十七的交易笔记

$BTC broke through the pressure zone of sideways trading yesterday, pulled back a bit, and then rebounded by over 1500 points. Unfortunately, the rebound did not exceed the previous high of 87500 and fell back into last week's trading range. Currently, it is consolidating at a high range, and after the pullback, is this a false breakout or a false breakdown? In terms of trends: the small level is operating in the high range of 84000-84800, pay attention to whether it can break through and stabilize at the key position of 85300. If it breaks through again, a wave of upward momentum can be expected, after all, the recent market has been too sluggish and needs a pump to stimulate it! At the same time, pay attention to the short-term support level of 82500-83000, and the weekend is coming again, so there will be more sideways movement!

The tough days for bulls have finally ended, as the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged in March, and is finally moving from halving QT to pausing QT. 'Changes in Federal Reserve liquidity:

Balance sheet reduction -> halving QT -> stopping QT -> starting easing (QE)

The analogy to Bitcoin's trend is: decline -> stop decline -> sideways -> start rising. The dot plot shows only two rate cuts this year, which is below market expectations.
The most regrettable part is the balance sheet reduction; although a pause was considered, it was only announced that the pace of reduction would slow.
The impact is not strong enough, but it can slowly inject liquidity into the market, which counts as a substantial minor positive.

$BTC has been oscillating within a 4-hour range, with 8200 having protective support below, and the market rebounding after large short positions were closed. In this indecisive position, my suggestion is to reduce operations. If you want to go long, you can wait for the 80300 position, and for shorting, you can wait for 86400.
Personally, I still lean towards buying after a rise and then a fall, at least touching the price of 86400 once before the daily line encounters resistance and declines. It is still recommended to chase the hot spots; otherwise, in a market without liquidity, both long and short positions are torturous.
The broader the landscape, after all, the Binance team (CZ) will undoubtedly strongly support the continuous development of BSC in the long term.

Last night, the US stock market fell again, continuing a pattern seen over the past week: rising during the day and approaching the US stock market opening, falling.
$BTC tested the support at 80,500 again and is now rebounding. The buy orders down to 80,000 are still quite strong, and currently, the market is oscillating within a very small range.
The current situation is that there is buying pressure in Asia, but as soon as the US stock market opens, there will be significant selling pressure.
Short-term profit-taking and the decline in US stock market led most investors to prefer not to stay in the market for too long, taking the profits they have earned. After a night of turmoil, the market returned to yesterday's rising starting point.

$BTC, even with favorable CPI news, can't fill the gap above; this market is still weak. Shorting at highs may not always be the right choice, but it's definitely the best one.
Looking at the support at 80500 first; if the support holds, it can continue to bounce back. I hope to close this gap within this week. Whether it can break through to a price of 91000 depends on retail investor sentiment. Tonight, there will also be macro data PPI.

$ETH
So the E in ETH is the e of emo....

Please see the image below:
It has been stuck around the 1900 price, unable to go up or down. Waiting for when it stands above 2000 to consider. Sigh, no amount of talk can change the fundamentals.

$BTC fell to a low of 76,606 yesterday; congratulations to those who bottom-fished and did not cut losses.
As long as there is good news, prices will rise. Look, it has risen back to 81,000.
In this market, stability is more important than profit.
Recently, Bitcoin has been hovering near the bull-bear line, rebounding every time it falls by 25%-30%, indicating a normal adjustment within the bull market.
Many long-term holders are taking the opportunity to increase their positions, and large institutions haven't run away; they are secretly accumulating coins. The market is now more rational, unlike the chaotic ups and downs in the past.

This year's most surprising market event is still ETH... After being supported by ETFs, Trump's core crypto asset reserves, and calls from Trump's son to build positions, ETH surprisingly halved in value over two months, with the extent and speed of decline comparable to the peak of the last bull market.

The situation is not looking good, and the market seems to be capitulating.
"312" market preview?
Bitcoin hits a new low, Ethereum plummets, U.S. stocks crashed last night, Tesla's stock price halved!
Reasons for the crash: recession ➜ U.S. stocks ➜ cryptocurrency market.

