6.19 Crypto Market Morning Report: Divergent Patterns Under Geopolitical Risks and Asset Rotation

1. Market Dynamics: Trends of Mainstream Coins and Characteristics of Capital Migration

1. The correlation between BTC and US stocks has weakened, showing structural migration of funds.

2. ETH is dragged down by market sentiment, with upward momentum limited.

3. SOL has become the preferred target for bears, with insufficient rebound momentum.

2. Global News: New Directions in the Industry Under Policy and Technological Changes

(A) Regulatory and Policy Dynamics

The state has passed the "Digital Asset Tax Relief Act," which exempts BTC payments under $200 from sales tax, becoming the first tax-friendly region in the US for small-scale crypto payments, expected to promote local merchants' acceptance of cryptocurrency transactions.

(B) Institutional and Market Innovation

Crypto unicorn starts IPO process

The digital asset trading platform FalconX has submitted an S-1 registration statement to the SEC, planning to go public on NASDAQ in Q4 2025, aiming to raise $500 million.

The fusion of TradFi and DeFi accelerates.

3. Market Outlook: Strategic Responses Under Emotional Disconnection

Currently, the crypto market and traditional financial market show a significant emotional split: US stocks have been hitting new highs driven by interest rate cut expectations, while crypto assets remain under pressure due to geopolitical risks (escalating conflict in the Middle East) and regulatory uncertainties (SEC delaying ETF approvals). In this divergent pattern, investors should pay attention to the following key points:

Capital rotation risks: After the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates (4.25%-4.50%), Powell acknowledged high uncertainty in economic forecasts, and market expectations for a "soft landing" are heating up, which may accelerate the flow of funds from cryptocurrencies to US tech stocks;

Structural opportunity exploration: Compliance sectors (such as FalconX-related stocks), AI + blockchain integration projects (GPT-5 ecosystem), and policy-friendly regions (Ohio compliance projects) present possibilities for excess returns;

Risk control priority: Caution is needed for liquidity-depleted coins like SOL that may further decline, BTC should focus on the $103,000 support level, and ETH should reduce positions if it falls below $2,480.

Conclusion: Under the dual uncertainties of geopolitical conflict and policy games, the market may continue to experience wide fluctuations in the short term, but the long-term trend of institutionalization and compliance remains unchanged. Investors should maintain flexibility in their positions and accurately grasp the structural opportunities brought by capital migration in an emotionally disconnected market environment. #美联储FOMC会议