A macro update before bed, all are personal opinions, not investment advice.
I will focus on market sentiment, Trump's tariff policy, and Bitcoin trends:
1. Market Sentiment and Dynamics
Current Market Atmosphere (April 2)
Third Opinion: The market tends to amplify good news. Last night, two unfavorable macro data points (ISM manufacturing contraction and job vacancies below expectations) did not hinder the rise in risk assets, indicating a shift in sentiment from 'nitpicking' to seeking positives. The rebound aligns with expectations, reflecting the logic of ‘bad news has been fully digested.’
Earlier, the US stock market ignored bad news (such as Dallas Fed data); however, the impact of the auto tariffs announced on March 27 was severe, showing weak sentiment. Currently (April 2), the market is more volatile on the eve of the tariff announcement. While negative news can be digested, confidence remains shaky.
A brief summary; uncertainty still dominates.
Before the tariffs are finalized, mixed information from the media (such as The Washington Post and The Wall Street Journal) suggests that the Trump team may test market reactions through leaks and adjust strategies. After the US stock market closes (tonight at 4 AM, announced in the Rose Garden), Bitcoin, as a 24-hour trading asset, will be directly impacted and become a leading indicator in the risk market.
2. Focus on Trump's Tariff Policy
Trump will announce tariff details tonight (April 2 at 4:00 PM EDT, April 3 at 4:00 AM Beijing time) in the Rose Garden, delaying until after the US stock market closes to avoid immediate impact, allowing for a day of digestion.
Announcement Timing and Possible Scenarios, two main options:
Hawkish: A comprehensive 20% tariff affecting $1.5 trillion in imports, potentially shrinking GDP by 4% and raising inflation by 2.5%, comparable to the financial crisis (supported by data from the first and second sections).
Dovish: Reciprocal tariffs (matching foreign tax rates). White House Press Secretary Caroline Levitt stated that Trump is open to negotiations, suggesting flexibility (such as lowering foreign tariffs or reaching agreements).
What is certain is that there is intense internal debate, policy is unstable, and the risk of economic recession (Goldman Sachs predicts a rise from 20% to 30%) and inflation pressure are under scrutiny.
3. Bitcoin
Returning to Bitcoin
Last night's strong rebound met the expected target, but tonight's tariff results will determine subsequent pressure, as it will be the first to feel the impact as a risk indicator.
It can be seen that MicroStrategy continues to increase its holdings ($1.92 billion), boosting confidence, while GameStop joins in hoarding coins ($1.3 billion), strengthening the bulls. Current bullish advantages depend on macro factors.
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Summary:
Tonight's Key: Whether Trump's tariffs are a comprehensive 20% or a reciprocal plan will determine the market's short-term fate. A dovish outcome (open negotiations) favors a rebound in risk assets; a hawkish stance would trigger retaliation and fears of recession.
The US stock market has room for digestion, but Bitcoin is under immediate pressure. Investors need to pay attention to the results at 4 AM and adjust flexibly.
From a long-term perspective, the peak of uncertainty or past events, but if the tariff tug-of-war continues, companies delaying investments will harm the economy. Close monitoring of subsequent negotiations and retaliatory dynamics from various countries is necessary.
