大海趋势

The 1-hour chart reveals a 'Heaven and Earth Needle' anomaly! After a sharp drop to 2492, it violently surged to around 2600 (Note: High and low point logic needs to be verified), and the price is currently stuck at the key retracement level of the yellow split line: 38.2% support acts as the life and death line for bulls and bears, while 61.8% resistance at 2230 is the bears' stronghold!

KDJ in the oversold zone golden cross rises - Short-term rebound signals flashing. MACD green bars shrink + bottom divergence - Bearish exhaustion hiding a potential reversal. Volume pulses significantly - Clear signs of main force washing out positions.

Tonight's strategy: If the 2430 support holds: Light position for a rebound, target resistance at 2520. If it breaks 2430: Stop-loss and chase shorts, target previous low at 2492. If it breaks 2540: Follow the trend and chase longs, looking at the previous high in the 2600 area.

Middle East powder keg explodes again! Iran and Israel fire missiles at each other; the crypto market enters 'risk-averse mode'.

Core Event Briefing (As of June 24):
Ceasefire Agreement Is Essentially Void: The ceasefire took effect for only a few hours before Iran launched 12 medium-range missiles at Israel, which retaliated by striking Tehran's core area, leading both sides into a 'tit-for-tat' cycle;
Oil price surge triggers inflation panic: Brent crude oil skyrocketed 7% in one week, nearing $78; if Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for 20% of global oil passage, oil prices could soar to $130/barrel, increasing global stagflation risk;

A major earthquake in the cryptocurrency world! CEX's dominant position is shaken, is the new king of DEX rising?

Since 2021, DEX trading volume has increased more than double compared to CEX.

The battlefield of cryptocurrency exchanges is filled with smoke! Centralized exchanges (CEX) seem to dominate, but they are being torn apart by decentralized exchanges (DEX). Shocking data: DEX spot trading volume has aggressively captured 25% of the market share, and the growth rate of perpetual contracts is insane! 80% trading volume, becoming the biggest dark horse of 2025! Moreover, DEX fees have leveled with or even fallen below CEX, 'CEX is like a five-star hotel, DEX is a convenience store everywhere—new coin wealth opportunities are only available at convenience stores that are first to list!'

#GPS #币安钱包TGE When altcoins are trading sideways with reduced volume, it’s not the calm before the storm, but rather the sound of the market maker sharpening their knives. GPS has been consolidating for 12 days, on-chain data reveals two major perilous signals:
Whales collectively fleeing: Top 10 holding addresses have reduced their positions by 120 million coins in 7 days (accounting for 9% of circulation), among them, market maker 0x8c2 deposited 80 million coins to Binance, with a cost price of only $0.021 (floating profit 61%), selling pressure is like a ticking time bomb.
Exchange bloodsucking: The price spread between buy and sell on Binance's GPS/USDT trading pair has widened to 12%, the depth is worse than third-tier coins, which means the actual price you get when your order is filled could plummet by 10%! Technical death triangle on the 4-hour chart: triple top resistance at $0.035, three failed attempts to break higher, main buyers have given up defending the trading volume; 5 consecutive days of shrinking volume by 60%; retail investors' buying strength exhausted, RSI at 47 in neutral zone turning downwards; bearish momentum is building.

When brokers play regulatory arbitrage, the meat grinder for retail investors gets a new blade! #国债 #剥头皮策略

Caixin's exclusive revelation: Guotai Junan International only obtained the VASP license for virtual asset service providers, not the real exchange VATP license! This "regulatory smokescreen" hides three sickles: VASP is essentially a modified version of a first-class license used by brokers, which can only act as virtual asset brokers to help clients place orders, without the right to custody or proprietary trading—equivalent to a 4S shop selling cars without the right to repair them. VASP client funds must be routed through licensed VATP platforms (like OSL), while brokers shift compliance costs to exchanges, earning commissions with zero risk. The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission opens a "backdoor" for traditional financial institutions with the VASP license, with only 2 true VATP licenses granted (OSL, HashKey), while the rest are all "middlemen"! Be vigilant about "license speculation" in the short term: brokers use the VASP name to pump the market, but in reality, they cannot increase market liquidity. In the long run, see through the "compliance pie in the sky": "When institutions nitpick the wording of licenses, it is destined that they only want to harvest without wanting to build."

