Bitcoin has experienced mild volatility over the past week, with a brief but notable drop late in the week. Prices initially performed strongly, surging to nearly $110,000 before a sharp correction on June 12-13. The pullback caused the price of Bitcoin to fall back to just above $103,000. As of Monday, however, the asset has begun to recover and is trading at around $106,603.
Despite recent price volatility, long-term forecasts from a recent study suggest that prices will behave very differently under certain market constraints.
Long term price model
One of these studies is a forecast report by Murray Rudd, recently shared by Joao Paulo Mayall, founder of QR Capital, which launched Latin America’s first Bitcoin ETF. Specifically, the report forecasts Bitcoin prices until April 2035 based on different daily float extraction rates.
The study simulates a scenario where a decline in supply leads to increased demand pressure, assuming a constant demand multiplier of 30. The chart outlines four withdrawal scenarios: 1,000 BTC per day, 2,000 BTC per day, 3,000 BTC per day, and 4,000 BTC per day, each presenting a different price path.
It is worth noting that all scenarios show that price growth will accelerate starting in 2024. By mid-2026, prices for all models will converge towards $444,000. By early 2027, the forecast results will continue this trend, with prices for all scenarios approaching $1 million. However, by the end of 2027, the models will diverge and price growth will be faster due to increased withdrawals.
In the 3,000 BTC per day scenario, the Bitcoin price is forecast to reach approximately $2 million. In the 4,000 BTC per day scenario, the price will rise further to approximately $2.2 million by the same time. By 2031, the 4,000 BTC per day model shows that the Bitcoin price will exceed $5 million.
Notably, the Bitcoin price would need to rise by about 316.5% from its current price of $106,603 to reach the $444,000 milestone expected by mid-2026.
Wider Industry Forecast
Several industry leaders have also made similar predictions to the Murray Rudd model. For example, Michael Saylor, executive chairman of Strategy, recently said in an interview with Bloomberg that Bitcoin is unlikely to return to a bear market in the short term. He believes that Bitcoin has passed the most volatile phase and is currently heading towards a long-term price level between $500,000 and $1 million.
Brandon Green, chief of staff at BTC Inc., also highlighted the structural changes in Bitcoin accumulation, suggesting that this cycle may not follow the typical one-year correction of the previous four-year pattern.
Green predicts that this ongoing cycle could last until late 2026 or early 2027, with Bitcoin’s price reaching $1 million, citing accelerating institutional adoption and fiscal policy changes as key drivers.
Likewise, former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao predicted that Bitcoin’s target price will be $1 million by the end of this cycle.
Market signals suggest selling pressure is declining
In addition to these predictions, recent on-chain metrics also suggest a shift in market behavior. Data from IntoTheBlock shows that Bitcoin exchange inflows have continued to decline over multiple time periods.
Over the past 30 days, the net inflow of Bitcoin to exchanges has fallen by 56.26%. Similar declines have been seen over the 7-day and 24-hour periods, which have fallen by 14.34% and 8.43%, respectively.
This trend could indicate a reduction in selling pressure as the amount of tokens flowing into exchanges decreases. While this research focuses on long-term models, these short-term signals provide additional context for supply dynamics and price action.
Disclaimer: The content of this article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.
