BTC (Big Coin): The expected fluctuation range is 104500-106500, with a potential 'first drop, then rise' trend during the day, and a rebound opportunity after the decline.

ETH (Second Coin): The expected fluctuation range is 2510-2580, trending in sync with Bitcoin, likely to experience a rebound after a decline.

Core events this week: Focus on the Bank of Japan's decision (Tuesday) and the Federal Reserve's decision (Thursday), with Powell's speech potentially serving as a key guide for market direction.

BTC core range: Pay attention to the medium to long-term fluctuation range of 104000-108000; ETH core range: 2500-2700.

① The sharp drop in BTC at 8 AM may be related to Trump's call to 'evacuate Tehran,' raising market concerns about the escalation of the Israel-Iran situation. Historical experience shows that such geopolitical conflicts can trigger short-term sharp declines (as seen when Israel first bombed Iran), but often lead to rebounds after the emotional release, with non-decisive effects on the trend.

② If U.S. retail data tonight at 20:30 is below expectations, it will reinforce market speculation on a rate cut in September, but further confirmation of expectations will need to wait for Powell's speech on Thursday. The vote on the 'GENIUS Act' early Wednesday morning may become a turning point for market sentiment; if passed, it could drive a market rebound.

Conditions for going long: Wait for the price to reach the lower edge of the fluctuation range, then look for stabilization signals (such as long lower shadow candlesticks, shrinking trading volume) before entering the market in batches. Sharp declines can provide opportunities for bottom fishing, with light positions to bet on rebounds.