Last night, there were no surprises in interest rates, Powell's speech was hawkish, leading to a wave of needle spikes in the market. The market reaction shows that the core influencing the trend is not Powell's speech, but whether Trump will pressure him on monetary policy. Currently, the expectation for a rate cut in September is less than 50%, and it cannot be ruled out that Trump will speed up the announcement of the successor to the Federal Reserve Chair.
After this round of operations, US stocks, the cryptocurrency market, and gold experienced sharp spikes up and down, with little change in price, and many people lost their positions.
That night, a total of 144,246 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $431 million, long positions liquidated at $34.3 million, and short positions liquidated at $87.83 million. Long positions have been mostly cleared, and further declines would damage the structure.
In the context of a bull market, bulls just need to learn to catch the 'needle' during sharp declines. The current key turning points to watch are: tomorrow's monthly closing, the non-farm data at 20:30 tomorrow night, and next Monday's weekly closing.
The 'golden pit' that appeared in the middle of the night is truly helpless?
Let’s say we had a bumper harvest that night; DOGE goes without saying, accurately hitting the first entry point at 0.212, it is recommended to reduce positions and keep a base position.
BTC
Entered BTC precisely at 116,411, only 200 points away from 115,500 without triggering, already securing nearly $2000 in profit, it is recommended to reduce positions and keep a base position.
Today's strategy: Support at 116,411 / 115,000; Resistance: none. 119,200, although a key level, is not suitable for shorting after the spike this morning due to market sentiment being volatile. The main strategy remains to long on pullbacks.
ETH
Aside from what was mentioned in last night's internal meeting, Ethereum's concern about 3720 not being able to place an order, the first point of 3645 was 30 dollars short of hitting the needle, but this does not hinder BTC and DOGE from securing profits! Congratulate yourself!
Today's strategy: Support at 3,605 / 3,486 / 3,339; Resistance: none. Similar to BTC, it is not suitable to go short right now. The market interest rate decision warning has been lifted; approaching the weekend and end of the month, K-line fluctuations have increased, but the trend is more attractive.
A fan asked: Did the ancient giant whale sell all of the 80,000 $BTC?
On-chain data shows that last week, a giant whale sold 80,000 BTC through Galaxy, with some flowing into four exchanges: Binance, OKX, Bybit, and Coinbase.
The current market has digested most of the sell-off, total exchange inventory is decreasing, indicating strong buying sentiment, and the risk of a market crash is reduced.
However, details show that Binance, OKX, and Bybit still have about 15,000 BTC unprocessed (approximately 10,000 on Binance, about 3,000 on OKX, about 3,000 on Bybit), while Coinbase has processed about 5,000 BTC with a large amount of withdrawals. The selling risk from non-US exchanges still exists, while Coinbase, mainly composed of US investors, shows stronger buying power.
In short: the market fluctuates back and forth at high levels, still the same saying, do not chase highs and cut lows. Just refer to high shorts and low longs before the range is broken.
What is a concise trading plan logic? It revolves around three judgment branches (understand in conjunction with the image below).
1. Identify trend direction: divided into bullish (mainly going long), oscillating (shorting previous highs, going long on previous lows, or waiting for a breakout), bearish (mainly going short);
2. Confirming price position: the trend itself does not constitute a trading signal; the key is whether the price is close to support or resistance levels. In a bullish scenario, consider going long only if the price is above support; in a bearish scenario, consider going short only if the price is below resistance; do not trade before reaching key levels.
3. Decision on whether to enter the market: each trade must simultaneously meet three conditions: favorable direction (clear trend), appropriate position (support/resistance levels), and matched rhythm (waiting for trigger signals).
