In analyzing the downward trends of the US stock market and BTC, I first review it from the most easily understood technical perspective, also known as the 'artist's' viewpoint. This perspective will definitely be criticized by many, but I believe that corroborating the certainty of an event from multiple angles and dimensions is not wrong. I originally came from an artist background, but later found the technical perspective to be too singular, so I began to study macroeconomics, the fundamentals of the US stock market, etc. However, relying solely on technical analysis, I achieved considerable returns between the bull and bear markets of 2019-2022; currently, I apply technical analysis based on macroeconomics, using the US stock market as a foundation, with BTC as the primary target and altcoins within the overall trend as secondary targets, seeking the best technical entry and exit points for buying and selling within relatively certain trends and cycles.


First, let's look at the US stock market. This article only analyzes the significant declines in the S&P 500 over the past 25 years;
From September 1, 2000, to October 1, 2002 (a decline of 2 years), the Internet bubble dropped by 50%, recovering in 5 months;
From November 2007 to March 2009 (a decline of 1.5 years), the subprime mortgage crisis resulted in a 57% drop, reversing in 1 month;
From January 2020 to March 2020 (a decline of 3 months), the pandemic caused a 36% drop, reversing in 1 month.
From January 2022 to September 2022 (a decline of 9 months), interest rate hikes caused a 27.5% drop, recovering in 6 months.
In other words, given the current concerns over tariffs, rising inflation expectations, and slowing GDP growth, assuming there is no economic recession, the US stock market is unlikely to decline more than 30%, and the recovery period will be between 1 to 6 months;
BTC (due to the cyclical nature of BTC, statistics will start from a reference cycle)
From April 11, 2021, to April 26, 2021, a pullback in the bull market saw a decline of 26.76%, with a consolidation period of 3 days.
From May 10, 2021, to May 19, 2021, following China's ban, a decline of 49.5%, with a consolidation period of 2 months.
From November 2021 (after reaching an all-time high) to June 2022 (the US interest rate hike cycle + LUNA crash + FTX incident) (a decline of 74.52%), there was a 6-month period of consolidation.
From January 12, 2022, before the ETF approval, to January 23, 2023 (a decline of 21.27%), with a 16-day consolidation period.
From March 2024 to August 2024 (a decline of 33.98%), with a 3-month consolidation period.
In other words, the ratio of BTC’s rise and fall to that of the US stock market is basically 1:3; while BTC's pullbacks are typically between 30% and 50% (excluding the 74.52% decline due to the 2022 China ban + LUNA crash + continuous pressure from US interest rate hike expectations).

Currently, in the context of tariffs, rising inflation expectations, and slowing GDP growth, coupled with the overvaluation of the US stock market, slowing EPS growth of tech stocks, if the US stock market does decline, it will not exceed -30%, (the US stock market has already declined by -10%); this conclusion may seem a bit like carving a boat to seek a sword, but from the perspective of US stock market valuation and EPS growth, it oddly fits this maximum result of -30%;
As of March 21, the PE ratio of the S&P 500 is 26.55, whereas from 1954 to the end of 2019, the average PE ratio of the S&P 500 was about 17 times. Currently, the market expects a 19% EPS growth for the US stock market in 2025, which means that if the prices of the top 7 tech stocks remain unchanged over the next 10 months to 1 year, and the earnings report meets the market's expected EPS growth of 19%, then the PE decline will be about 19% (which, when combined with the already declined -10%, results in exactly -30%).
This is also based on the bear market of 2022, where the PE ratio of the US stock market was at 21.7 times at the end of December of the same year. Currently, some institutions predict that the S&P 500 will drop to 4240 points (-30%) by 2025; the basis for this prediction is that the PE ratio of the S&P 500 will fall to 17 times, and the EPS growth will be adjusted down by 10% from the current market expectation. I believe this expectation is quite extreme.
Next, I will release the predictions for the trends of the US stock market and BTC in the second quarter in two parts!