子洛
03年｜主推宏观经济｜不定期掉落项目分析｜空投玩家
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The impact of tariffs has come to the surface, and does a negative GDP mean that stagflation is just around the corner?
First, it should be noted that the main reason for the negative GDP is actually the expansion of the U.S. trade deficit, which is triggered by the ‘panic’ import behavior caused by tariff policies. See Figure 1
Simply put, companies are hoarding goods in advance, resulting in a further expansion of the trade deficit.
Tariffs may further distort the economy, affecting consumption, prices, and risks, and of course, close attention needs to be paid to the subsequent policy implementation and global trade reactions.
///
Returning to the discussion of ‘stagflation’ and ‘recession’, I believe that recent data does not clearly indicate that the U.S. economy is on the path to recession. Or this Friday's unemployment rate and non-farm payrolls may provide a clearer answer.
In the context of ‘incomplete data’, we can directly observe market reactions. Last night, the U.S. stock market fell by about 2.5%, which is a significant drop, but it recovered before closing, proving that investors or ‘capital’ do not believe that the data can accurately reflect a recession.
Waiting for this Friday's data.
First, it should be noted that the main reason for the negative GDP is actually the expansion of the U.S. trade deficit, which is triggered by the ‘panic’ import behavior caused by tariff policies. See Figure 1
Simply put, companies are hoarding goods in advance, resulting in a further expansion of the trade deficit.
Tariffs may further distort the economy, affecting consumption, prices, and risks, and of course, close attention needs to be paid to the subsequent policy implementation and global trade reactions.
///
Returning to the discussion of ‘stagflation’ and ‘recession’, I believe that recent data does not clearly indicate that the U.S. economy is on the path to recession. Or this Friday's unemployment rate and non-farm payrolls may provide a clearer answer.
In the context of ‘incomplete data’, we can directly observe market reactions. Last night, the U.S. stock market fell by about 2.5%, which is a significant drop, but it recovered before closing, proving that investors or ‘capital’ do not believe that the data can accurately reflect a recession.
Waiting for this Friday's data.
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Overturning the Arguments Focused on the Market Over the Past Month — Trump is not the main cause of this decline
The market's decline over the past month was merely a tailwind for Trump, and the tariffs we've been hearing about for over a month have always appeared in the form of 'leverage' in the market, as the overwhelming and uncertain tariffs only bring anxiety to the market, and emotions are leverage.
Why do I say this? I have summarized four reasons to explain.
1) Time lags and expectation-driven:
In the past two months, employment, consumption, and inflation data have been similar to those during Biden's term—employment at 173,000, unemployment rate at 4.2%, and a slight decrease in inflation.
It can be seen that Trump's tariff policy has not yet fully impacted economic data, and the market sell-off is more driven by panic caused by tariff uncertainty (emotional leverage) rather than actual economic shocks. Furthermore, the Wall Street Journal pointed out that importers hoarding goods in advance and companies delaying price adjustments further postponed the impact.
Why do I say this? I have summarized four reasons to explain.
1) Time lags and expectation-driven:
In the past two months, employment, consumption, and inflation data have been similar to those during Biden's term—employment at 173,000, unemployment rate at 4.2%, and a slight decrease in inflation.
It can be seen that Trump's tariff policy has not yet fully impacted economic data, and the market sell-off is more driven by panic caused by tariff uncertainty (emotional leverage) rather than actual economic shocks. Furthermore, the Wall Street Journal pointed out that importers hoarding goods in advance and companies delaying price adjustments further postponed the impact.
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Is the dollar's continuous weakening a sign of lost hegemony? Sentiment has cooled, but the aftershocks of 'tariffs' continue.
Last time, I successfully predicted the crisis of U.S. Treasury bonds before the triple threat of stocks, bonds, and exchange rates. By the way, I admire @realBillZhang for spotting the mistake at a glance.
It should be the stock market @ bond market, because by the time I realized it, the editing time had passed, so I pretended not to see it. It seems one really can't just go with the flow 🐒
Although everyone's sentiment towards tariffs has shown diminishing marginal effects, the issues they raise are steadfast. These include, but are not limited to, economic recession, stagflation, and the continued weakening of the dollar.
Now that it's come to today, I will approach it from the perspective of the dollar, explaining why I believe the foundation of the global economy has developed cracks (a crisis of trust) and whether the dollar's status will collapse.
It should be the stock market @ bond market, because by the time I realized it, the editing time had passed, so I pretended not to see it. It seems one really can't just go with the flow 🐒
Although everyone's sentiment towards tariffs has shown diminishing marginal effects, the issues they raise are steadfast. These include, but are not limited to, economic recession, stagflation, and the continued weakening of the dollar.
Now that it's come to today, I will approach it from the perspective of the dollar, explaining why I believe the foundation of the global economy has developed cracks (a crisis of trust) and whether the dollar's status will collapse.