When the ruble takes on digital wings, the dollar's wall cracks open for the first time
Russia's central bank officially announces: Digital ruble will be officially implemented in payments by September 2026! This is not only a technological upgrade but also three sharp knives aimed at dollar hegemony:
Energy settlement revolution: Oil and gas to be settled in digital rubles, bypassing SWIFT sanctions (Russia accounts for 12% of global crude oil exports)
BRICS Accelerator: Testing cross-border CBDC with 5 countries, adding nuclear-level tools for de-dollarization
Public 'mandatory participation': Civil servants' salaries/welfare to be prioritized in digital rubles, forcing everyone to use it. Revelations from the crypto world:

The current BTC market price is $107,053, rebounding as expected, but the upper space is suppressed by technical and news factors, with the top likely at $112,000-$115,000. Strong technical resistance: $110,600-$111,000 is a dense selling pressure area, with multiple failed attempts to break through in June at 97. $112,000 is the historical high, and a breakthrough is needed to open up new upward space; otherwise, it may trigger profit-taking sell-offs at 72. On-chain selling pressure signals: Long-term holders recently moved $420 million in BTC to exchanges, marking the fifth largest record since February; such actions often occur before price peaks at 7. Net inflow of BTC to exchanges has increased, and whale addresses have a strong willingness to sell near $111,000 at 59. News catalysts: Positive: U.S. Ethereum ETF has seen net inflow for 15 consecutive days ($40.3 million), and Bitcoin ETF also attracted $1.04 billion last week; if this continues, it could drive prices higher at 102. Negative: The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged in June, delaying rate cut expectations to the second half of the year, with liquidity not easing at 10. If the U.S.-Iran conflict escalates, it may test the $100,000 support again.

Death Triangle Revealed
MA55 and MA21 death cross zone (104,261-103,870) has suppressed prices three times (as indicated by arrows), any rebound to this level must reduce positions!
Overbought Nuclear Bomb Countdown
KDJ parameters (9,3,3) are highly sensitive, with K value at 88.51 being the peak of 2025, repair demand is imminent.
Main Force Tactics High Short Sniping Death Cross Zone
→ Rebound to 104,261 to set up short position (60% allocation), stop loss at 105,000, target at 102,570
→ If it breaks below 102,570, increase shorts to 99,000 (stop loss at 103,500)
Defensive Counterattack Ambush Institutional Cost Zone
→ Buy on dips in the range of 98,115-99,000 (30% allocation), stop loss at 97,000, target at 103,000

Federal Reserve's third-in-command Waller suddenly calls out 'July must cut rates,' directly contradicting Powell's cautious stance. The reason is quite straightforward: the unemployment rate is at rock bottom, inflation at 2.5% is not a concern, and if rates aren't raised soon, the job market will collapse! Trump seizes the opportunity to strike: 'Powell is an idiot, hurry up and cut!'

The futures market votes with real money—July rate cut probability skyrockets to 70%, and September probability surges to 90%! The dollar index stubbornly holds at 98, but institutional holdings have been cut to a 20-year low; the rebound is purely a 'paper tiger.'
Ethereum has absorbed $1.4 billion in institutional funds in just one week, with new wallets on-chain surging to 1 million per week. Whales (holding 1000-10,000 ETH) have quietly hoarded 14.3 million ETH, accounting for 18.6% of the circulating supply—giants are in position, just waiting for the starting gun.

This giant whale transferred 9,706 ETH worth about $24.03 million through ThorChain in 16 days, realizing a profit of $28.62 million. The remaining position of 1,914 ETH valued at $4.7 million may trigger follow-up sell-offs, especially when the price approaches historical resistance levels, so caution should be taken regarding increased selling pressure above.

Based on the above news, the layout for tonight given by the sea is
Core resistance range: $2449-2493
$2449: Donchian channel upper limit, tested multiple times today without effective breakthrough, resonating resistance with the 4-hour moving average cluster EMA20/50/100. $2490-2493: The upper limit of the Bollinger Band coincides with the high from 4 hours ago; if broken with volume, it can open space to $2600. $2500-2530: Short defense zone for southward trial positions; the early morning high of $2481 has validated the effectiveness of this area.

Powell's remarks on stablecoin legislation = granting official accounts to USDT and USDC, long-term positive but don't get too excited in the short term — before the bill is passed, it's all talk!
How the main players operate
First 3 days: Fake drop to wash out
The manipulators will definitely use 'regulatory bad news' to crash the market, especially targeting algorithmic stablecoin projects with poor compliance; BTC may dip to the 64,000 CME futures gap, taking the opportunity to increase long positions.
Last 4 days: Stablecoin favorites riot
Stocks related to USDT and USDC, such as MKR and AAVE, surge, BTC bounces back to the 67,200 resistance level, but altcoins are drained by funding waiting for policy clarity.
Retail survival guide:
Don't chase the rise; the legislative process for compliance concepts will take at least half a year.

Mr. Liu from Shenzhen wants to monopolize 3 million in Bitcoin + Ethereum in a divorce, a series of sneaky moves:
Stubbornly claiming it's all pre-marital personal property, but in reality, 60% was bought after marriage.
Transferred coins to an overseas exchange in the middle of the night thinking it would go unnoticed, even forged a pre-marital agreement, resulting in exposed handwriting and a crash.
Hardcore counterattack:
Wife directly hires a lawyer to check blockchain explorer records—every transfer is traceable on-chain! The court sees:
60% of the coins transferred in after marriage are considered community property.
Cross-border freezing of overseas accounts, Shenzhen Arbitration Court takes action, no escape.
Fake agreements compared to marriage certificates' handwriting, exposed on the spot with fines + lawsuit fees fully covered by the husband.

