Fed's third-in-command Waller suddenly calls out, 'Must cut rates in July,' directly slapping Powell's cautious attitude. The reason is straightforward: unemployment is at rock bottom, inflation at 2.5% is no big deal, and if we don't raise rates, the job market will collapse! Trump seizes the opportunity to stab: 'Powell is an idiot, hurry and cut!'



The futures market is voting with real money—July rate cut probability soars to 70%, September probability jumps to 90%! The dollar index is desperately holding at 98, but institutional holdings have been cut to a 20-year low, making the rebound purely a 'paper tiger.'
Ethereum has absorbed $1.4 billion in institutional funds in a single week, with new wallets on-chain surging to 1 million per week. Whales (holding 1000-10,000 ETH) have quietly hoarded 14.3 million ETH, accounting for 18.6% of the circulating supply—giant crocodiles are in position, just waiting for the starting gun.
The $2450 level is crucial! If it breaks above, look for 2600; if it breaks below, it could plunge to 2300. The current price is stuck between the middle Bollinger Band (2380) and the upper band (2493), the 30-minute RSI has surged to 64 (close to overbought), and MACD momentum is flattening—beware of false breakouts.

There are countless short liquidation orders piled up above $2900. If ETH surges violently, a series of liquidations could skyrocket the price! On-chain liquidation maps show: short positions have surged by 35%, and the 'fuel' is ready. The 4-hour super trend indicator has turned bullish (support at 2205), but the CMF capital inflow is only 0.04 (weak!). The main players are pulling back while pushing up—retail investors should be cautious of being trapped.
Breakout buying: Break out with volume above 2490, buy! Target 2550-2600 (stop-loss at 2450). Rapid drop bottom-fishing: If it drops to 2343 (EMA20 support), scoop up, then take 50 points and run 48. Ultimate gamble: Before the inflation data release on July 15, don't exceed 30% ETH position! Bad data → go all in; good data → cash is king, wait for a 59% drop.#美联储何时降息？ $BTC

$ETH


No technical indicator can accurately determine the trend. All we can do is manage risk while maximizing returns. Stay tuned for more exciting content in my next issue.