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Are tariffs increased to 245% again? In fact, tariffs are more complicated than you might think.
Are tariffs increased to 245% again?
In fact, tariffs are more complicated than you might think.
Due to unstable and continuously changing trade rules, tariffs have not gradually shifted product demand from taxed countries to other untaxed countries; in some cases, they have indeed reduced costs and sometimes even offset new taxes.
Base tax rate
The standard tax rate applicable to globally imported goods varies by product, with most rates being very low. An average of 3.4%
Introduced during the first term of the Trump administration and gradually expanded by former President Biden, aimed at protecting American industries.
In fact, tariffs are more complicated than you might think.
Due to unstable and continuously changing trade rules, tariffs have not gradually shifted product demand from taxed countries to other untaxed countries; in some cases, they have indeed reduced costs and sometimes even offset new taxes.
Base tax rate
The standard tax rate applicable to globally imported goods varies by product, with most rates being very low. An average of 3.4%
Introduced during the first term of the Trump administration and gradually expanded by former President Biden, aimed at protecting American industries.
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Project team's deceitful tactics exposed
OM officials indicate that this is triggered by liquidation 🐒
By the way, let’s analyze the trading techniques commonly used by project teams.
First, let’s explain the commonly used trading tactics in the current market, the simplest and most heard phrases:
1) High locked-up amount, low circulation amount
2) High coin price, low liquidity
High locked-up amount → Easy to control the market
Poor liquidity → Coin price is easy to control
This way, the project team can easily manipulate prices by buying and selling among themselves, raising the price, and continuously selling at high positions to unsuspecting investors. Of course, they will also constantly release positive news during this process.
‘Teacher, teacher, we are not fools, we just won’t take over, right?’
By the way, let’s analyze the trading techniques commonly used by project teams.
First, let’s explain the commonly used trading tactics in the current market, the simplest and most heard phrases:
1) High locked-up amount, low circulation amount
2) High coin price, low liquidity
High locked-up amount → Easy to control the market
Poor liquidity → Coin price is easy to control
This way, the project team can easily manipulate prices by buying and selling among themselves, raising the price, and continuously selling at high positions to unsuspecting investors. Of course, they will also constantly release positive news during this process.
‘Teacher, teacher, we are not fools, we just won’t take over, right?’
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Explain, this is the volatility of U.S. Treasuries.
Usually, when it approaches 140, the Federal Reserve will intervene.
Translate "This data provides the Federal Reserve with an excuse to initiate further interest rate cuts/quantitative easing."
The bond market is the Federal Reserve's bottom line.
Get ready for quantitative easing.
Tweeted on April 9, forgot the plaza🥶
Usually, when it approaches 140, the Federal Reserve will intervene.
Translate "This data provides the Federal Reserve with an excuse to initiate further interest rate cuts/quantitative easing."
The bond market is the Federal Reserve's bottom line.
Get ready for quantitative easing.
Tweeted on April 9, forgot the plaza🥶
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I'm sorry, I was wrong, he is dealing with US Treasuries. (Image 1)
Also, please let go of the obsession with tariff numbers.
For the Federal Reserve, the stock market is definitely greater than the bond market, but just yesterday (April 7, 2025), the US Treasury market experienced its largest single-day sell-off since March 2020, with the 30-year yield rising sharply (about 21 basis points) and the 10-year yield climbing to 4.18%, causing bond prices to drop significantly.
In the face of a sharp decline in the stock market, the safe-haven nature of US Treasuries is being questioned.
The current situation is:
1. Investors are turning to cash and off-balance-sheet tools like interest rate swaps.
2. Hedge funds are reducing leverage.
3. Traditional asset management companies are selling off capital-raising assets, exacerbating the selling pressure.
What we see is that tariffs have led to isolationism, weakening foreign demand for Treasuries, shaking market confidence → compounded by a shift in safe-haven logic → yields facing sustained upward risk.
This is what you should pay attention to:
The so-called aftereffects of tariffs.
I am quoting @ChenSistine's tweet.
When tariffs are as high as 54% or even 104%, it actually doesn't make a difference to us anymore.
It's like whether you buy a pair of shoes for 50,000 or 100,000, it has long ceased to be about cost-performance ratio.
Rather, it's the identity game of 'I buy because I have a problem' vs 'I can buy it no matter the price.'
Also, please let go of the obsession with tariff numbers.
For the Federal Reserve, the stock market is definitely greater than the bond market, but just yesterday (April 7, 2025), the US Treasury market experienced its largest single-day sell-off since March 2020, with the 30-year yield rising sharply (about 21 basis points) and the 10-year yield climbing to 4.18%, causing bond prices to drop significantly.
In the face of a sharp decline in the stock market, the safe-haven nature of US Treasuries is being questioned.