Guotai Junan International, a serious state-owned brokerage, has just received full licensing for virtual assets from the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission - in the future, you will be able to buy BTC, ETH, and even USDT directly in your stock trading account! No more hassle with Binance or OKX; you can switch between stocks and Bitcoin with one click on the brokerage app, making it accessible for everyone, including elderly folks.

Three major tactics for the state team entering the market.
Full-service trading: Opening accounts, depositing funds, and buying coins can all be done through the broker, no need to worry about running away or frozen cards, compliant licenses provide a safety net.
Customized high-end packages: Soon, structured products linked to Bitcoin will be released, similar to principal-protected investments. When it rises, you earn coins; when it falls, your losses are minimized.

Hash rate plummeted by 27% from 954 to 693 EH/s in three days, mainly due to the bombing of Iran's nuclear facilities which reportedly used nuclear energy for mining and the surge in electricity prices in Texas leading to miners unplugging their machines. Miners are now facing a cost of $98,600 to mine one coin, while the coin price is only $101,000. Daily revenue has dropped sharply from $50 million to $34 million, making it unsustainable – they must sell coins for cash to pay electricity bills! Short-term selling pressure is high, especially in the first three days.

Bitcoin is testing the 100,000 mark, but don't panic and buy the dip.
Miner selling pressure + repeated ceasefire in the Middle East. Trump just called for a ceasefire, but Iran and Israel are still at odds. BTC may first drop to the psychological line of 100,000, possibly even briefly breaking it. However, miner capitulation has historically been a bottom signal; after capitulating last October, BTC surged by 45%. Additionally, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates has risen to 53%, and in the following days, it will likely rebound and fluctuate around 1,050,000.

Hawk-Dove Battle

Uncle Bao is likely to repeat 'inflation is not dead, interest rate cuts are not urgent,' but will secretly leave a way out - 'data deterioration can turn at any time.' The crypto market will drop first and then rally; BTC will dip to 58K and bounce back to 60K, playing with a double kill of long and short!
Trump is going crazy
Understand King tweeted overnight cursing 'Powell the stupid donkey,' calling for a 2% interest rate cut. ETH takes the opportunity to surge to $2600, but before dawn, it will definitely be smashed back to reality; the dog fund specializes in cutting off the brainless follow-the-trend party!
The death line before the mid-term reversal is 58K: if Uncle Bao insists on 'no interest rate cuts, BTC weekly must break,' but if the Middle East explodes and Iran's nuclear facilities are bombed again, or if Trump successfully pushes back, it could instantly blow shorts to 65K!

Brothers, this time Sun Yuchen is doing a reverse IPO that directly boosted TRX by 526%, but we need to see through the dealer's script and how the retail investors are being harvested. Conclusion: There’s still a short-term surge, but a bloodbath is guaranteed by the end of the month! Below are key scripts for you.

The dealer's sharpening period is the next 7 days.
Currently, TRX has surged to $0.295, but watch out for the three deadly weapons in the dealer's hands.
Eric Trump personally supports Tron, this political buff can last at least a week.
$100 million financing to specifically buy TRX, equivalent to 7% of the daily trading volume; the dog dealer can easily push the price.

Technical analysis battlefield
Life hangs by the moving average wire
Current price $2403 is stuck just below the life and death moving average EMA14 at 42407, 0.5% position, it feels like stepping on a cliff
Keep dancing!

Danger signal: The closing price has been pressed by EMA55 $2409 for three consecutive weeks; this yellow line has become an 'iron ceiling' since the last breakthrough a month ago.
Turning Point Dawn: As long as the weekly K line stabilizes at 2407, combined with increased volume, it may directly bounce to 2560, the pressure level of the blue line in the chart.
Support level is the last line of defense
2384 absolutely cannot break! This position is the weekly chart's major bottom; even the Israeli missile strike in June couldn't break through, it plunged to 2350 and then immediately bounced back.

Breaking news! The U.S. Senate has just passed the GENIUS stablecoin act, and now it's the House's turn to make a decision. Trump is anxiously urging the House to quickly pass a 'pure version' of the bill without additional clauses, but there are two factions in Congress arguing over separate stablecoin legislation while another insists on tying it to cryptocurrency market structure reform.

Why is this important?
A new weapon for dollar hegemony: The GENIUS Act requires all stablecoins to be 100% backed by cash and short-term U.S. Treasury bonds, essentially allowing compliant stablecoins like USDC to drain resources, helping the U.S. to absorb massive amounts of national debt (currently, U.S. Treasuries are hard to sell, and banks are afraid to buy).