ETH Trend Analysis

Key Events and Impact Logic in the News

Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision (2 AM today):

Core Logic: If the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates (expected small reduction of 25 basis points), it is seen as a positive signal, potentially pushing BTC towards the 110,000 mark;

If interest rates remain unchanged, attention should be paid to the evolution of the U.S. debt crisis: an escalation in U.S. debt issues could trigger a depreciation of the dollar's credit, indirectly benefiting the cryptocurrency market; if the Federal Reserve and Musk (through market means) resolve the U.S. debt issue, it could negatively impact the cryptocurrency market.

Geopolitical Connections: If the Israel-Iran conflict escalates, U.S. financial resources may struggle to support it, potentially accelerating peace talks; short-term geopolitical risks may trigger market volatility, but historical experience shows that sharp declines are often followed by rebounds.

Interpretation: This week's interest rate decision is the decisive factor; everything is interconnected. If the Federal Reserve can cooperate with Trump on interest rate cuts, then the bull market continues, but given the current environment, a significant cut seems unlikely; any reduction would likely be minor or maintain the status quo.

If interest rates do not decrease, then the U.S. debt crisis will worsen. If the debt issue cannot be resolved, it could likely trigger a dollar credit crisis leading to a depreciation of the dollar, indirectly benefiting the cryptocurrency market, which may rise, but without the Federal Reserve's intervention, Musk could help navigate the crisis, which explains why Musk dared to publicly criticize Trump before.

If the Federal Reserve does not lower interest rates, but the debt issue is perfectly resolved, then it would be indirectly negative for the cryptocurrency market.

Furthermore, if the conflict between Iran and Israel escalates, U.S. financial resources may be insufficient to sustain this regional war, thus seeking peace talks with Iran.

Currently, the U.S. debt situation depends on the Federal Reserve, Musk, and the trajectory of the war; tonight, the focus is on the Federal Reserve's stance.

However, the Federal Reserve may not necessarily lend support, as they are opposing political parties; even if they do cut rates, it is expected to be just 25 basis points, which is not substantial. If it is negative, then rates would remain unchanged, and the possibility of an increase is low.

Resistance and Support, Long and Short Positions

Resistance around 2558

After breaking upward, pay attention to resistance around 2656

Support around 2462

After breaking downward, pay attention to support around 2380 #我的交易风格 #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