6.18 Market Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC): The expected short-term fluctuation range is 104,000-108,000, overall inclined to rebound after a pullback;

Ethereum (ETH): The expected fluctuation range is 2,480-2,620, with the trend synchronously looking for a pullback and rise;

【Important Event Nodes】

Wednesday 04:30: U.S. Senate votes on the stablecoin bill "GENIUS Act" (expected to pass, neutral impact);

Wednesday 20:30: U.S. releases initial unemployment claims for the week ending June 14;

Thursday 02:00: Federal Reserve FOMC announces interest rate decision and summary of economic projections;

Thursday 02:30: Federal Reserve Chairman Powell holds a monetary policy press conference (key impact point).

【Market Logic】

Yesterday, Bitcoin and Ethereum fell, primarily due to Trump calling for "everyone to evacuate Tehran" and interrupting the G7 meeting to return home to handle military affairs, raising market concerns about the escalation of the Israel-Iran situation. Historical experience shows that conflicts between Israel and Iran often lead to a rebound after an initial sharp market drop, so short-term geopolitical risks may only cause temporary fluctuations, and the downtrend is expected to recover.

Key impact of Federal Reserve policy: Tonight's Powell press conference will be a core variable: if the statement is dovish, Bitcoin may surge towards the 110,000 mark; if the stance is neutral or hawkish, prices are likely to fluctuate in the range of 108,000-104,000. Day trading direction: prioritize bullish (rebound logic) until Powell's speech reveals policy tendencies; if the Middle East situation deteriorates beyond expectations causing a sharp drop, one can consider positioning long near the 100,000 mark or after breaking below that point【Multi-Cycle Outlook】

The core range for Bitcoin remains 104,000-108,000;

The core range for Ethereum focuses on 2,500-2,700.

【Operation Strategy Summary】

Mainly focus on low buying during pullbacks and supplement with high selling, with a key focus on Powell's speech guidance at 02:30. If a sharp drop or significant decline occurs, take the opportunity to bottom fish. #我的交易风格 #eth #BTC走势分析