Yesterday, U.S. stocks plummeted, and the cryptocurrency market followed suit. I took a look, and the washout has almost finished. Last night, a total of 161,987 people globally were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $711 million, primarily affecting long positions.
A showdown between bulls and bears is imminent.
Bitcoin (BTC) has begun testing the key support levels of $113,000 and $112,000. Whether these supports hold largely depends on the stability of U.S. stocks.
Recently, market sentiment has been low, and short-selling pressure is gradually increasing. If Bitcoin falls to $102,000, it could trigger a liquidation of over $2.3 billion in longs; conversely, if it rises to $125,000, it could wipe out nearly $3.9 billion in shorts. It seems like something big is about to happen. How do you think the market manipulators will play this round?
Endless bottom fishing, volume increases during declines, no volume during rises, like boiling a frog in warm water.
Both Bitcoin and Ethereum's 4-hour charts are in a decline, with no solid bullish candles. It feels like we've forgotten what bullish candles look like over the past two days. Recovering from a significant volume drop is not that easy! Not to mention the issue of liquidity, the market sentiment alone does not encourage anyone to gamble; one must trade according to the trend and resist the urge to chase tops or probe bottoms. Sooner or later, one will get caught.
Impact of U.S. stocks and the macro economy
The degree of division in America is as profound as the division in Ethereum! Trump complains that 'the rate cut is too late,' while Powell emphasizes 'the independence of the Federal Reserve.' Political opposition has deepened the rifts in the U.S.
The significant drop in ETH is due to the 'outrageous' revision of non-farm payroll data: the employment figures for May and June plummeted from 291,000 to 31,000. Non-farm payroll is a key basis for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. This dismal data raised the expectation of a rate cut in September from 45% to 75%. However, the substantial revision of the data has been questioned as 'fabrication + political alignment,' with Trump, the Federal Reserve, and the Labor Department all viewed as part of a 'sham.'
Although the expectation of interest rate cuts has risen, the uncertainty of risk assets has not dissipated. There is a severe divergence among ETH whales: bearish giants are resolutely selling, while bulls are still hesitating to find a bottom.
Reviewing the market corrections over the past few days.
Whether it's a 10%-20% profit from short-term trades or a steady layout for medium-term investments, clear and actionable guidance is provided.
Trade according to market trends, focusing on two major lines.
BTC
Last night, Bitcoin touched the second intraday range of 112,000-113,500, with a low of 112,660. It is currently consolidating around 113,600, and investors may consider exiting to preserve capital.
Key points for BTC this weekend: support levels 112000, 109500, 107500; resistance levels 114500, 115500, 116411.
ETH
Last night, Ethereum experienced significant price fluctuations, with the first wave hitting a low of 3537.5, close to the predicted 3545 (down from 3554.5). It rebounded to a high of 3585, with a range of only 30-40 dollars. Without setting profit targets in advance, it's hard to exit unscathed. The second point at 3486 was precisely hit, providing opportunities to exit at break-even or with small profits when calculated at an average price of 3520.25.
Key points for ETH this weekend: support levels 3339-3354, resistance levels 3605, 3715.
Last night's rebound was weak; the first half of the night, ETH did not break the MA250 on the 5-minute line, indicating weakness. The new low in the early morning aligns with technical indicators.
Weekend trading advice: both long and short positions can be taken. Shorts need to wait for signals of upward spikes, while longs should wait for double bottoms or volume divergence signals in the early morning. Strictly set profit and loss limits, trade according to the trend, and avoid chasing highs or cutting losses!
