Suki_

After the formal announcement of the equal tariff policy, it reached the bearish outlook for the US stock market at -16% and BTC at -35%, marking the end of the short-term largest bearish event. The previous short positions were closed for profit, preparing to open a phase-long position.
First, this round of long position strategies is divided into two phases;
Phase 1 Confirmation of bullish trend
Phase 1: A technical rebound long position based on technical factors and the realization of phase space.
In February, when the US stock market fell by -10%, BTC had already dropped by -30%. This round of long positions is a temporary short-term bet on a rebound, and it is considered short-term because the tariff policies had not yet been fully announced. Therefore, as mentioned in the historical patterns of the decline of the US stock market and BTC (predicting the second quarter), this rebound is limited;

Previously, in (US stocks and BTC downturn historical pattern 3—Second Quarter Forecast), I had preset the target range for the US stock downturn (-12.5%—-16%) and three main reasons for the decline. The decline was ultimately due to the pull of tariffs, leading US stocks to drop to the third target of -20% in early April. It was originally anticipated that the -20% would require a rebound after the negative tariff news was exhausted, but it actually occurred with the implementation of tariffs and China’s unexpectedly high mutual tariffs, as well as market concerns about recession leading to a preemptive flight to safety. After this round of tariffs, BTC also showed strong performance in stages, with a decline ratio of only 1:2, not reaching 1:3, but the trend direction and the completion of the short strategy were quite satisfactory.

In this round, the macro environment experienced high inflation and aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve in 2022, and started showing signs of turning in early 2023 (slowing rate hikes, increasing market expectations for pauses or even rate cuts); global liquidity began to recover in stages, and risk assets (including cryptocurrencies) began to rebound, primarily going through six phases; each phase has its own storyline, we analyze and compare from global economic environment/money policy/market liquidity/major events, the article content is purely work-related and may be overly 'dry', but patience will yield certain rewards...

The fluctuations of altcoins are mainly observed by selecting several larger market cap leaders such as ETH/BNB/XRP/LINK to analyze their performance across the four phases of BTC's previous market cycle.
Phase 1 (upward phase): August 2020 - April 2021
This bull market is fundamentally driven by the quantitative easing policies of global central banks (especially the Federal Reserve), which clearly maintained low interest rates until 2023, with QE continuing to purchase $120 billion in bonds each month. The Federal Reserve also indicated it would allow inflation to 'moderately exceed' targets.
Meanwhile, U.S. tech stocks showed strong profitability, with Apple reporting over $100 billion in revenue for Q4 2020; Amazon's cloud services and e-commerce business exploded, with annual growth exceeding 40%; Tesla continued to be profitable, pushing its market value to nearly $100 billion; Facebook and Google experienced a strong rebound in digital advertising. The profitability of tech giants reinforced the investment philosophy of 'future value,' leading to significant capital embracing 'decentralized technology,' with leveraged assets becoming prevalent, a surge in derivative trading, and borrowing for mining emerging, resulting in a DeFi explosion. The concept of BTC as digital gold was accepted, transitioning from a 'speculative coin' to an 'institutional-grade asset,' with institutions like PayPal/MicroStrategy/Tesla buying BTC, greatly enhancing market confidence, while retail investors formed a chasing rally effect, further heating up the bull market.

The cyclical changes of BTC and altcoins became perplexing after the BTC ETF was approved. During several surges in BTC, the expected altcoin season never materialized. From April to September 2024 and January to March 2025, when BTC underwent a 30% retracement, with the exception of XRP/SOL/BNB, almost all altcoins experienced a 'return to where they came from'. We will look at the relationship between BTC and altcoins through a series of four articles on the topic.
(The relationship between BTC and altcoins (1) Detailed explanation of BTC during the 2020-2022 cycle)

Due to the implementation of the tariff policy, the target range of -12.5% to -16.5% per share from the last analysis has been reached.

The impact of tariffs, I believe, is two-fold.
One part is the substantial implementation of policies, which has already occurred. The data provided by Trump represents the biggest negative impact of the current tariff policy. Countries' countermeasures are led by China, which has the strongest stance, followed by the EU 'proposing countermeasures against US steel tariffs', Canada 'will take countermeasures, responding with a 25% tariff on car tariffs', France 'calls for a pause on investments in the US', and other countries making mild statements. The pulling and firmness of various countries are basically within market expectations, so the negative impact is limited.

After the last wave of U.S. stock decline of -10% is completed, a rebound occurs due to the temporary easing of panic and issues like tariff easing. Currently, we are experiencing a rebound period. I believe that until there is a change in the big macroeconomic environment (tariffs/inflation/recession expectations/slowdown in tech stock EPS growth, etc.), the rebound is limited and will not exceed the 5.8% and 7.2% positions in U.S. Stocks Chart 3.

U.S. Stocks Chart 3↓

In fact, I believe the most it can rebound is to 5.8% (with the remaining increase of 0.98% as of 2025/3/25/04:00 closing at 5767 points), because while the easing of tariffs is a negative factor and eliminates uncertainty, it also marks the beginning of specific tariff policy contention, and the start of the 'macro data validation period' for the inflation impact brought by tariffs, as well as the start of Q1 earnings season. There are still many uncertainties, and the tendency for negative factors outweighs the positive ones.

When the S&P 500 pulls back 10% from its highest point, it is at the third target level (61.8) for the S&P 500 weekly level and the target resonance area of the daily level form 1.13-1.618. Often, when a complete shape target meets a larger cycle's key point, there will be a rebound in the overall major trend (US Stocks Chart 1 is my initial sketch for predicting a short-term stop and rebound).
US Stocks Chart 1 ↓

Ultimately reaching on March 14, as shown in US Stocks Chart 2 ↓ (US Stocks Chart 2 is a daily level chart, while US Stocks Chart 1 is a weekly level chart. Due to the software having a 'current cycle only' feature, there may be slight differences in some lines that are not displayed simultaneously when viewed from both cycles).

In analyzing the downward trends of the US stock market and BTC, I first review it from the most easily understood technical perspective, also known as the 'artist's' viewpoint. This perspective will definitely be criticized by many, but I believe that corroborating the certainty of an event from multiple angles and dimensions is not wrong. I originally came from an artist background, but later found the technical perspective to be too singular, so I began to study macroeconomics, the fundamentals of the US stock market, etc. However, relying solely on technical analysis, I achieved considerable returns between the bull and bear markets of 2019-2022; currently, I apply technical analysis based on macroeconomics, using the US stock market as a foundation, with BTC as the primary target and altcoins within the overall trend as secondary targets, seeking the best technical entry and exit points for buying and selling within relatively certain trends and cycles.