This whale has transferred 9,706 ETH worth approximately 24.03 million USD through ThorChain in 16 days, realizing a profit of 28.62 million USD. The remaining position of 1,914 ETH valued at 4.7 million USD may trigger following sell-offs, especially when the price approaches historical resistance levels, so caution is needed regarding increased selling pressure above.
Combining the above news, the layout provided by Dazai tonight is
Core resistance range: 2449-2493 USD
2449 USD: Donchian channel upper limit, tested multiple times today without effective breakthrough, resonating resistance with the 4-hour level moving average cluster EMA20/50/100. 2490-2493 USD: Bollinger band upper limit coinciding with the high from 4 hours ago; if broken with volume, it opens up to a space of 2600 USD. 2500-2530 USD: Short defensive area for testing southward positions; the early morning high of 2481 USD has confirmed the validity of pressure in this area.
Breakout strategy
If the volume stabilizes above 2450 with a single K-line volume > 150,000 ETH, chase long to 2490; increase positions after breaking 2493, with a target of 2520 and stop loss at 2470. If it breaks down, open a short when it fails to rebound after dropping below 2380, targeting 2317; if it sharply drops to the 2281 area, consider going long with a stop loss at 2250. Before the MACD death cross is repaired, all rebounds should be viewed as a trap for longs! If the lower level of 2380 is broken with significant volume, it will trigger the liquidation of 336 million USD in long positions.
The annotated chart clearly presents the key levels of long and short battles. It is recommended to closely monitor the breakout direction of the 2380-2450 oscillation range, and assess market sentiment in conjunction with Nasdaq futures (currently -0.02%) and USDT premiums (+0.01%).
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