Bitcoin's two major lifelines this week! Falling below 103,700 may lead to a direct plunge to 95,600. Can the bulls hold the last defense line?

Although Bitcoin has ended its consecutive decline in the short term, potential pullback risks still exist. This week, attention should be focused on two key support levels:

First defense line 103,700 USD: Selling pressure from long-term holders (LTH) may become a turning point for the market. If on-chain data shows an acceleration in LTH holding transfers, the price may drop to this range. This position is also the lower boundary of the oscillation platform for the past month. Losing this level will trigger stop-loss selling pressure from quantitative trading;

Ultimate support 93,264 USD: If the 103,700 defense line is broken, the market may further drop to the upper line of the consolidation center for Q4 2024. A large number of spot long positions are gathered here. Once it falls below this level, it may trigger market panic expectations of a 'second bottom'.

Bullish reversal signal: If the price quickly breaks through the resistance level of 106,265 USD, it is expected to hit the 108,000 USD target in the short term, while declaring the bearish logic invalid. The current market's long-short battle intensifies, and it is recommended to closely track on-chain holding changes and the volume break through at the 106,000 USD level. This is a personal opinion and for reference only!