芦苇在说

March 11th predicted the bottom of BTC at 74000

Today again predicts that BTC will not directly break above 100000, and will welcome the first pullback since 74000, with a possibility of dropping back to around 86000.

Let me say it again

The first target of ETH2000 remains unchanged, now it just needs a big bullish candle, which will completely change everyone's belief, so wait.

VIRTUAL, AIXBT, TURBO, WLD, LPT, SHELL, CGPT, COOKIE, NIL, IO, ARKM
TAO...
Too much to be sent all at once
All the drops from Sunday and this morning have come back
Choose a few that you are optimistic about and invest heavily
Prioritize the leading projects as much as possible, virtual has reached a new high
The current AI is just like the metaverse in 2021
At that time, sand, mana, axs, magic...
External funds must have a super large entrance to enter web3
And now AI is undoubtedly that entrance
Although memes are also good, the AI story is easier to tell.

Answering fan questions: The rise and fall of BTC and ETH is entirely determined by Americans. How to pay attention to market trends and determine when to increase positions for buying or selling?

Answer: The mainstream trading pair in the crypto market is USDT, but American investors prefer to deposit and withdraw using USDC. Therefore, fluctuations in USDC prices can indicate market trends:

1. If increasing positions or engaging in shady practices to buy, the obvious sign is selling USDC to buy USDT. The price of USDC will decrease, and BTC and ETH are very likely to rally, thus increasing in price.

2. Conversely, if USDC rises, it likely indicates that bearish sentiments are brewing or that there is significant selling of BTC and ETH.

The overall trend of Bitcoin prices shows a sideways fluctuation, with prices oscillating within a certain range, currently around 94352.5.
The market has experienced important patterns at multiple points, such as the bearish engulfing pattern, indicating potential risks of a decline in the short term. In the short term, the market has just undergone a round of increases and entered a consolidation phase. The AO and MACD indicators suggest that there may be signs of a bottom and rebound, but the balance of buying and selling forces keeps the market in a wait-and-see state.
Support and resistance levels indicate that the current market maintains an optimistic sentiment and has strong upward momentum.
Suggestion: Given that the market has recently remained in a sideways fluctuation, there may be signs of adjustment and potential rebound opportunities in the short term. Attention should be paid to the key support level below at 93777 and the resistance level above at 95768.6, especially the stability of the support level.
If prices continue to rise, consider going long in the short term and setting appropriate stop-loss points.

Italianrot's fifth breakthrough volume can't keep up, it will weaken

This indeed happened, as shown in the picture, the price reached a new high, but the trading volume could not exceed the volume at the breakthrough of 5m

Moreover, it failed to break through in that position after trying 5 times in a row, and the trading volume gradually shrank, leading to a 60% correction

Just at the Fibonacci level, it built a bottom and quickly pulled back into the trend line, currently gathering strength

This method of washing the盘 is similar to dark techniques

Now the cars are lighter, including several large cars that have already cleared their positions, so the subsequent rally will be easier.

Just finished writing, please read patiently. Dealer's Mindset

You can switch from the perspective of a 'trader' to that of a 'harvester' and review the new coins recently listed on BN: INIT, HYPER, WCT, BABY, etc. If you were a 'dealer's trader' aiming to maximize profits, how would you operate at that moment?

If I were the dealer, I would have a few basic judgments:

1. The moment BN announces the spot is when liquidity is the most abundant; you must sell at that time or you won't have another chance later. Generally, the larger the market cap, the more unlocked, so you must find a way to sell quickly.

2. Currently, the market isn't very good, and buying liquidity is definitely lacking, making it easier to drive up prices while distributing chips for sale. Therefore, you can see that new coins listed will rise 1-2 times regardless of their market cap, and there's another layer where BN requires a price increase.

3. The 'stronger' the expectation for an altcoin, the worse the incremental liquidity when it goes live; conversely, the less expected, the better the incremental liquidity when it goes live. For example, when WCT was proposed on the 15th, most people were not optimistic, and no one could have thought it would go on the UP exchange, yet it performed even better afterwards.