$BTC: 1 hour divergence correction, price rebounds after a drop, currently at the upper boundary of the 1-hour range, showing strength at a smaller scale.
Although still declining in the 4-hour chart, the K-line has a stop-loss signal, currently facing resistance at the 4-hour MA7 of 80,500.
The daily chart has not shown a stop-loss signal, yesterday's K-line was insufficient.
Overall, the hourly stop-loss has a rebound but the trend is weak, focusing on the 4-hour resistance levels of 83,000 and Fibonacci 83,500.

have a good weekend!
From the current price, we can know the general impact of the relevant speech this morning.
Unfortunately, Trump did not speak out to boost the market, but fortunately, the price did not fall sharply and Bitcoin still remained above $85,000.

U.S. stocks also showed a slight upward trend at the close.
Since 5 a.m., the market has been relatively stable during the Asian trading session, with no major fluctuations.
However, as the weekend is approaching, market liquidity will be extremely scarce and market makers will exit the market. At this time, a very small amount of funds or chips may cause large price fluctuations, so investors must be vigilant.

Good afternoon, esteemed holders of BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, and ADA.
Last night, Trump suddenly announced that he would issue an executive order to advance cryptocurrencies like BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, and ADA into the strategic reserve of the beautiful country.
Trump's announcement, combined with the upcoming cryptocurrency conference next Friday, has greatly increased the positive expectations for the cryptocurrency market, leading to effective gains.
A piece of good news regarding the strategic reserve has led to a strong rebound in Bitcoin. This is also why I've been telling everyone not to be in cash, as there are too many positive expectations for Bitcoin this year.
Bitcoin suddenly surged last night, rising 10,000 points overnight, returning to 95,000, then falling back to 92,000, with a daily increase of 10%, up nearly 20% from three days ago's low.

The policy pains of Trump are beginning to show, and market sentiment has entered extreme panic.
Need to pay attention to the $NVDA financial report after the close of U.S. stocks tomorrow morning. As the banner woman of this round of U.S. stock bull market, she has supported the U.S. stock market single-handedly. Let's see if she can save the day this time.
1- Pay attention to Friday's PCE data;
2- Pay attention to the policy dynamics of Trump and the Federal Reserve;
Of course, next week's non-farm payrolls are more critical. Will the uncertainty of policies and the large layoffs in the Department of Efficiency affect the reduction of new jobs and the rise in unemployment rates?
Bitcoin is currently down to 88,000, and ETH is down to 2500.
At this time point, it is actually an opportunity to ambush altcoins. Bitcoin has broken key support levels, which will squeeze some capital out. Some quality altcoins have seen their market values drop significantly, and a small amount of capital can lead to a surge.

Trump announced that tariffs imposed on Canada and Mexico will take effect after March 4. Last night, U.S. stocks fell along with Bitcoin, and Bitcoin brought down the altcoins, resulting in a significant drop across the board. There are various opinions on this crash; some say it was caused by the U.S. stock market collapse, others say it was due to the bill not passing, and some attribute it to panic after Bybit. Recently, ETFs have also been in a state of reduced outflow. In fact, it is a period of market transformation, and the final direction has chosen to go down. However, this is also an opportunity; the overall trend of the U.S. dollar index is still downward, and BTC has realized prices significantly higher than the coin price. Simply put, bearish in the short term, bullish in the long term, waiting for a deep squat.

Bitcoin has closed at the weekly level without too many signals. This weekend, on Sunday night, the market widened its decline and began to test the support and resistance level below. It is currently consolidating at the 96,000 level.
The overall market is currently in a weak adjustment state and has returned to 96,000. The highest rebound was 9.87 and then came back. The rebound force weakened and the high point was lowering. It fluctuated within the range of 3,000 US dollars. Next, focus on the range of 94,500-95,500.
BTC has been fluctuating for half a month since the No. 3 spike. The market has had sufficient short-term consolidation time and has to face new choices this week.

Yesterday's CPI data was negative for Bitcoin; after the data was released, Bitcoin quickly dropped, as expected, from 97k down, then quickly rebounded, testing 94k low before bouncing back to 97k.

Currently, the entire altcoin market lacks a unified consensus guide. In the next few days, pay attention to the BSC ecosystem and related MEME.
CZ on the BSC chain is driving the ecosystem's growth. Since yesterday, CEX's BAKE, CAKE, BNX, etc., have started to soar, with BAKE being the most explosive, doubling directly.
Everybody was looking for CZ's dog last night. It seems CZ has figured it out; now everyone is waiting to see what CZ's dog's name is until he announces it.