The current situation is:
1. Investors are turning to cash and off-balance-sheet tools like interest rate swaps.
2. Hedge funds are reducing leverage.
3. Traditional asset management companies are selling off capital-raising assets, exacerbating the selling pressure.
What we see is that tariffs have led to isolationism, weakening foreign demand for Treasuries, shaking market confidence → compounded by a shift in safe-haven logic → yields facing sustained upward risk.
This is what you should pay attention to:
The so-called aftereffects of tariffs.
I am quoting @ChenSistine's tweet.
When tariffs are as high as 54% or even 104%, it actually doesn't make a difference to us anymore.
It's like whether you buy a pair of shoes for 50,000 or 100,000, it has long ceased to be about cost-performance ratio.
Rather, it's the identity game of 'I buy because I have a problem' vs 'I can buy it no matter the price.'
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When you simplify the "Tian Ji's Horse Racing" from the textbook into strategic teaching, we see a truth.
Sun Bin is not only adjusting the order of the horses, but also tearing apart the collective anxiety of "must win all."
King Wei of Qi represents the system's established "perfect standard."
And Tian Ji's "losing one and winning two" teaches us: the true breakthrough point in life lies in allowing ourselves to have strategic defeats. Some battles are destined to be abandoned in order to free our hands to seize real opportunities.
I will not guess the absolute bottom
I only need a relatively low point.
Sun Bin is not only adjusting the order of the horses, but also tearing apart the collective anxiety of "must win all."
King Wei of Qi represents the system's established "perfect standard."
And Tian Ji's "losing one and winning two" teaches us: the true breakthrough point in life lies in allowing ourselves to have strategic defeats. Some battles are destined to be abandoned in order to free our hands to seize real opportunities.
I will not guess the absolute bottom
I only need a relatively low point.
See original
Highlights from Fed Chair Powell's Speech on April 5th
If you find life difficult, take a look at this man—Powell.
Facing pressures from the stock market, politics, inflation, and unemployment, any misstatement could lead to a stock market crash (especially in the current situation).
In the upper part, I used AI to integrate Powell's speech content.
The lower part presents personal insights.
↓↓↓↓
Powell stated that the current economic outlook is generally robust, despite increased uncertainty and downside risks, but the Federal Reserve is committed to achieving its dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability.
Economic data shows growth is slowing but still resilient, the labor market is generally balanced, and inflation, although above the 2% target, has significantly declined. In the future, trade policies (such as tariff increases) may push up inflation and suppress growth, short-term inflation expectations have risen, but long-term expectations remain stable at 2%.
Facing pressures from the stock market, politics, inflation, and unemployment, any misstatement could lead to a stock market crash (especially in the current situation).
In the upper part, I used AI to integrate Powell's speech content.
The lower part presents personal insights.
↓↓↓↓
Powell stated that the current economic outlook is generally robust, despite increased uncertainty and downside risks, but the Federal Reserve is committed to achieving its dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability.
Economic data shows growth is slowing but still resilient, the labor market is generally balanced, and inflation, although above the 2% target, has significantly declined. In the future, trade policies (such as tariff increases) may push up inflation and suppress growth, short-term inflation expectations have risen, but long-term expectations remain stable at 2%.
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Tariff Map Image One Image Two
It can be said that everyone has a share and will never be left out
After the tariffs were announced last night, there was a general decline
The reason for the decline aligns with my expectations for tariff hawks yesterday:
A comprehensive 20% tariff impacting $1.5 trillion in imports, potentially causing a 4% shrinkage in GDP and a 2.5% rise in inflation, comparable to a financial crisis (as mentioned in last night's article)
Yesterday's prediction was relatively accurate, but there is still a slight discrepancy in the numbers. It is estimated that Mr. Powell (Chairman of the Federal Reserve) is pacing in his office in distress 😶🌫️
The good news is that it has finally landed.
It can be said that everyone has a share and will never be left out
After the tariffs were announced last night, there was a general decline
The reason for the decline aligns with my expectations for tariff hawks yesterday:
A comprehensive 20% tariff impacting $1.5 trillion in imports, potentially causing a 4% shrinkage in GDP and a 2.5% rise in inflation, comparable to a financial crisis (as mentioned in last night's article)
Yesterday's prediction was relatively accurate, but there is still a slight discrepancy in the numbers. It is estimated that Mr. Powell (Chairman of the Federal Reserve) is pacing in his office in distress 😶🌫️
The good news is that it has finally landed.
See original
Macroeconomic Briefing on April 2
A macro update before bed, all are personal opinions, not investment advice.
I will focus on market sentiment, Trump's tariff policy, and Bitcoin trends:
1. Market Sentiment and Dynamics
Current Market Atmosphere (April 2)
Third Opinion: The market tends to amplify good news. Last night, two unfavorable macro data points (ISM manufacturing contraction and job vacancies below expectations) did not hinder the rise in risk assets, indicating a shift in sentiment from 'nitpicking' to seeking positives. The rebound aligns with expectations, reflecting the logic of ‘bad news has been fully digested.’
