The market's decline over the past month was merely a tailwind for Trump, and the tariffs we've been hearing about for over a month have always appeared in the form of 'leverage' in the market, as the overwhelming and uncertain tariffs only bring anxiety to the market, and emotions are leverage.

Why do I say this? I have summarized four reasons to explain.

1) Time lags and expectation-driven:

In the past two months, employment, consumption, and inflation data have been similar to those during Biden's term—employment at 173,000, unemployment rate at 4.2%, and a slight decrease in inflation.

It can be seen that Trump's tariff policy has not yet fully impacted economic data, and the market sell-off is more driven by panic caused by tariff uncertainty (emotional leverage) rather than actual economic shocks. Furthermore, the Wall Street Journal pointed out that importers hoarding goods in advance and companies delaying price adjustments further postponed the impact.

2) Market valuations and external factors:

The stock market decline is partly attributed to the high valuations at the beginning of 2025 and the cooling of the AI frenzy (such as Trump's restrictions on AI chip sales to China).

The stock market may decline due to these factors, unrelated to tariffs.

3) Feedback mechanisms weaken the impact:

Trump's suspension of some tariffs, exemptions for products like smartphones, and the initiation of negotiations have alleviated market panic. Companies have delayed actions due to policy uncertainty, and the absence of retaliation from other countries further limited the short-term impact of tariffs; behavioral feedback, such as reduced border crossings by immigrants and federal employees delaying resignations, has also weakened the direct impact of policies on the economy.

* Federal layoffs were only 10,100, far below the target of 240,000.

4) The timing of insider selling:

According to data from Washington service companies, the scale of insider selling in the first quarter of this year ($15.5 billion) was lower than the same period last year ($28.1 billion), but more evenly distributed. The top ten sellers include Zuckerberg, Katz, Dimon, etc., and their sales at market peaks show that their trades were strategic cash-outs rather than direct reactions to tariff expectations.

Although the scale of selling is large, much of this selling was conducted through 10b5-1 plans, indicating that these were pre-planned trades, distributed evenly, and lower than last year, showing that this is not abnormal behavior.

◆ In summary:

The stock market downturn is more driven by high valuations, the cooling of the AI frenzy, and expectation-induced panic from tariff uncertainty, rather than direct economic consequences of Trump's policies.

Economic data has not shown significant impacts from tariffs, layoffs, or deportations.

What can be seen is that time lags, feedback mechanisms, and economic scale further weakened the policy impact. Insider selling reflects conventional financial planning rather than an immediate reaction to Trump's policies.

Therefore, the stock market downturn has a weak correlation with Trump, being more a result of market cyclicality and external factors.

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As for 'Will there be a rate cut in May or June?'

I share the same view as @PhyrexNi on this point.

The Fed will not lower interest rates unless there is an economic recession or more severe events such as a larger-scale sell-off of U.S. Treasury bonds.

Perhaps the real darkest moment has not yet arrived.

This seems to be another topic, so I won't discuss it here.