The maximum negative impact of tariffs has basically landed, and the focus moving forward is on inflation and tech stock earnings reports. If inflation remains stable under tariffs, a rate cut can be implemented; if it rises without retreating, a rate cut will be difficult. Tech stock earnings reports represent profitability, and currently, Apple is the most affected by tariffs. Although Apple set up factories in India back in 2017, the core components are still made in China, with only the final assembly taking place in India, applying an 'Indian-made' label to reduce taxes.

If Apple’s application for tariff exemption is unsuccessful, the manufacturing cost of an iPhone 16 is about $550, and importing from China would incur an additional $300 in taxes. Importing from India is half the cost compared to China, but India’s production capacity is simply insufficient. Currently, India’s annual production capacity is about 25 million units, satisfying local demand of 10 million units, with the remainder all shipped to the US, only meeting half of the US demand.

If Apple moves its supply chain back to the US, even relocating just 10% would take 3 years and cost $30 billion, and even if relocated to the US, Apple would have to sell at $3500, which consumers are unlikely to accept.

Therefore, Apple’s earnings report expectations are generally poor; the next focus will be on the guidance following the release of Apple’s Q1 earnings report.