Middle East powder keg explodes again! Iran and Israel fire missiles at each other; the crypto market enters 'risk-averse mode'.
Core Event Briefing (As of June 24):
Ceasefire Agreement Is Essentially Void: The ceasefire took effect for only a few hours before Iran launched 12 medium-range missiles at Israel, which retaliated by striking Tehran's core area, leading both sides into a 'tit-for-tat' cycle;
Oil price surge triggers inflation panic: Brent crude oil skyrocketed 7% in one week, nearing $78; if Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for 20% of global oil passage, oil prices could soar to $130/barrel, increasing global stagflation risk;
Crypto market flash crash warning: On the day of the conflict escalation (June 13), Bitcoin fell 5% in one day, Ethereum plummeted 10%, with liquidations totaling $1.1 billion and the panic index breaking below 30.
Three major shocks to the crypto circle.
Institutional funds urgently seek safe havens.
ETF fund differentiation intensifies: BTC spot ETF saw a weekly net inflow of $1.02 billion supporting major positions, but ETH ETF had a net outflow of $11.3 million in one day, high beta assets facing institutional reduction.
Stablecoin premium turns negative: USDT's over-the-counter premium fell to -2.1%, with risk-averse funds rapidly exiting the crypto market.
Derivatives' open contracts surge, with ETH accumulating $2.7 billion in liquidation mines in the $2,400-$2,500 range; if broken, it will trigger a chain reaction of liquidations.
Historical experience: On June 20, during the leverage 'kill' event, BTC plummeted to $103,000, with 90% of liquidations being long positions.
If oil prices remain above $100/barrel → U.S. CPI may rebound to 5% → Federal Reserve delays interest rate cuts → Risk asset valuations come under pressure.
BTC's correlation with Nasdaq has risen to 0.8; if the U.S. stock market falls due to stagflation, the crypto market may struggle to stand alone.
Bitcoin's first month performance during conflict events as a key turning point: 2022 Russia-Ukraine war dropped 20% during ceasefire negotiations + Federal Reserve rate hikes; 2023 Israel-Palestine conflict first dropped 5% then rose 20%; regional risks manageable; 2025 Israel-Iran conflict dropped 4.5%; current Hormuz blockade = global risk.
Current core conflict: If the probability of Iran blocking the strait is 30%, BTC may test the $90,000 support; if the U.S. mediates a ceasefire with a probability of 60%, rebound target $105,000.
Practical strategies from the sea for old friends.
Emergency leverage reduction.
Contract positions reduced to below 3 times, avoiding ETH falling below $2,400 to trigger a liquidation wave.
Hedging plan: Spot holders open equivalent short positions BTC: ETH = 1:1; historical data shows hedging accounts lose less than 3%.
Place orders to ambush golden pits.
BTC Key Support: $98,000 institutional bottom cost zone + $90,000 extreme panic level.
ETH Bottom Line: $2,350 (June low) → On-chain whales accumulated 160,000 ETH over two weeks at an average price of $2,620.
Funds switching safe channels.
Fiat → Stablecoin prioritize Xapo Bank/IBAN channel.
Increase holdings in USDC, Coinbase had a net inflow of $870 million in one day, avoiding USDT freezing risks.
Ultimate Prediction: Crisis = Wealth Restructuring.
Short Term: Panic selling creates low-price chips, but beware of the 'oil inflation → Federal Reserve hawkish' chain reaction;
Medium Term: If the Israel-Iran situation evolves into a 'new normal conflict', BTC may replicate the deep V rebound seen in the 2023 Israel-Palestine market.
Long Term: The strong demand for cryptocurrencies in war-torn areas, like Iran using USDT for cross-border payments, continues to strengthen fundamental value.
Current action agenda: Keep enough USDT, reduce leverage, and place low-price orders! Once the market is wiped out by the big players, you and I will be the winners picking up the bloody chips!#以色列空襲伊朗核設施 $BTC
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