4. High positions cannot sustain the market, while low positions still have some opportunities, which is somewhat similar to the above.

You will find that in this game, the answer is always 'pouring in'; the stronger the 'expectation' on BN's spot, the faster it needs to be poured because if the 'dealer' doesn't run, others who are ambushed must run as well.

The dealer's initiative in pulling up from low positions will be much stronger because the value of the BN shell provides some degree of price support.

When trading on the secondary market, you must adopt a 'counterparty' mentality. Don't fantasize about how BN will perform; instead, imagine yourself as the least strategic dealer and ask yourself how to maximize profits in this situation. Usually, the answer you come up with is the final result.

Friday closed higher, will altcoins rise over the weekend?

On Friday's close, Bitcoin broke 95. After the close, altcoins did not immediately drop, remaining at a high level. Various signs indicate that we might see a good increase in altcoins over the weekend. Notably, $PEPE and $BONK are currently also on the rise.

During the rebound in May and June 2024, some altcoins had significant rebounds, even reaching new highs. If the rebound expands in scale, it is possible that we will see some altcoins continue to rise.

Returning to this weekend, I believe altcoins should continue to rise. Because the sentiment this Friday is relatively optimistic, Bitcoin reached a new high, and there has been no sign of a top on the order book level, with no further macro negative news in the short term.

It is still possible for Bitcoin to continue rising towards the 96400-98000 range on Monday, even though 95 is a relatively good long-term take-profit position. The peak may be 95600, or it could be the peak after another rise next week.

Currently, I still believe there will be a pullback to around 83 in early May. We will see and explore the market trends later.

Tomorrow is the last trading day of this week, and starting next week, it will be the time to contend with GDP. In the latest data, GDPNow has once again lowered the first quarter GDP of the United States. This data will be an important basis for determining the trading difficulty in May.

Returning to Bitcoin data, although BTC's price has seen a slight pullback, investor sentiment remains very stable. The turnover rate has decreased, and investors who have recently bought the dip have started to accelerate their exit. Meanwhile, earlier investors and those at a loss are still remaining calm and observing. The support level around $83,000 is gradually showing signs of collapse, mainly because it has not undergone a long period of testing.

On the contrary, the positions between $93,000 and $98,000 are gradually increasing, and the stability of these investors is likely to be higher. Especially those who did not exit around $74,000 are now more composed. Most of these investors are likely not short-term investors anymore.

Yesterday, BTC experienced a slight pullback, which was in line with expectations. Attention should still be paid to the tariff process and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut process. The short-term increase was rapid, and it is expected to continue consolidating and repairing during the day. Previously accumulated holdings can be appropriately reduced, as the longer-term market trend is recovering. Be patient and wait.

The second-tier coins followed BTC's pullback in sync, which was expected. Those who entered the market earlier can reduce their holdings appropriately. Large holdings should be patiently waited for stabilization. The expectation for the day is to maintain consolidation and a corrective market. Altcoins are following the mainstream for synchronization with minor fluctuations. Be patient and wait for the mainstream to stabilize before taking action.

Focus on the primary market; BSC is becoming more active. It is time to start directly buying MEME-type coins, as the BSC ecosystem is expected to recover.

Share some altcoins that have just triggered the weekly bottom divergence signal.

Some signals have just been confirmed, while others have already entered the structural evolution stage.

To avoid being misinterpreted, let me clarify the understanding logic:

1. Bottom divergence ≠ reversal. It only means that compared to coins without divergence, these have more observation value and are more likely to show structural opportunities.

2. Missing the left side is normal. It’s impossible to want to catch the rise while requiring extremely low risk on the right side. Beginners are only suited for right-side trading and must give up the initial rebound period.

3. "Divergence" is just a structural signal and does not have the ability to predict future trends or provide specific buy/sell points, so don’t treat it as a universal answer.

4. It’s not a prompt for you to "go all in immediately," but a reminder that these coins can be "strategically applied." For example, I prefer to focus on buying when they pull back to the 4-hour EMA moving average group, with the stop-loss placed just below the moving average.