If you find life difficult, take a look at this man—Powell.
Facing pressures from the stock market, politics, inflation, and unemployment, any misstatement could lead to a stock market crash (especially in the current situation).
In the upper part, I used AI to integrate Powell's speech content.
The lower part presents personal insights.
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Powell stated that the current economic outlook is generally robust, despite increased uncertainty and downside risks, but the Federal Reserve is committed to achieving its dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability.
Economic data shows growth is slowing but still resilient, the labor market is generally balanced, and inflation, although above the 2% target, has significantly declined. In the future, trade policies (such as tariff increases) may push up inflation and suppress growth, short-term inflation expectations have risen, but long-term expectations remain stable at 2%.
At the same time, it is mentioned that changes in the new government's trade, immigration, fiscal, and regulatory policies bring high uncertainty, while the Federal Reserve's current policy stance is prepared to respond and will adjust direction based on economic data and policy impact assessments.
The specific impact of tariffs remains unclear but may exceed expectations, leading to temporary or sustained inflation. The Federal Reserve emphasizes the importance of anchoring long-term inflation expectations to avoid one-off price increases evolving into persistent inflation (sticky inflation during the pandemic). There are currently no clear signals for policy adjustments, and data and risk balance will continue to be observed.
Key points integration:
Economic status: Economic growth is robust but slowing, the labor market is balanced, and inflation has fallen from the pandemic peak to 2.5%-2.8%, still above the 2% target.
Risks and challenges: New policies (especially tariffs) may push up inflation and suppress growth, with short-term expectations rising and long-term expectations stable.
Monetary policy stance: In the face of uncertainty, the current policy responds flexibly, with a focus on anchoring long-term inflation expectations to avoid persistent inflation.
Closely monitor data and policy impacts, and not rush to adjust policies to ensure the achievement of the dual mandate.
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Personal insight:
In the short term, this is a neutral to hawkish statement. Powell has repeatedly mentioned not rushing to act, stating, 'We have time,' and believes that tariffs bring high uncertainty; they (the Federal Reserve) also need more clarity.
In the long term, Powell has repeatedly mentioned that 'the economy is very stable.' Regarding the so-called 'clarity,' he stated that perhaps this year we will see a way forward (Good news). An important message is that Powell mentioned 'no matter what happens, we must stabilize the economy,' which actually sends a signal → 'The Federal Reserve will take measures to stabilize the market.'
Subtext: Shifting all problems onto Trump. To put it bluntly, the stock market mess created by that old guy is not my fault (we also need more clarity).
Next, I will prioritize active income and reduce operations. I will start dollar-cost averaging; I do not believe I can hit the absolute bottom; I just need a relatively low point.
This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice.