide signals. However, these central banks have indicated that tariffs have muddied the outlook, increasing the sense that the world will blindly enter April 2nd.
Second, the upward momentum in the Chinese market has weakened, and the downward momentum in the US market has also diminished. The market is beginning to reassess the view of 'bearish on the dollar and US stock market.' Once the reassessment is completed, global markets will be affected. If the assessment result is 'bottoming out,' then the Chinese market will feel some pressure. If the assessment result is disproven, the trend of 'the East rising while the West declines' will continue.
2. Investors currently still maintain confidence in the development prospects of China's artificial intelligence and other technology sectors, which means they may choose to buy during market corrections. The tug-of-war between bulls and bears will also amplify market volatility.
3. Gold prices have also declined simultaneously. Today's global market trend may not be a 'one-day market' but could be the beginning of a series of chain reactions.
4. Over the past week, market volatility has generally decreased. If volatility rises again, the market will be unprepared. People have already seen how President Trump's policies have injected an unprecedented wave of uncertainty into the market. Starting next week, caution is needed regarding the risk of rising volatility. Investor sentiment is very unstable, and this will be reflected in the market.#美联储3月利率决议