Earlier, the US stock market ignored bad news (such as Dallas Fed data); however, the impact of the auto tariffs announced on March 27 was severe, showing weak sentiment. Currently (April 2), the market is more volatile on the eve of the tariff announcement. While negative news can be digested, confidence remains shaky.
I will focus on market sentiment, Trump's tariff policy, and Bitcoin trends:
1. Market Sentiment and Dynamics
Current Market Atmosphere (April 2)
Third Opinion: The market tends to amplify good news. Last night, two unfavorable macro data points (ISM manufacturing contraction and job vacancies below expectations) did not hinder the rise in risk assets, indicating a shift in sentiment from 'nitpicking' to seeking positives. The rebound aligns with expectations, reflecting the logic of ‘bad news has been fully digested.’
Earlier, the US stock market ignored bad news (such as Dallas Fed data); however, the impact of the auto tariffs announced on March 27 was severe, showing weak sentiment. Currently (April 2), the market is more volatile on the eve of the tariff announcement. While negative news can be digested, confidence remains shaky.
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I see a problem in this circle, which is also my own problem. Too many young people with deep thoughts are limited by their thinking when it comes to action. Because their souls are ahead of their age. If you do not practice the principles you understand, as these principles accumulate, you become increasingly fragmented.
When adding to thoughts, action will be reduced.
So practice - execution ability > principles
When adding to thoughts, action will be reduced.
So practice - execution ability > principles
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Why is it a good thing that the market returns to being dominated by the Federal Reserve?
Answer: The Federal Reserve manages expectations and communicates with the market through various methods (including the previously mentioned Federal Reserve 'mouthpiece') to achieve a common ground with actual market prices, thereby reducing severe market fluctuations.
A specific example can be referenced from this month, the March FOMC meeting, where the market had already priced in the expectation that interest rates would remain unchanged, so the Federal Reserve would definitely not lower or raise interest rates in March. Similarly, if the market fully prices in the expectation of a rate cut in June, then the Federal Reserve will cut rates in June.
It is important to note that this does not mean the market influences the Federal Reserve's decisions; on the contrary, all expectations and pricing in the market are managed step by step by the Federal Reserve.
Please be sure to understand the causal relationship in this matter
Because the market has once again returned to the logic of the Federal Reserve.
Answer: The Federal Reserve manages expectations and communicates with the market through various methods (including the previously mentioned Federal Reserve 'mouthpiece') to achieve a common ground with actual market prices, thereby reducing severe market fluctuations.
A specific example can be referenced from this month, the March FOMC meeting, where the market had already priced in the expectation that interest rates would remain unchanged, so the Federal Reserve would definitely not lower or raise interest rates in March. Similarly, if the market fully prices in the expectation of a rate cut in June, then the Federal Reserve will cut rates in June.
It is important to note that this does not mean the market influences the Federal Reserve's decisions; on the contrary, all expectations and pricing in the market are managed step by step by the Federal Reserve.
Please be sure to understand the causal relationship in this matter
Because the market has once again returned to the logic of the Federal Reserve.
See original
Federal Reserve March Interest Rate Decision
#美联储3月利率决议
No interest rate cuts (in line with expectations), dot plot indicates two interest rate cuts in 2025 (in line with expectations), slowing down balance sheet reduction.
My personal opinion:
In simple terms, the information that this FOMC wants to convey.
#“We at the Federal Reserve see some uncertainty, but everything is going smoothly, and the U.S. is not in a recession.”
Being too eager / significantly increasing interest rate cuts + quantitative easing = recession has already occurred / they clearly see a recession; reducing interest rate cuts + continuing balance sheet reduction = the market will further decline, leading to a real recession.
This time, choosing to 'slow down' the balance sheet reduction still aligns with the expectation of two interest rate cuts, taking a middle ground between not hitting the market and countering inflation, as well as multiple points meeting expectations.
No interest rate cuts (in line with expectations), dot plot indicates two interest rate cuts in 2025 (in line with expectations), slowing down balance sheet reduction.
My personal opinion:
In simple terms, the information that this FOMC wants to convey.
#“We at the Federal Reserve see some uncertainty, but everything is going smoothly, and the U.S. is not in a recession.”
Being too eager / significantly increasing interest rate cuts + quantitative easing = recession has already occurred / they clearly see a recession; reducing interest rate cuts + continuing balance sheet reduction = the market will further decline, leading to a real recession.
This time, choosing to 'slow down' the balance sheet reduction still aligns with the expectation of two interest rate cuts, taking a middle ground between not hitting the market and countering inflation, as well as multiple points meeting expectations.
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