On Thursday, Bitcoin plummeted below $100,000, hitting a low of $98,897.

Feeling confused again? The interest rate decision result in the morning was a 25 basis point cut, but the market crashed. It usually goes up after a rate cut, but Powell's words caused the current situation.
In the last 24 hours, a total of 294,844 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $849 million.

Powell made it clear that the Federal Reserve does not like Bitcoin and does not want to use it as a strategic reserve.
He emphasized: Although Congress can amend laws to allow the Federal Reserve to hold Bitcoin, this is not the direction he wants to see.

Bitcoin skyrocketed to $107,773 this morning, setting a new historical high!

Every time it refreshes a new high, there are always concerns about a pullback, but such worries often stem from psychological factors. We are still in the FOMO period in Asia, and the real pullback signal worth paying attention to may have to wait until the US stock market opens.

This rise in Bitcoin is mainly due to MicroStrategy's stock entering the Nasdaq 100 index, and their CEO Michael Saylor has announced a significant increase in Bitcoin holdings.

This indicates that they see $100,000 for Bitcoin as just the beginning, so they continue to buy in large amounts.

The RWA track is hot again.
Initially, BlackRock announced its entry into the RWA field in April and launched the tokenized fund BUIDL on Ethereum.
This significant move will drive a strong surge in RWA tokens.
We have witnessed the first wave of growth.
RWA has also become the second most popular narrative in this cycle, next to Solana Memecoin.
Now that Trump has won the election, the beautiful country's policy direction has changed, and the market begins to favor the 'compliance' concept.
RWA (Real World Assets) is seen as the preferred track for Wall Street funds entering the crypto world, becoming a major theme in the current bull market.

Happy weekend!

Bitcoin's closing price has once again settled above $100,000, indicating a solid standing at this psychological level, which lays a good foundation for a continued upward attack. The next few days may continue to see fluctuations while seeking opportunities to break through this key level.

With the US stock market closed over the weekend, altcoin markets will take over. Some restless altcoins have already started a crazy rally in the past two days, and there will definitely be more wild performances over the weekend. If you notice any unusual movements early, you can jump in to catch a short-term rise, just remember to enter and exit quickly.

After the market and Ethereum experienced a spike yesterday, there was a direct second exploration.
The market hit a low of around 94,200.
Ethereum around 3,510.
Ethereum around 3,500.
It is already a good low-buy area. For those who previously made profits at the low, or for those who haven't entered yet, wanting to lay out again for ETH's hype next year, around 3,500 is completely a good entry point.
In a bull market, sharp drops are slow to recover; each sharp drop is a good opportunity to build positions again. The key is human panic or greed, always thinking about buying at lower prices. We should just enter according to our established plan.

Currently, sweet girl's judgment on the market is that the bull market has just begun:

The daily line is a long bearish candlestick with a long lower shadow, and the trading volume is more than three times that of the previous day, indicating a significant decline.

The rapid decline on the hourly level reached strong support at the daily MA30 line, quickly rebounding and forming a bearish candlestick with a long lower shadow, indicating that the bulls are trying to fight back, but ultimately the bears maintained the advantage.
The daily line level will continue to fluctuate widely, without a sharp drop, moving in a trend of oscillation and consolidation.

Bitcoin's rapid decline on the hourly level has led to a quick drop in altcoins; Bitcoin's fluctuation was less than 7%, while altcoins generally exceeded 30%, causing many people's leveraged positions to be directly liquidated.

Last weekend, Musk posted two interesting pictures on social media, one of a dog running in the city and another of him riding a pony.
The release of these two images triggered volatility in the MEME sector, with Babydog experiencing a daily increase of 90%, Doge also rising slightly, and PEPE reaching an all-time high last night.
The entire market is experiencing a small upsurge; this is the power of Musk.

It's Monday again. Let's look at some positive events that could bring certainty to the crypto market:
1- A large amount of capital may enter the market in January. FTX compensation has paid out 98% of retail investors in December, totaling $1.1 billion. It is expected that large compensations of $13.4-15.2 billion will occur in the first quarter, with a high probability of compensation in USDC, which is equivalent to the backing of over 100,000 Bitcoins. Even a small amount of capital flowing into the market constitutes a massive buying power.